Trump’s Approval Sinks Amid Unpopular War, Darkening G.O.P. Prospects…

Poll Finds Trump Approval Rating at Second-Term Low Amid Iran Conflict and Economic Concerns

A New York Times/Siena poll conducted May 11-15, 2026, shows President Donald Trump’s job approval rating at 37 percent, the lowest level recorded for his second term in the series. The survey of 1,507 registered voters found that 64 percent of respondents disapproved of his handling of the economy and that majorities expressed negative assessments of his management of the cost of living, immigration, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The same poll recorded that 63 percent of voters said the president should not initiate military force without congressional approval, while 52 percent said he should not resume operations against Iran if a diplomatic agreement to end the country’s nuclear program is not reached soon. Republicans remained the clearest base of support for the military campaign, with 70 percent favoring resumption of strikes in the absence of a deal and 73 percent expecting the operations to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.

The poll was fielded by live interviewers in English and Spanish, with 99 percent of contacts made by cellphone. Respondents were drawn from a list of registered voters, and results were weighted to match demographic benchmarks for party, race, and region. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

War Decision and Public Response

Sixty-four percent of all voters described the decision to begin military operations against Iran as the wrong choice. Among independents the figure reached 73 percent. Twenty-three percent of voters overall said the conflict had been worth the costs. Republicans diverged sharply: most approved of both the president’s job performance and the continuation of military action.

The administration has stated that the operations were undertaken to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Supporters of the policy have pointed to repeated Iranian statements threatening the United States and to the strategic importance of keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of a government that has pursued enrichment activities beyond limits set in prior international agreements. Critics have questioned the absence of prior congressional authorization and have highlighted rising energy prices linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Seventy percent of Republicans in the poll said military operations should resume if no agreement is reached, while 27 percent of Republicans said the president should not be permitted to use force without congressional approval. Overall, 63 percent of voters took the latter view.

Economic Indicators and Voter Assessments

The survey recorded a rise in the share of voters rating the national economy as “poor,” up 11 points since January to nearly 50 percent. The share saying the country is on the right track fell five points to 32 percent, with the largest drop occurring among Republicans. Twenty-eight percent of voters approved of the president’s handling of the cost of living, down six points from January.

Gasoline prices have averaged above $4.50 per gallon since late February, according to AAA data cited in the poll release. Several other indicators, including consumer confidence and household debt levels, have moved in a negative direction during the same period. The poll did not isolate the precise contribution of the Iran conflict to these trends from other factors such as ongoing supply-chain adjustments and prior inflation dynamics.

Republican voters remained evenly divided in their economic assessments, with roughly half describing conditions as fair or poor. Among all voters, 44 percent said Mr. Trump’s policies had hurt them personally, an increase from 36 percent in a fall 2025 survey. Forty-seven percent of independents gave that response, up from 41 percent.

Party Standing and Midterm Outlook

Democrats held a 10-point advantage in a hypothetical generic-ballot question for this year’s midterm elections, with 50 percent of registered voters saying they would support the Democratic candidate and 39 percent the Republican. The Democratic edge among independents was 18 points. Democrats were also eight points more likely than Republicans to say they were “almost certain” to vote.

Just 26 percent of voters expressed satisfaction with the Democratic Party. Forty-four percent of Democrats described themselves as unsatisfied with their own party. Twenty-three percent of Republicans said the same about theirs. In a separate question, 69 percent of independents disapproved of Mr. Trump’s job performance, up from 62 percent in January.

Republican map-drawing efforts in several states have produced an estimated structural advantage of six to 10 additional favorable House districts for the party, according to nonpartisan redistricting analyses. The poll did not measure the durability of that advantage under current national conditions.

Selected Voter Perspectives

Brent Klein Jr., a 43-year-old cleaning-company owner in Branson, Missouri, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and 2024, said he opposed the decision to strike Iran without congressional approval. He cited rising food prices and a desire for stable family finances as primary concerns.

Amanda Mann, a 44-year-old in-home nurse in Myrtle Creek, Oregon, said she supported continued operations to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, citing the country’s public rhetoric toward the United States.

Francine Alfano, a 56-year-old food-truck owner in Vineland, New Jersey, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024, said economic conditions had deteriorated after the start of military action and that higher fuel and food costs had affected her business.

Ronald Marsh, a 66-year-old retired professor in Grand Forks, North Dakota, who voted for Mr. Trump three times, said immigration enforcement remained the area of strongest performance while expressing reservations about other issues.

Matthew Berryhill, a 35-year-old recruiter in Marietta, Georgia, who identifies as a progressive Democrat, said he wished his party would demonstrate more concrete legislative opposition.

Poll Methodology Details

The survey reached more than 97,000 voters through nearly 260,000 calls. Weighting adjustments were applied to correct for underrepresentation of groups such as voters without college degrees. Full question wording, response order, and crosstabulations are available on the New York Times website. The poll was conducted before any potential breakthrough in ongoing diplomatic talks with Iran.

Additional economic data released during the polling period showed continued pressure on household budgets from elevated energy costs. The White House has maintained that the military campaign targets nuclear-related facilities and does not seek broader regime change. Congressional committees have begun hearings on war-powers questions raised by the operations.

The poll results will be used by both parties as they prepare for primary and general-election contests this fall. Turnout models and candidate recruitment decisions in competitive districts are expected to incorporate these findings alongside fundraising totals and local polling.