New Polymarket Accounts Bet Big on Ceasefire Hours Before Announcement
Authority Laundering
How They Deceive You
Propaganda
Notable spin via unverified insider trading claims, sarcastic 'TACO' framing of Trump, and omissions of public bet signals like Pakistan's appeal.
Main Device
Authority Laundering
Amplifies Rep. Moore's unverified insider trading speculation without disclosing his pro-prediction market legislation and opinion piece.
Archetype
Anti-Trump GOP foreign policy critic
Channels a Republican congressman's voice to imply scandal in Trump admin while deploying left-leaning snark like 'TACO' to mock his resolve.
Deceives via one Rep's unverified claims implying insider trading scandal, omits public signals and his pro-market stance to heighten suspicion.
Writer's Worldview
“Anti-Trump GOP foreign policy critic”
6 findings · 4 omissions · 5 sources compared
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Narrative Analysis
Verdict: This Newsmax article effectively highlights verifiable blockchain data showing new Polymarket accounts profiting from well-timed "Yes" bets on a US-Iran ceasefire hours before Trump's April 7, 2026 announcement, echoing a confirmed pattern from January's Maduro events. However, it erodes trust with an unverified quote attributed to pro-prediction-market Rep. Blake Moore and selective framing that downplays public signals.
Reporting Strengths
The core investigation holds up:
- Precise data on bets: Details 50+ new wallets betting "Yes" pre-announcement, e.g., one turning $72,000 into $200,000 at 8.8-cent odds; another $125,500 profit. Sourced from Dune analytics on public blockchain—reproducible and factual.
- Legit pattern reference: Mentions similar new-account profits before Maduro's capture, verified by NPR, BBC, and PBS reports from January 2026.
- Timely context: Notes Trump's escalatory rhetoric ("a whole civilization will die tonight") contrasting with bets, building a prima facie case for scrutiny.
"An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts... placed substantial 'Yes' bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire."
This data-driven approach credits Polymarket's transparency while flagging anomalies.
Key Problems
Several claims falter under scrutiny:
- Unverified Moore quote: Attributes to Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT): “It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders..." No public record matches this on Polymarket or the ceasefire—searches of his statements yield zero hits.
- Misleading source portrayal: Frames Moore as pushing restrictions, ignoring his sponsorship of the Event Contract Enforcement Act (pro-prediction markets) and April 14 op-ed praising them (per his House website).
- Unsubstantiated patterns: Claims "similar clusters... repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran." General Polymarket concerns exist (e.g., Guardian reports), but no evidence of repeated new-account wins specifically on Iran military events.
- Unconfirmed market status: Says Polymarket marked the contract "disputed" due to ongoing Iranian restrictions/missiles. No records confirm this for the April 7 market.
- Loaded framing: Introduces "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) acronym from critics as a "phenomenon," implying bets exploited a Trump "habit" rather than pure insider info.
These inject doubt without backing.
Verifiable Omissions
- Public signal from Pakistan: Article claims "few signals" of a deal, but Pakistan publicly appealed for a two-week extension that day (Al Jazeera, The Hill, April 7). One wallet bet 12 minutes before Trump's post, when odds hit 33.7 cents—possibly reacting to this diplomacy.
- Moore's full record: Omits his pro-market legislation, asymmetrically presenting congressional views as uniformly alarmed.
These facts provide non-insider explanations for bet timing, altering the suspicion level.
Author/Outlet Context
Authors Ken Sweet (ex-AP economics reporter) and Christopher L. Keller contribute to Newsmax, a conservative outlet often skeptical of crypto speculation. No prior retractions noted on these authors, but Newsmax's opinionated style amplifies the TACO framing.
Coverage Comparison
- Polymarket's own pages (e.g., ceasefire extension market) emphasize neutral odds shifts (28% to 62%, $2.4M volume) and Pakistani mediation—data-focused, no insider suspicion.
- AP News covers similar bet anomalies with investigative tone but omits Moore quote/TACO, sticking closer to blockchain facts.
Bottom Line
Newsmax uncovers a compelling, evidence-based story on prediction-market red flags, meriting CFTC attention amid bipartisan insider-trading bills. But the bogus Moore quote and snark undermine it—fixable with verification. Strong on facts, weaker on sourcing rigor; readers should cross-check blockchain data directly.
Further Reading
- Polymarket: US x Iran Ceasefire Extended By – Market odds and volumes, neutral data view.
- Polymarket: Iran Diplomacy Ceasefire – Broader context with Pakistani mediation emphasis.
- AP News: Polymarket Iran Trump Ceasefire – Parallel suspicious-bets focus, less framing.
- Polymarket: US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal – Long-term odds progression for balance.
Neutral Rewrite
Here's how this article reads with loaded language removed and missing context included.
New Polymarket Accounts Place Bets on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Ahead of Announcement
By Ken Sweet and Christopher L. Keller
*April 9, 2026*
A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed bets on the possibility of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, leading to reported profits of hundreds of thousands of dollars for those accounts after the announcement.
The bets occurred hours before President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in a Truth Social post at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET on April 7. Earlier that day, Trump had posted on social media warning that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, conducted using the crypto analytics platform Dune, identified at least 50 accounts or wallets that placed "Yes" bets on the ceasefire market before the announcement. These were the first transactions recorded for each of these wallets.
One wallet, created around 10 a.m. ET on April 7, placed bets totaling approximately $72,000 at an average price of 8.8 cents per share. On Polymarket, shares for betting events are priced between $0 and $1, corresponding to estimated probabilities from 0% to 100%. This account later realized a profit of about $200,000 upon cashing out.
Another wallet, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this market, recorded a profit of $125,500.
A third wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's announcement, placed $31,908 in "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents per share, yielding an estimated profit of $48,500. The higher price at that time coincided with a public appeal from the government of Pakistan earlier on April 7, urging Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks, which may have influenced market odds.
Public blockchain data does not reveal the identities of wallet controllers. Polymarket employs proxy smart contract wallets, allowing a single user to operate multiple accounts. Only Polymarket holds internal data that could distinguish new users from existing ones creating additional accounts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
The April 7 U.S.-Iran ceasefire market on Polymarket has been reported as labeled "disputed" by the platform, due to ongoing Iranian restrictions on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile activity in the region. Resolution of such disputes can take up to 48 hours, delaying payouts for some users.
Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act to establish a regulatory framework for prediction markets that supports their operation while addressing manipulation risks, issued a statement on April 8. In it, he said: “It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions.” Moore published an opinion piece advocating for prediction markets on April 14, 2026.
The trading activity by these new accounts resembles patterns observed previously on Polymarket. In January 2026, newly created accounts placed large bets hours before the announced capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, profiting hundreds of thousands of dollars. The article also references similar clusters of accounts profiting from bets on military actions involving Iran, though specific instances of repeated such activity have not been independently verified in public reports.
These incidents have prompted questions from the public and lawmakers about potential use of nonpublic information in prediction markets. Legislation such as H.R. 7004 has been introduced to expand insider trading definitions to cover prediction markets, though it is not confirmed as originating from bipartisan groups. Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have implemented their own policies against insider trading.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both indicated support for broader regulatory definitions of insider trading applicable to their platforms.
“This is why these markets need regulation,” said Todd Phillips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and industry regulations. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”
*(Word count: 742)*
Investigation Log · 68 steps
Starting investigation...
Investigating Newsmax
Investigating Ken Sweet
Investigating Christopher L. Keller
Investigating Associated Press
Searching for ""Polymarket" "ceasefire" Iran Trump April 7 2026"
Verify the main event: bets on US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 2026
Searching for "Trump Truth Social "whole civilization will die tonight" Strait of Hormuz April 2026"
Verify Trump's warning post and timeline
Source: Christopher L. Keller
Christopher L. Keller is a Data & Graphics Reporter for The Associated Press with 14 years of experience in journalism, data analysis, and visualization. He previously worked as managing editor at Albuquerque Business First, graphics journalist at the Los Angeles Times, and Data Editor at KPCC, earning awards for projects on officer-involved shootings and California wildfires. His focus is on building datasets for breaking news context, such as Texas flood warnings and wildfire evacuations.
Source: Ken Sweet
Ken Sweet is a business writer for the Associated Press (AP), verified on AP News, LinkedIn, Amsterdam News, and Rapid City Post. He holds a Columbia University degree (2003-2007) and is a 2024-2025 Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economics and Business Journalism there. His syndicated reporting focuses on financial markets with specific, verifiable data points like trading revenue increases.
Source: Newsmax
Newsmax self-describes on its homepage as providing 'U.S. news you can trust' covering politics, health, and finance. Its mobile app has a 3.1-star rating from 33.4K user reviews and over 1M downloads on Google Play, reflecting mixed reception potentially influenced by its opinion-heavy content. No independent fact-checking scores appear in the provided results.
Source: Associated Press
The Associated Press (AP) is an American not-for-profit news agency founded in 1846 and headquartered in New York City, operating as a cooperative unincorporated association that produces and distributes news reports to its members and major U.S. outlets. It claims to produce 1,260 stories per day, 80,000 videos per year, and 1.27 million photos per year, self-describing as 'the Definitive Source' focused on 'advancing the power of facts.' No third-party credibility ratings appear in the results, though it highlights internal awards and recognition.
Searching for "Polymarket Iran US ceasefire April 7 2026 Dune analytics"
Verify the blockchain data analysis of bets on ceasefire market
Searching for ""Blake Moore" Polymarket statement "insiders with access""
Verify Rep. Moore's statement
Searching for "Trump announces ceasefire Iran Strait of Hormuz April 7 2026"
Verify the announcement and context
Searching for "Polymarket bets Maduro capture January 2026"
Verify past similar incident with Maduro
Searching for ""Trump Always Chickens Out" TACO"
Verify the "TACO" phrase used by critics
Searching for "Pakistan Trump extend deadline Strait of Hormuz April 2026"
Verify Pakistan's role
Comparing coverage of "Polymarket bets on US-Iran ceasefire April 2026"
Coverage comparison completed
Searching for ""Blake Moore" "It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades" OR "insiders with access to information ahead of the public" Polymarket"
Verify exact Rep. Blake Moore statement on Polymarket ceasefire bets
Searching for "Polymarket "newly created accounts" "Iran" OR "military actions" profits "repeatedly""
Verify claim of similar clusters profiting from well-timed bets on Iran military actions repeatedly
Searching for "bipartisan legislation insider trading prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket"
Verify bipartisan bills and platforms' statements on insider trading
Searching for "Polymarket "disputed" "April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract" Hormuz missile attacks"
Verify market dispute status
Investigating Rep. Blake Moore
Source: Rep. Blake Moore
Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) is a sitting U.S. Congressman whose official website (blakemoore.house.gov) and congress.gov profile provide primary-source documentation of his legislative actions and press releases, verifiable as government-hosted. These sources accurately reflect his stated positions but are self-published by his office, lacking third-party fact-checking. No evidence of retractions or fact-check failures appears in results, though political statements inherently prioritize advocacy over neutrality.
unverified_claim
Article quotes Rep. Blake Moore saying: “It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions..."
Presents a congressional statement as fact to bolster insider trading suspicions, but no evidence confirms this exact quote or statement from Moore on this event.
unverified_claim
Claims "Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran."
Implies a pattern of insider trading specifically on Iran events to heighten suspicion around this ceasefire bet, without evidence.
unverified_claim
States Polymarket labeled the April 7 ceasefire contract "disputed" because "Iran was still placing restrictions on ships... and missile attacks... continued."
Uses this to suggest the bets might not even pay out, adding uncertainty to the profits claimed, but unverifiable.
Framing
Describes bets as made "even though... Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals... imminent," then notes "possibility... expecting Trump to back down... critics have derided as “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO."
Frames the timing as highly suspicious by contrasting with Trump's threats and using critics' mocking acronym, implying bets anticipated a Trump retreat.
Missing Context
Rep. Blake Moore introduced the Event Contract Enforcement Act to support prediction markets while protecting from manipulation, publishing an opinion piece on them April 14, 2026.
Moore is quoted criticizing trades as likely insider; omitting his pro-prediction market stance provides asymmetric portrayal of congressional views.
Missing Context
Legislation on prediction market insider trading (e.g., H.R. 7004) exists but searches do not confirm it as introduced by "bipartisan groups"; platforms like Kalshi advertise banning insider trading.
Article claims "Bipartisan groups... introduced legislation" and platforms "see a need"; omission of non-bipartisan nature and platforms' self-regulation undercuts narrative of unregulated crisis.
Searching for "site:foxnews.com OR site:breitbart.com OR site:dailywire.com OR site:nationalreview.com Polymarket Iran ceasefire Trump bets"
Right-leaning coverage of Polymarket bets on Iran ceasefire to contrast with AP/Newsmax
Searching for "site:cnn.com OR site:msnbc.com OR site:nytimes.com OR site:washingtonpost.com Polymarket Iran ceasefire Trump bets insider"
Left-leaning coverage for opposite bias
Searching for ""Event Contract Enforcement Act" Blake Moore prediction markets"
Confirm Moore's actual stance on prediction markets
Source Credibility
Quotes Rep. Blake Moore criticizing Polymarket trades as likely insider trading by officials.
Moore is portrayed as calling for restrictions, implying broad congressional concern, but he actually supports prediction markets via legislation.
Framing
"There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat — a phenomenon his critics have derided as “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO."
Uses critics' mocking acronym to frame Trump negatively, implying bets were based on known Trump pattern rather than inside info, but loads anti-Trump snarl words.
Missing Context
Pakistan publicly appealed for a two-week extension/ceasefire on April 7 before Trump's announcement, providing a public signal for bets.
Article notes "few signals" but Pakistan's public statement was a clear diplomatic signal available to informed bettors, providing non-insider context for "Yes" bets.
Missing Context
Similar suspicious bets occurred on Maduro capture in January 2026, verified as new accounts profiting big before announcement.
Article mentions it as mirroring pattern, but it's verified precedent strengthening the insider concern legitimately.
Writing analysis narrative
Writing verdict summary
Writing neutral rewrite
Investigation complete. Preparing report...
Analysis narrative ready
Neutral rewrite ready
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