Trump Weighs Kharg Island Options as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Over Strait of Hormuz

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Andrew Perez

WASHINGTON — On July 10, 2026, President Donald Trump announced a five-day postponement of potential strikes on Iran's power plants, after initially stating that Iran had until Monday evening to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face such action. The Strait, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, was closed by Iran from March 1 to March 12, 2026, following the US-Israel operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. During that period, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked and sank more than 16 commercial ships, resulting in crew deaths, and deployed naval mines, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). The US subsequently destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers.

The developments follow US airstrikes on March 13, 2026, which targeted over 90 military sites on Kharg Island, including mines, missile launchers, and defenses. CENTCOM reported no US casualties, no damage to oil infrastructure, and no Iranian military fatalities, while Iranian state media confirmed the strikes hit military targets without broader impact. Trump described the operation as a "historic success."

Senior Trump administration officials have received US casualty estimates for potential ground invasion scenarios on Kharg Island, prepared by military and intelligence analysts, according to two sources familiar with the briefings and a third person briefed on them.

In several scenarios involving an invasion and extended occupation of the island — a key hub for Iran's oil exports in the Persian Gulf — casualties could number in the dozens during an initial phase, with higher figures if the operation prolonged, one source said. Some analyses have been presented directly to Trump in recent weeks, the sources added.

Trump has referenced Kharg Island since at least 1988, when during his "Art of the Deal" book tour, he said the US should "go in and take" the island to address oil issues.

Former US intelligence analyst Harrison Mann, who resigned from the Defense Intelligence Agency in protest of US policy on Gaza, has argued against a Kharg operation in writings for Zeteo and the Quincy Institute's Responsible Statecraft blog. He described it as offering limited leverage, noting that Iran might prioritize inflicting US casualties or capturing troops over oil revenue.

Joe Kent, Trump's former counterterrorism director at the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned in opposition to the administration's Iran policy, told the Washington Post that a ground invasion would provide Iran with hostages on an island vulnerable to drone and missile attacks.

On the other side, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has advocated for ground operations on Kharg, stating in recent interviews that seizing the island could force Iran to end its disruptions and lower US gas prices, which have risen amid the Strait closure. Polling from Trump's base shows support for stronger action against Iran, even as gas prices climb.

Multiple sources in and around the US government have shared such assessments with journalists, including Zeteo, indicating concerns over high casualties and political risks in a ground operation.

The briefings come amid broader tensions. In 2022, Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that Russian forces committed war crimes in Ukraine. Trump officials have drawn parallels to Iran's actions, including ship attacks that killed civilians.

Separately, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has increased presence at US airports as part of domestic security measures tied to the Iran conflict.

Kharg Island, off Iran's coast, handles most of the country's oil exports. Photo by Orbital Horizon/Gallo Images via Getty Images.

Analysts note that prior US airstrikes have degraded Iran's defenses on the island without ground forces, potentially reducing the need for invasion. However, Trump has not ruled out further options as Iran maintains its threats to regional shipping.

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