Louisiana Senate Primary Competitive Despite Trump Endorsement of Letlow

By [Staff Reporter]

*Published: 2026-04-10*

Julia Letlow, a Republican U.S. House member seeking the party's nomination for an open Louisiana Senate seat, has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. However, she faces significant spending disadvantages, lower name recognition compared to some opponents, and competition from state Treasurer John Fleming, who also appeals to many Republican voters. These factors have limited her ability to consolidate support in the state's first closed Republican primary for a Senate race, scheduled for later this year.

Louisiana's primary system requires candidates to receive a majority of votes to win outright. If no candidate achieves that threshold, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff, regardless of party affiliation—a structure that retains elements of the state's traditional "jungle primary" despite the new closure to Republican voters only.

The race is seen by some observers as a measure of Trump's influence in Republican primaries, particularly given his average approval rating among Republicans has hovered in the mid-80s percent range in recent national polls from firms like Gallup and Rasmussen Reports, though overall approval ratings have varied.

GOP state Rep. Mike Bayham, who has not publicly endorsed a candidate, stated, "The Trump endorsement has not had a close-out move. Cassidy was ready for her. They defined her before she introduced herself."

Public polls from late March present a mixed picture of the contest. A memo from Letlow's campaign cited an internal poll conducted by BDPC Strategic in March 2026 showing Letlow at 29 percent, Fleming at 23-24 percent, and incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy at 19-20 percent. The memo also outlined potential runoff matchups, with Letlow leading Cassidy 50 percent to 24 percent and in a statistical tie with Fleming.

Mark Harris, an aide to Cassidy, described the race as "in the middle of a dogfight. Everyone’s expectation is that she would shoot to a large lead and that we’d all be running from behind. But frankly I think they just weren’t ready for this race."

Letlow's campaign asserts she holds the most momentum. She has secured endorsements from the Jefferson Parish Republican Executive Committee, one of the state's largest GOP organizations, and from Gov. Jeff Landry, who has had public disagreements with Cassidy and chose to back Letlow over the sitting senator.

A Letlow campaign aide noted, "We are talking about an incumbent who is underwater. Julia is surging. Her lead continues to grow the more the people learn that she’s endorsed by the President."

Trump's support for Letlow has included his endorsement, but additional involvement from his allies has been limited so far. The Make America Healthy Again PAC, aligned with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., announced a pledge to spend $1 million to support Letlow and oppose Cassidy, who has expressed reservations about Kennedy's nomination as Health secretary. Louisiana Republicans await decisions on further spending from MAGA Inc., Trump's super PAC, which reported $300 million in cash on hand. A spokesperson for MAGA Inc. and the White House did not respond to requests for comment on midterm plans, including potential aid for Letlow in the primary or runoff.

Cassidy, who is seeking reelection, maintains a substantial financial advantage. According to the ad tracking service AdImpact, Cassidy's campaign combined with the Louisiana Freedom Fund, a group supporting the senator, has spent more than $14 million on advertisements, primarily attacking Letlow. In contrast, Letlow's campaign and allied groups have spent $4.6 million. Upcoming Federal Election Commission reports, due next week, will provide updated details on fundraising for all candidates.

Letlow's television advertisements have emphasized her Trump endorsement, with limited direct attacks on Cassidy. Cassidy's campaign, however, has run ads criticizing Letlow, including one highlighting a 2020 video from her interview for the presidency of the University of Louisiana at Monroe, in which she discussed diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. Cassidy's ads have also criticized Letlow for stock trades in defense contractors during the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, which escalated in late February 2026 after U.S. strikes on Tehran killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated, closing the Strait of Hormuz and prompting heightened military tensions.

Cassidy launched his first TV ad on January 27, 2026, focusing on his fentanyl legislation, which Trump had praised.

In response to the DEI criticism, Letlow has highlighted Cassidy's vote for President Biden's economic stimulus package in 2021, which included provisions aimed at equity for underserved schools and businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In a March interview with a local news outlet, Letlow stated that DEI initiatives at the university "had been presented to us as something that would help students achieve the American dream," but that she later recognized the effort had been "hijacked by the radical left and turned into indoctrination."

The Letlow aide added, "Cassidy’s problem in this race is that he’s trying to make it an ideological race. The problem with that framing is that he has spent the past four years trying to undermine the president," citing Cassidy's initial reluctance to back Trump's 2024 presidential bid and his call for Trump to withdraw following the FBI's 2022 search of Mar-a-Lago related to classified documents.

Letlow represents a rural district in north Louisiana, distant from population centers like New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Her district's cultural profile aligns more closely with the deep South, differing from the Catholic, Cajun, and Creole influences in southern parishes.

East Baton Rouge Parish GOP Chair Woody Jenkins, who has not endorsed a candidate, said, "People haven’t met her. She’s almost invisible as a candidate. When you’re just meeting someone new in politics, and you hear all these bad things, you might have a first impression, but you tend to start having second thoughts. And he’s just relentless in it."

Fleming presents an additional challenge. Caddo Parish GOP Chair Matt Kay, who described himself as an "anybody but Cassidy voter," said he initially leaned toward Letlow but shifted interest to Fleming after reviewing her DEI comments, viewing Fleming as "more in touch with conservative voters." Kay noted, "The two runoff spots are wide open."

Fleming, a former U.S. House member and founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, has largely self-funded his campaign, which began last year. He has gained traction among rural Republicans through opposition to carbon capture projects, which he argues risk water contamination, impose taxpayer costs, and infringe on property rights.

Both Fleming and Letlow have criticized Cassidy's 2021 vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, describing it as a significant break from Trump's supporters. The closed primary format is expected by some to favor conservative candidates like Fleming.

Pollster John Couvillon, working for Fleming, stated, "Number one, you have a mistrust of Senator Cassidy amongst Republican based voters. Number two, since he does have a relatively Republican voting record, that doesn’t get him any great affections from Democrats either. So he’s kind of the proverbial man without a political country."

Cassidy retains support from some Republicans who view his impeachment vote as no longer disqualifying and value his seniority. They note that despite concerns over Kennedy's vaccine skepticism, Cassidy voted to confirm him, consistent with the Trump Cabinet.

St. Martin Parish GOP Chair Kelby Daigle said, "I don’t believe his vote to convict President Trump should be the reason we ought to oust him. I think it’s silly. We should move on. It’s old news."

*Andrew Howard contributed to this report.*

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