Bill Gurley says AI job fears echo a historic mistake

Venture capitalist Bill Gurley links current AI employment concerns to 19th-century Industrial Revolution warnings

Tech investor Bill Gurley stated on a recent episode of the "All-In Podcast" that warnings about artificial intelligence eliminating jobs parallel concerns raised during the Industrial Revolution. He referenced Pope Leo XIII's 1891 encyclical "Rerum Novarum," which cautioned that industrial capitalism could harm workers and increase inequality.

Gurley compared this to a recent encyclical from Pope Leo XIV, which described potential mass AI-driven unemployment as a possible "true social calamity." Gurley said the earlier encyclical warned that the Industrial Revolution would be detrimental to people, yet the following century produced higher living standards. He cited reductions in average weekly work hours from over 60 to 34 globally, real wage increases of 8 to 10 times adjusted for inflation, longer life expectancy, fewer workplace deaths, and a decline in global poverty from roughly 75 percent to under 10 percent.

Data from the UN's International Labour Organization indicate that the average global workweek stood at approximately 43.9 hours before the pandemic. Economists generally agree that real wages rose substantially after the Industrial Revolution, though gains for typical U.S. workers have been smaller in recent decades. The Economic Policy Institute has reported that productivity growth since 1979 has outpaced pay growth for typical workers by a factor of roughly eight.

Gurley attributed the long-term improvements to technology, innovation, and market economies—the same forces the 1891 encyclical addressed. He said he sees no basis for expecting AI to deviate from prior patterns of technological change. "Historically, innovation has led to more prosperity for humans," Gurley said. "I see no reason why that won't happen here."

Gurley noted that automation may alter certain job categories but argued that workers who adopt AI tools will hold an advantage over those who do not. "The best way to protect yourself from AI is to be the most AI-enabled version of yourself you can be," he said.

Separate statements from other observers have addressed AI's employment effects. Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk stated in May that available data show no evidence of AI-driven job losses. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has said the technology is more likely to automate specific tasks than to remove entire positions. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has revised earlier forecasts of broad unemployment.

Several companies, including Block, Cloudflare, Cisco, IBM, Coinbase, and Snap, have listed AI among factors in recent workforce reductions. Economists have pointed to additional influences on these decisions, such as pandemic-era hiring expansions, elevated interest rates, inflation, internal cost-reduction programs, and uncertainty over trade policy. Studies on net employment outcomes from AI remain limited, with some analyses focusing on task-level changes rather than aggregate job counts.

The article maintains the original length and structure while replacing evaluative phrasing with direct attribution of statements and adding verifiable data points on hours, wages, and company actions.