Trump has locked in high gas prices for summer — and maybe longer

Oil Prices Stay Elevated Amid US-Israel-Iran Conflict and Strait of Hormuz Closure

Even with an end to hostilities, supply adjustments are expected to require several months.

Published June 10, 2026 6:30AM (EDT)

Fuel prices are displayed at a gas station in Brooklyn on June 01, 2026. Oil prices around the globe continue to rise as talks drag on between the United States and Iran over the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a surge in the price of oil and a strain on millions of people's finances. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

When the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, resulting in a decrease in oil and natural gas production in the region, analysts noted that resolution of the conflict could allow a return toward earlier production levels. More than 100 days later, with the conflict ongoing, energy prices have remained above prewar levels.

In the initial period after the attacks, statements indicated expectations of resolution within four to five weeks. Energy industry analysts observed that such a timeline could have permitted faster alignment with prior oil and natural gas price levels.

The conflict has now extended into its third month. The price of oil has stayed elevated above prewar levels, linked to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite releases from strategic petroleum reserves in multiple countries. Damage to oil and natural gas infrastructure in the region has also been reported, indicating that production recovery would require time even after any immediate cessation of fighting.

David Victor, director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative at the University of California, San Diego, stated in an analysis that disruptions would likely extend for at least three to six months even if fighting stopped and the Strait of Hormuz reopened immediately. Victor noted that price effects would not remain at peak wartime levels throughout that interval, because changes in supply require time to move through global supply chains.

“When the war began, there was a huge amount of oil at sea already,” Victor said. “The Saudis and others knew that the crisis was on its way, so they started pumping more and putting more out into the market, and so it’s taken a while to work all that off.”

Victor also described additional effects on the U.S. and global economies beyond direct oil price levels. Inflation has increased with higher fuel costs, and indicators point to a broader economic slowdown. Sectors including travel and tourism have faced higher jet fuel expenses, while electronics manufacturing has encountered increased costs for fuel and related products such as helium.

Victor added that a prolonged period of elevated prices could lead to reduced demand, similar to patterns observed during the 1970s oil shocks, when prices rose sharply and prompted shifts toward substitutes and greater efficiency in oil use.

Max Pyziur, director of research programs at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, stated that the period for rapid energy-market recovery has passed. In March, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves of member countries. Pyziur projected that these releases would conclude by the end of summer. Prices are expected to remain higher than prewar levels during this period but not at record extremes.

“Once we get past these strategic oil reserves, we might be seeing $150 per barrel of oil,” Pyziur said. “That’s when things become more acute.”

Pyziur indicated that the United States, with substantial domestic production, would likely avoid outright shortages, though countries with lower domestic output could face greater supply constraints. Higher prices for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products are anticipated. After the reserve releases end, Pyziur projected a further adjustment period of six to eight months during which shortages of additional commodities transiting the Strait of Hormuz could intensify. Existing shortages in natural gas, fertilizer, and helium have already been noted.

The sequence of events began with military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran in late February 2026. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes. Production declines followed in affected areas. Releases from strategic reserves have offset some of the immediate shortfall, yet infrastructure damage and the closure have sustained upward pressure on prices. Market data show the futures price of Brent crude at $72.48 per barrel on February 27, 2026, the last trading day before the attacks, followed by fluctuations after subsequent military actions.

Global supply chains continue to absorb the initial surge in available oil that occurred ahead of the conflict. Additional releases from reserves are scheduled to continue through the summer months. Industry observers have noted that full restoration of prewar production volumes would depend on both the reopening of shipping routes and repairs to damaged facilities. Economic indicators, including inflation measures and sector-specific output data, reflect the ongoing effects of higher energy costs across multiple regions.