Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Supercharges Violence in the Americas

Analysis Links Trump Administration Actions in Americas to Shifts in Organized Crime and Security Force Operations

The Trump administration’s diplomatic and military actions across the Western Hemisphere, described by President Donald Trump and others as the Donroe Doctrine, have coincided with reported increases in violence, changes in cartel structures, and expanded use of force by regional security forces, according to an analysis by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project shared with The Intercept.

ACLED senior Latin America analysts Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda stated that U.S. pressure on organized crime has contributed to the adoption of militarized security approaches in multiple countries. They wrote that fragmentation within criminal groups and heightened competition could lead to further violence during the remainder of Trump’s term, potentially offsetting short-term reductions achieved through enforcement measures.

The administration has conducted strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean, carried out military operations in Venezuela that resulted in the detention of its president, supported CIA activities in Mexico, participated in joint counter-cartel operations in Ecuador referred to as “Operation Total Extermination,” and expanded military and intelligence activities elsewhere in Latin America. These steps represent an intensification of engagement compared with prior U.S. policy in the region.

Pellegrini and Breda observed that in countries where criminal organizations maintain diversified revenue streams, militarized strategies have sometimes produced group fragmentation. In Ecuador, the number of identified gangs rose from 24 in 2023 to 37 by the end of 2025. Following the extradition of Los Choneros leader José Adolfo Macías to the United States, the rival Los Lobos group expanded into former strongholds, contributing to additional clashes, the analysts reported.

The same analysis noted increased use of weaponized drones by armed groups in Mexico and Colombia. Drone attacks in Mexico rose 567 percent between 2023 and 2025, while Colombia recorded an increase from one incident in 2023 to at least 107 in 2025. These tactics allow groups to strike from a distance while limiting direct exposure of personnel.

U.S. strikes on boats suspected of carrying drugs have totaled 59 since September 2025, resulting in 195 deaths, according to administration figures. The most recent reported strike occurred on May 8 in the Pacific Ocean and killed three individuals.

Regional security forces have also employed aerial and drone strikes. In Haiti, a special task force used drones during operations against gangs. ACLED data indicated that clashes between security forces and armed groups produced nearly 6,900 fatalities in 2025, the highest annual total recorded since 2018.

The administration has applied diplomatic pressure on Panama and issued statements regarding Canada, Colombia, Greenland, and Cuba. Last week, federal prosecutors in Florida unsealed an indictment charging former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five other individuals in connection with the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft by Cuban forces. Administration officials have described Cuba as presenting a military concern. Democratic members of Congress, including Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, have stated that such characterizations lack foundation and could serve as justification for further military action.

Himes said the Cuban government does not constitute a national security threat comparable to claims made by the administration. The administration has maintained that its policies target criminal networks and restore deterrence in areas affected by trafficking and violence.

Pellegrini and Breda concluded that the combination of enforcement pressure and local security responses has altered the operational environment for both state and non-state actors, with effects that may extend beyond the immediate term.