Iran Conflict Disrupts Fertilizer Shipments Through Strait of Hormuz, Impacting Global Agriculture

By Aniruddha Ghosal and Allan Olingo

*March 30, 2026*

Farmers worldwide are experiencing disruptions from the ongoing conflict involving Iran, where elevated gas prices and reduced fertilizer supplies have resulted from Iran's restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran imposed these limits in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities and territory, according to statements from former President Donald Trump on Truth Social and NBC News, as well as Iranian officials cited by the BBC.

The fertilizer supply issues are compounding challenges for farmers in developing countries, who already face rising temperatures and variable weather. These disruptions could contribute to increased food prices globally.

Farmers in the Northern Hemisphere depend on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region, and the restrictions coincide with the start of planting seasons, according to Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program.

"In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year," Skau said.

Baldev Singh, a 55-year-old rice farmer in Punjab, India, stated that smallholders, who form the majority of the country's farmers, could face difficulties if the government does not subsidize fertilizers during peak demand in June.

"Right now, we are waiting and hoping," Singh said.

Iran has imposed significant restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that typically carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments and approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, primarily urea and ammonia from Gulf producers.

On Friday, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, announced that Tehran had agreed to a U.N. request to permit humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the strait, despite ongoing strikes on its nuclear facilities.

This agreement marks the first reported progress at the shipping route after a month of conflict. While attention from markets and governments has centered on interruptions to oil and natural gas supplies, the fertilizer restrictions are affecting agricultural production and food security worldwide.

Nitrogen and phosphate, two primary fertilizer components, face immediate supply pressures from the restrictions.

Nitrogen supplies, including urea—the most traded fertilizer, which promotes plant growth and yield increases—are particularly affected due to shipping delays and higher prices for liquefied natural gas, a key production input.

The conflict has impacted about 30% of global urea trade, according to Chris Lawson of CRU Group, a London-based commodities consultancy.

Some countries are reporting acute shortages, per Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas. Ethiopia, for instance, sources over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf via Djibouti, a route that was already constrained before the war started in February.

"The planting season is now," Patel said. "The fertilizer isn't there."

Phosphate supplies, used for root development, are also strained. Saudi Arabia accounts for about one-fifth of global phosphate fertilizer exports, and the Gulf region supplies more than 40% of the world's sulfur—a critical ingredient and oil and gas refining byproduct—Lawson noted.

Even after the conflict concludes, Gulf producers would require security assurances before resuming full shipments through the strait, and insurance premiums would likely increase, according to Owen Gooch, an analyst with Argus Consulting Services in London.

In India, the government has prioritized domestic urea supplies, providing fertilizer manufacturers with about 70% of their natural gas requirements. Some plants are operating below capacity, resulting in reduced output.

"The food system is fragile, and it depends on stable fertilizer supply chains to ensure farmers can produce the food the world relies on," said Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, one of the largest global fertilizer producers.

Fertilizers are typically applied before or during planting; delays can cause crops to miss critical early growth phases, leading to lower yields even if supplies arrive later.

Effects are evident in the United States and Europe, where primary planting seasons are in progress, with impacts expected in Asia's initial planting periods in the coming months.

"Our crops out in the field need nitrogen now—the sooner the better—so they can get off to a good start, helping them establish themselves and build up reserves for the harvest later this summer," said Dirk Peters, an agricultural engineer operating a farm near Berlin.

Current fertilizer prices are lower than the peaks following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when grain prices were higher and offset some costs for farmers, according to Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute.

With grain prices lower today, profit margins are narrower, potentially prompting farmers to shift to less fertilizer-dependent crops—such as soybeans in the U.S.—or reduce applications, which could lower yields and raise consumer prices.

Other major producers are unlikely to fully offset the shortfall. China, the top producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, is focusing on domestic needs, with urea exports not expected until May, Lawson said. Russian plants, another key source, are operating near capacity.

Disruptions are affecting Africa, where many farmers depend on imports from the Middle East and Russia.

In East Africa, early heavy rains have given farmers roughly one week of dry conditions to prepare fields and apply fertilizer, according to Stephen Muchiri, a Kenyan maize farmer and CEO of the Eastern African Farmers Federation, representing 25 million smallholders.

Shortages and price increases have led farmers to use less fertilizer, reducing yields. Even brief delays can cut maize yields by about 4% per season, Patel said, referencing research from Zambia.

Governments can respond through subsidies, domestic production incentives, and export controls.

India subsidizes fertilizers to support farmers financially, though this limits funds for long-term investments. The country has allocated $12.7 billion this year for urea subsidies alone, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S.-based group.

Efforts to boost domestic urea production have increased India's reliance on imported natural gas, and overuse of urea has degraded local soils, according to Purva Jain of IEEFA, who advocates for organic alternatives.

Reducing dependence on imports could shield farmers and consumers from energy price volatility and climate variability, said Oliver Oliveros, executive coordinator of the Agroecology Coalition.

"This could be a turning point," Oliveros said.

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