The US war on Iran is spinning out of control | Mohamad Bazzi

US-Iran Conflict Expands to Multiple Countries, Affecting Regional Shipping and Economies

The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded across the Middle East over the past week, with reported attacks and counterattacks occurring in at least five other countries. US military operations against Iran, which began in late February 2026, have been followed by Iranian retaliation against US bases and actions affecting energy routes. Negotiations brokered by Pakistan and Qatar have shown limited progress so far.

After several days of reduced activity, the Pentagon conducted strikes on Iranian targets on multiple nights, with Iranian forces responding against US military positions in the region. Separate incidents were reported in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, and Egypt.

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia stated it had conducted airstrikes inside Iraq alongside US forces, targeting the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella of Shia militias formed in 2014 with Iranian support to combat Islamic State. Saudi officials attributed prior drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities on 27 July to these groups and said the strikes followed warnings to the Iraqi government. Reports indicated at least 20 fighters were killed. US statements claimed coordination with Iraqi authorities, but Iraqi officials denied advance knowledge of the operation.

The strikes occurred against the background of Iraq’s position between the two sides. After the 2003 US invasion removed Saddam Hussein, a Shia-led government took power in Iraq, allowing increased Iranian influence through militia networks. Qassem Suleimani, who directed foreign operations for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy leader of the Popular Mobilization Forces, died in the same strike.

Saudi Arabia has also prepared operations against Houthi forces in Yemen, another Iranian-aligned group. After the February 2026 US operations began, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic. Some Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, redirected oil shipments through the Red Sea. Houthi forces, which control parts of Yemen, have previously targeted vessels near the Bab el-Mandab strait, raising insurance costs and extending shipping routes around Africa.

On 20 July, Houthi authorities announced a blockade on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea, citing prior Saudi restrictions on Houthi-held areas. Subsequent attacks on ships prompted Saudi Arabia to reroute roughly half its oil exports around the Cape of Good Hope. On 25 July, Houthi statements claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities at Yanbu. Saudi forces responded with airstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded a nearly 5 percent GDP decline in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, coinciding with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure. Saudi officials have attributed Houthi actions to Iranian direction and announced plans for a maritime coalition involving Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and Sudan. This effort would operate alongside the existing European Union naval mission Operation Aspides.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had previously avoided direct clashes with Iran. A 2015 Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, supported by US arms and logistics, aimed to restore the recognized government after Houthi forces took Sana’a. United Nations estimates placed total deaths from the war at 377,000 by the end of 2021, with roughly 60 percent attributed to indirect causes such as famine and disease. A UN-mediated ceasefire took effect in 2022, but talks on a final settlement stalled after Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping began in 2023.

The current Saudi-Houthi ceasefire remains under strain amid the wider conflict.