Germany's AfD Seeks Landmark State Victory as Saxony-Anhalt Votes

Saxony-Anhalt Holds State Election as AfD Leads Polls

Voting began on Sunday in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt in an election where the Alternative for Germany party is polling first. The party’s 35-year-old lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has led surveys for months. Current figures place the Alternative for Germany above 40 percent, with the Christian Democratic Union at 23 percent. Roughly 1.7 million eligible voters had until 6 p.m. local time to cast ballots, with initial turnout estimates scheduled for release at noon and first results expected shortly after polls close.

An outright majority for any single party is difficult under Germany’s proportional system, which allocates seats according to vote share and includes a 5 percent threshold for parliamentary representation. If the Alternative for Germany secures more than 50 percent of seats, it could form a government without partners. If it falls short, the Christian Democratic Union, currently led in the state by Premier Sven Schulze, would be the party most likely to lead coalition talks.

German domestic intelligence agencies have classified sections of the Alternative for Germany as extremist or placed them under surveillance in multiple states. This classification is cited by other parties as the reason they maintain a policy of refusing governing coalitions with the Alternative for Germany. The policy has been in place at both federal and state levels since the party’s founding.

Siegmund has stated that the Alternative for Germany will not enter coalitions and is targeting at least 45 percent of the vote. At a rally in Magdeburg the day before the election, he said the party’s approach in Saxony-Anhalt “can no longer be stopped.” He has also said mainstream parties have governed Germany for three decades and that cooperation with them is not feasible. The party’s platform includes changes to school curricula and cultural policy, reduced immigration, and restructuring of public broadcasters.

Schulze remains the preferred choice for premier in voter surveys. His party’s current state coalition partners are the Free Democratic Party and the Social Democratic Party. Recent polls show the Free Democratic Party below the 5 percent threshold and the Social Democratic Party below 10 percent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is also projected to miss the threshold. The Christian Democratic Union has ruled out cooperation with the Left party.

If no majority coalition forms, one possible outcome is a minority government led by Schulze that would rely on case-by-case support from other parties, a model previously used in the neighboring state of Thuringia. Coalition negotiations, if required, are expected to last several weeks.

The election is viewed by analysts as an indicator of support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal government, which has tightened migration and security measures. The Alternative for Germany has described the Saxony-Anhalt vote as a step toward contesting the next federal election, scheduled for 2029. State officials will publish full results in the days after polls close.