Iran Conflict Persists Weeks After U.S.-Israel Strikes as Both Sides Face Casualties and Economic Strain

By The Intercept Staff

*March 27, 2026*


Weeks after the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict shows no signs of a rapid resolution. Initial expectations in Washington of an "unconditional surrender" or regime change have not materialized. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued regular updates on military operations, while reactions vary across affected populations.

The strikes followed months of escalating tensions, including Iran's accumulation of approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles—estimates indicate one-third to one-half were destroyed in the initial attacks—and a stockpile of around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Iran had also provided arms to proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which conducted missile attacks on Israel and U.S. allies in the region prior to February 28, per the Defense Intelligence Agency's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment.

Iranian forces responded with missile strikes on U.S., Israeli, and Gulf targets, resulting in the deaths of U.S. service members, Israeli civilians, and migrant workers in Persian Gulf states. Civilian areas in Iran have sustained damage from ongoing aerial assaults, leading to reported casualties and infrastructure destruction. Neither side has released comprehensive casualty figures, but the conflict has imposed significant human costs on multiple populations.

Economic disruptions have compounded the challenges. Iranian missile strikes have targeted regional energy infrastructure, halting much of the oil and gas production and transit in the Persian Gulf. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20 percent of global oil trade, contributing to market volatility. In the U.S., gasoline prices have risen 35 percent to an average of $3.96 per gallon as of March 25, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected claims of stalled progress, stating on March 27 that negotiations are "ongoing and going well," despite reports of Iran's outright rejection of a U.S. ceasefire proposal. The U.S. is deploying additional troops to the Persian Gulf region, with reports suggesting potential operations against Iranian-held islands such as Kharg Island, which hosts an oil terminal, or nearby sites to reopen the Strait.

U.S. intelligence, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2026 report, estimates the strikes have set back Iran's nuclear program by approximately two years, though Trump administration officials have claimed more substantial degradation of capabilities. These developments have not prompted an Iranian capitulation, and analysts note that limited territorial gains, such as seizing an island outpost, may alter tactical dynamics without overthrowing the government. Diplomatic engagement remains a likely path to de-escalation.

Potential Negotiating Partners

Trump administration strategies appear to prioritize engagement with elements within Iran's leadership rather than full regime change. Some observers, including supporters of former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, had anticipated broader upheaval, but U.S. actions draw parallels to interventions in Venezuela, where pressure led to leadership adjustments without total overthrow.

Early strikes, including an Israeli operation targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—whose death was confirmed shortly after—and his family, eliminated several figures U.S. officials had viewed as potential negotiation partners, according to Trump statements. Subsequent Israeli actions included the assassination of Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a former parliament speaker who backed the 2015 nuclear deal. Larijani was seen as a pragmatic conservative capable of facilitating talks.

Current discussions in Washington center on Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, as a possible interlocutor. Trump alluded to communications with such a figure without naming Qalibaf, citing concerns over potential Israeli targeting. It remains unclear whether Qalibaf holds sufficient authority for binding agreements, or if Iran's leadership prefers prolonged resistance to deter future attacks.

Leadership transitions have elevated more hardline figures. Larijani's role was filled by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, an arch-conservative ex-IRGC commander. The IRGC position vacated by Mohammad Pakpour, killed in the February 28 strike on Khamenei's compound, went to Ahmad Vahidi, viewed by analysts as more hardline than his predecessors. Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the supreme leader role amid these shifts, though the war's trajectory remains fluid.

U.S. public opinion reflects divisions over the conflict. A Fox News poll from March 25 showed 58 to 64 percent disapproval of Trump's handling, with gasoline price spikes cited as a key factor. Republican base support holds firm, but figures like John Bolton, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham have questioned the absence of a clear endgame.

Strategic Dilemmas and Risks

Iranian leaders project confidence, leveraging the Strait of Hormuz closure as a pressure tool. U.S. officials, including Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have emphasized that reopening the waterway depends on Iranian actions. Forcing passage without broader regime collapse poses logistical challenges, given Iran's missile arsenal and defensive preparations.

Trump faces constrained options: pursue a ceasefire perceived by critics as a concession, undermining U.S. credibility, or escalate with ground operations risking further American casualties and uncertain gains. A large-scale invasion akin to Iraq, involving tens of thousands of troops, could impose a compliant leadership but appears unlikely given Trump's past aversion to prolonged engagements.

For Iran's population, the war has caused civilian deaths, damage to residential areas, energy facilities, and cultural sites. Post-conflict, security forces may intensify crackdowns on dissent, viewing protesters as foreign agents, according to human rights reports. The government could emerge more militarized and decentralized following Khamenei's death, with IRGC influence expanded.

Both U.S. and Israeli strategies have drawn scrutiny. Israel's strikes on infrastructure and potential negotiators may aim to prevent a quick settlement, prioritizing long-term threats over immediate de-escalation. Netanyahu's approach aligns with goals of weakening Iran's projection capabilities, even if a surviving government retains regional influence.

Trump's understanding of Iranian dynamics has been debated, with some right-leaning commentators highlighting successes like missile destruction and nuclear delays as evidence of strategic gains. Others, including pro-intervention Iranian exiles, argue the strikes have degraded proxy networks and military cohesion.

Domestic pressures in the U.S., including polling declines and economic fallout, may incentivize talks. Gulf monarchies face migrant worker losses and energy disruptions, while Israeli civilians endure retaliatory strikes. Iranian diaspora views split, with some celebrating blows to leadership and others decrying civilian tolls.

As the conflict enters its second month, the Iranian government has withstood initial assaults without collapsing, but sustained costs on all sides—military, economic, and human—underscore the high stakes. Resolution may hinge on backchannel diplomacy with figures like Qalibaf, balanced against escalation risks and Israeli objectives. Without a deal, prolonged fighting could exacerbate global energy crises and regional instability.

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