Logjam of U.S. immigration applications puts millions at greater risk of deportation

Source: David Bier

David J. Bier is the Director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, with over a decade of experience in immigration policy and research, including a role in Congress from 2013-2015 on bipartisan reform. He has submitted written testimony to Congress (e.g., March 5, 2025) and appeared in 18 C-SPAN videos as an immigration expert. His expertise focuses on border security, interior enforcement, and legal immigration within a libertarian think tank advocating policy reform.

Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services USCIS

USCIS is an official U.S. government agency under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), responsible for administering naturalization and immigration systems. As a .gov site with security indicators like HTTPS and padlock icons, it serves as a primary source for immigration processing data. Its operational statistics, such as application volumes, are directly generated by the agency handling filings.

Source: NPR

NPR is an American nonprofit public radio network founded in 1970, with its first broadcast on April 20, 1971, syndicating content to over 1,000 public radio stations. It produces news, analysis, music, and podcasts, self-describing as 'nonprofit journalism with a mission.' Wikipedia documents multiple controversies, including allegations of political bias, sexual harassment, and incidents like the 2010 firing of Juan Williams and the 2011 resignation of Ronald Schiller.

Source: Heritage Foundation

The Heritage Foundation is a Washington, D.C.-based think tank founded in 1973 that produces policy research, reports, and advocacy materials, including through its news outlet The Daily Signal. It has influenced conservative policymaking, notably providing policy blueprints adopted during the Reagan administration. As a nonprofit with $101 million in revenue and $108 million in expenses in 2023, its outputs prioritize advocacy over neutral journalism, raising questions about donor-funded incentives.

Source: Center for Immigration Studies

The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) self-describes as an independent, non-partisan, non-profit research organization founded in 1985 to provide information on immigration consequences. However, scholars, the National Academies of Sciences 2016 report, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and others have deemed multiple CIS reports false, misleading, or methodologically flawed, including studies from 2003, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2020. Critics question CIS's incentives, as it was founded to produce analyses favoring far lower immigration numbers.

Framing

Uses alarmist language in title ("logjam... puts millions at greater risk of deportation") and throughout ("stuck in legal limbo", "ballooning number", "throttle everything") to imply intentional harm by Trump admin, presenting backlog growth as a deliberate strategy to increase deportations rather than administrative reality.

Creates impression of malice and crisis, priming readers to view policy as punitive rather than security-focused or inherited challenge.

Omission

Source asymmetry in quotes: heavily features pro-immigration voices (Bier/Cato, attorneys Cortes Romero/Castro, ex-Biden USCIS Escobar Carrillo, National Partnership for New Americans) vs fewer restrictionist (CIS, Heritage ex-staffer, USCIS spokesman).

Implies broader consensus against admin than exists, as pro-legal-immig critics dominate narrative.

Missing Context

USCIS net backlog grew from stable ~2.4 million cases FY2017-FY2019 (Trump first term) to over 5 million by FY2022 (early Biden admin), before reductions in FY2023.

Provides context that massive backlogs predate Trump2 and expanded significantly under prior admin, countering narrative of unique Trump2 "jump" as primary cause.

Missing Context

USCIS completed a record 10 million immigration cases in FY2023 (Oct 2022-Sep 2023, Biden admin), reducing net backlog for first time in over a decade.

Shows prior admin efforts to address backlog, balancing article's focus on Trump-era growth without noting improvements or scale under Biden.

Source Credibility

Relies on NPR's "analysis" and quotes David Bier (Cato Institute, libertarian pro-legal-immigration) as key critic without noting his advocacy bias.

Launders advocacy as neutral expertise, as Cato favors expanded legal pathways opposing restriction.

Missing Context

Highlights backlog jump of 2M in first year Trump2 (> all Trump1) but notes steady decade growth without quantifying Biden-era contributions.

Selective emphasis creates recency bias, implying Trump2 uniquely responsible despite multi-admin trend.

Missing Context

USCIS net backlog remained stable at approximately 2.4 million cases from FY2017 to FY2019 during Trump's first term, before more than doubling to 5 million by FY2022 under Biden.

This shows the backlog was not a major issue during Trump1 and grew significantly under the prior administration, countering the article's implication of a unique Trump2 'jump' as part of a restrictive strategy.

Missing Context

Emphasizes 2 million backlog jump in first year of Trump2 as exceeding all of Trump1, but omits that net backlog was stable ~2.4M during Trump1 FY17-19 before exploding under Biden.

Misleads on relative responsibility, creating recency illusion that Trump2 uniquely worsened it despite decade-long upward trend driven by prior years.

Source Credibility

Quotes CIS (anti-immigration) and Heritage (conservative restrictionist) experts positively on need for scrutiny, but stacks more quotes from pro-immigration sources like Cato's Bier and attorneys without balancing depth.

While including both sides, the volume and placement favor critics, with pro-restriction views brief/minoritized.

Framing

Presents frontlog surge under Trump2 without noting prior temporary surges (e.g., pre-fee hikes 2024 back to zero), framing as new chaos from admin policy.

Ignores cyclical nature tied to filings/fees, implying deliberate delay.