New Polymarket Accounts Place Bets on US-Iran Ceasefire Before Announcement

By [Your Name], Business Reporter

*Published: 2026-04-09*

A series of newly created accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket placed bets on a potential US-Iran ceasefire shortly before former President Donald Trump announced a two-week truce on April 8, 2026. Public blockchain data analyzed via the crypto analytics platform Dune indicates that multiple wallets, which had not previously placed bets, made "yes" wagers on the ceasefire market in the hours leading up to the announcement.

The ceasefire announcement came amid the early stages of a US-Iran conflict that escalated in 2026, with a temporary halt phase beginning on April 8. Trump posted on Truth Social around 6:30 p.m. ET, confirming the two-week pause. Earlier that day, Trump had posted a warning on social media stating that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. In the hours prior, there were limited public indications of an imminent deal.

Blockchain records show these wallets initiated their activity on Polymarket that day or in the preceding days, focusing bets on the ceasefire event. Betting shares on Polymarket range from $0 to $1, corresponding to estimated probabilities from 0% to 100%. Some wallets bought shares at low prices early in the day, while others entered later, around the time reports emerged of Pakistan's government urging Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. Trump later extended the ceasefire indefinitely on April 21 at Pakistan's request, though restrictions on Hormuz shipping and regional missile activity persisted.

Polymarket has marked the ceasefire contract as "disputed," citing ongoing Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile attacks in the area. Resolution of the dispute could take up to 48 hours, delaying payouts for some traders.

Public blockchain data does not reveal the identities behind the wallets. Polymarket employs proxy smart contract wallets, allowing a single user to operate multiple accounts. Only Polymarket holds internal data that could clarify whether these were distinct new users or existing ones creating additional wallets. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

This trading pattern echoes prior instances on Polymarket. Clusters of new accounts placed large bets hours before the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, as well as before certain military actions involving Iran.

Polymarket's operations have expanded under the second Trump administration. The platform previously faced US access restrictions that were eased during this period. Donald Trump Jr. holds a stake in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to rival platform Kalshi, contributing to the prediction market industry's growth amid reduced regulatory barriers.

Such well-timed bets by new accounts have drawn public scrutiny regarding the use of non-public information in prediction markets. Observers have noted similarities to traditional financial markets, where timing can raise questions about information access.

The ceasefire marked an initial de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran war, which involved tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's restrictions on shipping continued post-announcement, contributing to the market's disputed status. Traders on the "yes" side stood to gain if the contract resolved positively, while others awaited clarification.

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to wager on real-world events, with outcomes determined by platform resolution or external verification. The platform's blockchain transparency enables third-party analysis, such as via Dune, but limits insights into user identities.

As these markets grow, their integration with cryptocurrency and blockchain has facilitated rapid account creation and trading. The April 8 events highlight how external geopolitical developments can drive sharp price movements, benefiting early or well-positioned bettors.

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