New York, California and other high-taxed states losing billions of dollars while Florida and others prosper from mass migration: IRS
Unsupported Causal Framing
How They Deceive You
Propaganda
Heavily misleading by framing neutral IRS address-change data as direct evidence of tax-driven migration from high-tax blue states to low-tax red states, ignoring untracked reasons and other factors.
Main Device
Unsupported Causal Framing
Employs loaded phrases like 'bleed billions' and 'vicious cycle' to causally link income shifts solely to taxes, without IRS data supporting reasons for moves.
Archetype
Blue-state failure promoter
Pushes a partisan narrative celebrating Republican-led low-tax states' gains while blaming Democratic high-tax states' losses on policy failures.
This article deceives by implying IRS data proves tax burdens drive migration from blue to red states, omitting that it tracks only address changes, not reasons.
Writer's Worldview
“Tax-Haven Cheerleader”
Blue-state failure promoter
4 findings · 3 omissions · 5 sources compared
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Narrative Analysis
Verdict: This New York Post article accurately reports IRS data on net adjusted gross income (AGI) shifts from 2022-2023—such as Florida's +$20.6 billion gain and California's -$11.9 billion loss—but frames the migration as primarily tax-driven without evidence from the data, which tracks only address changes, not reasons.
Key Strengths
- Precise data handling: The piece correctly cites IRS figures, including top losers (CA -$11.9B, NY -$9.9B, IL -$6B) and gainers like FL (+$20.6B), matching analyses from the Wall Street Journal and IRS SOI migration data.
- Clear visuals and quotes: Uses maps and a Realtor.com economist's comment on "affordability" to illustrate trends post-pandemic.
Techniques and Framing Choices
The article employs causal language unsupported by its primary source:
"states with the highest taxes like New York and California continued to bleed billions of dollars"
- Loaded phrasing: Terms like "bleed billions," "vicious cycle," and "high-taxed states losing... while Florida... prosper" imply taxes as the dominant driver, aligning with a critique of Democratic-led states.
- Partisan pattern emphasis: Lists losers as "all Democratic-led states with the highest taxes" (NY, CA, IL, MA, NJ, MD, MN) versus gainers like FL and TX, without noting cross-party flows.
- Evidence: IRS data confirms AGI net changes but states explicitly: "These statistics reflect changes of address... no information on reasons for migration" (IRS SOI page).
Cherry-picking destinations: Focuses on FL/TX/AZ/NV gains from CA/NY, but downplays NY's top outflows to NJ, PA, and CT—states with comparable or higher income taxes in some brackets.
- Why notable: IRS analyses (e.g., Wirepoints, SmartAsset) show NJ as NY's #1 destination (~30k-40k net annually), complicating a strict high-tax-to-low-tax narrative.
Verifiable Omissions
These gaps involve concrete facts that alter the reader's grasp of the data:
- No migration reasons in IRS data: The source tracks only filer address changes between tax years, not motivations like taxes, jobs, or family.
- Impact: Undercuts claims of "due to affordability and tax burdens."
- NY's primary destinations include higher-tax neighbors: Top spots: NJ (high income tax), PA, CT—not solely low-tax FL (2nd/3rd).
- Source: IRS 2022 data via Wirepoints/SmartAsset.
- Post-COVID factors documented elsewhere: Remote work flexibility and climate drew movers to FL/TX, per Census/IRS cross-analyses.
- Source: Fortune article on millennial wealth migration.
Source and Author Context
- New York Post: Right-leaning tabloid (AllSides rating: Right), known for sensational headlines and critiques of progressive policies in NY/CA.
- Author Rich Calder: NY Post real estate beat reporter; prior work highlights NYC policy failures (e.g., progressive housing regs), fitting this tax-migration angle.
- No factual errors in raw data, but pattern favors stories on blue-state outflows.
Other Outlets' Coverage
- Right-leaning sites like ClarkCountyToday.com echo the tax/policy framing but add regulations and regional gains (ID/MT).
- Neutral takes, like Realtor.com, stick to descriptive AGI maps without causation or partisanship.
- Progressive-leaning, like MassOpportunity.org (MA-focused), warn of tax-base erosion but cite CPA surveys (90% say taxes influence moves) for balance.
Bottom Line: Strong on verifiable IRS numbers, making it a useful data snapshot, but the heavy causal spin on taxes—absent from the source—tips it toward advocacy over neutral reporting. Readers get facts but a filtered lens; cross-check IRS raw data for unspun trends.
Further Reading
- Realtor.com: Net Income IRS Migration Data 2023 – Descriptive AGI map, no causation.
- The Unseen and The Unsaid: The Great American Tax Migration – Focuses on high-earner impacts and national scale.
- MassOpportunity.org: These Five States Have Lost the Most Taxpayer Income – MA-centric tax-base warnings with surveys.
- ClarkCountyToday.com: The Wealth Migration is Real – Policy-driven narrative including regulations.
Investigation Log · 50 steps
Starting investigation...
Investigating New York Post
Investigating Rich Calder
Investigating New York Post
Source: New York Post
The New York Post operates as a tabloid-style outlet focusing on breaking news, celebrity scandals, sports, and opinion, with sensational headlines like those involving Tiger Woods' arrest. It promotes 'common sense' editorials criticizing politicians for issues like antisemitism and countering media narratives. No fact-checking ratings or error track records are available in the provided data.
Source: Rich Calder
Rich Calder is a Brooklyn-based journalist currently authoring articles for the New York Post on NYC politics, crime, and policy. He has prior experience at the Herald-News, where colleagues praised his intensity, tenacity, wide knowledge, hard work, and skill in cultivating sources. Calder maintains a professional network with 775 LinkedIn followers and 500+ connections.
Source: New York Post
The New York Post presents itself as a source for breaking news, politics, opinion, and tabloid-style stories, with sensational headlines like those on Tiger Woods and NYC kingpin arrests. Its YouTube channel has 2.43M subscribers covering news, sports, business, entertainment, and opinion. No fact-checking ratings, error rates, or specific track records on tax policy or migration reporting appear in the provided results.
Searching for "IRS migration data 2022 New York California Florida income loss"
Verify the core claim: high-tax states like NY and CA losing billions in income to FL etc. per IRS data. Find the actual numbers and context.
Searching for ""IRS" "New York" "California" "Florida" migration billions"
Find exact IRS data referenced in the article, specific dollar amounts for NY, CA losses to FL.
Searching for "IRS SOI Tax Stats Migration Data latest year"
Locate official IRS migration data source for verification.
Searching for "IRS SOI migration data 2022 New York net AGI loss Florida gain"
Get specific IRS numbers for NY to FL migration, net losses/gains in AGI for 2022 tax year.
Searching for "IRS migration data California Florida New York billions 2022 OR 2023"
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Searching for ""reasons for migration from New York California to Florida" -taxes"
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Comparing coverage of "IRS migration data 2022 high-tax states losses to Florida New York California"
Searching for "site:nytimes.com OR site:washingtonpost.com OR site:cnn.com IRS migration data New York California Florida"
See how left-leaning outlets covered the IRS migration data for balance.
Searching for "New York Post "New York, California and other high-taxed states losing billions" critique OR fact check"
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Coverage comparison completed
Framing
Frames interstate migration solely as a consequence of high taxes in Democratic-led states (NY, CA) versus low taxes in Republican-led states (FL, TX), using loaded phrases like "bleed billions," "vicious cycle," "high-taxed states losing billions while... others prosper," and attributing it directly to "affordability and tax burdens."
Creates impression that taxes are the primary driver of migration, supporting anti-tax conservative narrative without evidence that taxes outweigh other factors, misleading readers on causation.
Missing Context
IRS migration data tracks only address changes on tax returns and does not collect or report reasons for individuals' moves between states.
Undermines article's causal claim that migration is driven by "tax burdens" since the data source provides no support for that interpretation.
Missing Context
Post-COVID remote work enabled by pandemic-era flexibility is a cited factor in migration from NY/CA to FL, alongside climate (warm weather) and overall cost of living.
Presents a more complete picture of migration drivers; taxes are one factor but not the only or necessarily dominant one, per multiple analyses.
Source Credibility
New York Post, a right-leaning tabloid, and author Rich Calder frequently criticize progressive/Democratic policies in NY, framing stories to highlight failures of high-tax, blue-state governance.
Incentivizes sensational, one-sided coverage favoring conservative narratives like tax flight, reducing likelihood of balanced counterpoints.
Cherry-Picking
Highlights AGI losses from high-tax blue states and gains in red states, quotes experts/realtors linking to taxes, but ignores that gains/losses occur across political lines and other destinations (e.g., NJ, PA for NY movers).
Reinforces partisan "blue states failing, red prospering" without noting migration patterns don't perfectly align with politics (e.g., TX gains middle-class, not just high-earners).
Searching for "AllSides media bias rating "New York Post""
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Searching for "does IRS migration data include reasons for moving"
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Searching for "IRS migration data New York top destinations besides Florida"
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Searching for "AllSides bias rating New York Post"
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Factual Error
Implies IRS data directly shows tax-driven migration by titling/headlining "losing billions... while Florida and others prosper from mass migration: IRS" and stating "due to affordability and tax burdens."
Misleads by presenting unsupported causation as data-supported; IRS tracks only moves, not reasons.
Missing Context
New York's top migration destinations include New Jersey (net outflow ~30k-40k annually), Pennsylvania, and Connecticut, which have higher or comparable tax rates to some periods, not just low-tax FL/TX.
Shows migration not exclusively to low-tax/red states, complicating "high-tax blue losing to low-tax red" narrative.
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