Five things to watch in Tuesday’s elections in Alaska, Florida and California

Primaries in Alaska, Florida and California Set Stage for November Midterms

Voters in Alaska, Florida and California will cast ballots on Tuesday in primaries that will shape the field for the November midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. Alaska’s Senate primary stands out because of its nonpartisan format, which places the Republican incumbent and the Democratic challenger on the same ballot. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to take the majority in the 100-member Senate, and analysts have identified Alaska as one of the more competitive contests.

Florida’s primaries occur under a congressional map enacted earlier this year that election analysts project could produce a net gain of up to four seats for Republicans. The map was drawn by the state legislature and signed into law after the 2020 census. Here are five races and developments to watch.

Alaska Senate Primary Tests Ranked-Choice System

Incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan is seeking renomination in a primary that also includes Democrat Mary Peltola and a Republican challenger named Dan J. Sullivan. Peltola, who won the state’s at-large House seat in 2022, is expected to advance to the general election under the state’s ranked-choice voting rules. Those rules allow voters to rank candidates in order of preference, a process that can shift support in later rounds. Sullivan has held the seat since defeating Democrat Mark Begich in 2014. The presence of two candidates with nearly identical names on the ballot has raised questions about potential voter confusion.

Florida 25th District Primary Pits Moderate Against Progressive

In Florida’s 25th Congressional District, which stretches along the coast north of Miami, Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz faces a primary challenge from Oliver Larkin, an activist endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Larkin previously worked on Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign and supports a federal minimum wage of $25 per hour along with single-payer health care. Moskowitz, who is serving his first term in this district after redistricting, participates in the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. The winner will face the Republican nominee in November in a district that leans Republican on recent voting patterns.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz Seeks Nomination in New District

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, first elected in 2004, is running in the Democratic primary for the 20th Congressional District after her previous district was altered by the new map. The 20th District has a majority Black population and has been represented by Black members of Congress for decades. Her primary opponents include rapper Luther Campbell, former Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who faces criminal charges related to alleged misuse of disaster relief funds, progressive activist Elijah Manley, and former local official Dale Holness. The primary winner will be heavily favored in the general election.

California Special Election Centers on Democratic Primary

A special election to fill a vacant House seat in California has drawn attention because of competing Democratic candidates and outside spending. State Senator Aisha Wahab, who is Afghan American and Muslim, is running against Melissa Hernandez, who leads a San Francisco-area transit agency. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent funds in support of Hernandez. The group has also backed Representative Moskowitz in the Florida primary. The winner of Tuesday’s primary will advance to the November special election.

Florida Governor Primary Features Trump-Endorsed Candidate

In the Republican primary for governor, Representative Byron Donalds is running with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Donalds is seeking to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis. Recent public polls show Donalds leading his primary opponents. On the Democratic side, former Representative David Jolly is seeking the nomination; if successful, he would face the Republican nominee in November. Jolly previously served as a Republican before switching parties.

The outcomes in these states will help determine candidate matchups and resource allocation for the remainder of the midterm cycle. Turnout and the performance of ranked-choice voting in Alaska are among the procedural elements that will be examined after the results are certified.