Trump Departs for State Visit to China as Iran Ceasefire Holds Uneasily

By Tamara Keith

*NPR*

*Published: 2026-05-12*


*Andrew Harnik/Getty Images AsiaPac*

President Donald Trump is scheduled to depart for a state visit to China on Tuesday, following an initial delay due to the U.S. conflict with Iran. The ceasefire agreement with Iran, which Trump described on Monday as being "on massive life support," remains in place but uncertain.

Kurt Campbell, chairman of The Asia Group and former top Biden administration adviser on China, described the timing of the visit as notable. "It is remarkable that President Trump is prepared to go to China under these circumstances," Campbell said. "But may I also say that it's also deeply unusual that China is prepared to host him."

China and Iran maintain close diplomatic and economic ties, including significant trade in oil. Prior to the U.S. blockade, China imported more than 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, accounting for about 90% of Iran's oil exports, according to energy analysts. The U.S. military conducted airstrikes against Iran for several weeks and has imposed a blockade on ships linked to Iran. Questions have arisen about potential Chinese assistance to Iran during the conflict, though no definitive evidence has been publicly confirmed. The visit proceeds as scheduled.

Campbell suggested that both leaders see value in the meeting. "It suggests that both believe they have interests in meeting," he said. "And I think part of that is a desire to keep a relationship that is fraught and challenging with a degree at least of equilibrium."

A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the decision to proceed aligns with presidential responsibilities. "A better question would be why would [Trump] not continue with this trip and all the other duties that he has as president," the official stated.

The agenda includes formal ceremonies, bilateral meetings on trade, discussions about establishing a U.S.-China Board of Trade to address bilateral economic relations, and potential talks on artificial intelligence technology to create "channels of deconfliction," according to the official.

Trump and Xi Jinping last met in October 2025 at Gimhae Air Base in Busan, South Korea. During that bilateral meeting, the leaders agreed to de-escalate trade tensions. Outcomes included China's resumption of U.S. soybean purchases, a pause on some restrictions for rare earth element exports to the U.S., and a reduction in tariffs on fentanyl-related imports from China by half. Trump announced the upcoming Beijing state visit at that time.

Trump rated the Busan meeting highly afterward. "From zero to 10 with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12," he said aboard Air Force One. Earlier this year, at a Washington meeting of world leaders, Trump recounted requesting an elaborate welcome. "I said but 'we have to put on the biggest display you've ever had in the history of China,'" Trump said. He added, "You know the last time I went to China, President Xi, he treated me so well."

Trump's itinerary in China features a welcome ceremony, two bilateral meetings with Xi, a state banquet, a visit to the Temple of Heaven, and a tea ceremony, all within less than 48 hours.

The U.S. delegation includes more than a dozen corporate executives, such as Apple's Tim Cook and Tesla's Elon Musk.

White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly previewed the trip on a call with reporters. "The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country," Kelly said. "These agreements will further rebalance trade with China while putting American workers, farmers and families first and safeguarding U.S. economic strength and national security."

Influence of the Iran Conflict

The visit was originally planned last fall amid efforts to sustain a trade truce. That remains a focus, alongside discussions influenced by the Iran conflict.

Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University, predicted the war would feature prominently. "I do think that this war will dominate the summit," Goldstein said. "Let's face it, it will push a lot of other things off the agenda. I mean, if for no other reason … Trump is focused on it because he wants it off his desk as it were."

Iran's foreign minister recently visited China and met with his counterpart. U.S. officials have credited China with encouraging Iran to accept the initial ceasefire, though Trump noted its fragility.

Goldstein speculated that Trump might request Xi's assistance in pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reach a broader agreement.

Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group noted potential shifts in dynamics. "The war in Iran has given President Xi sources of leverage that he would not have anticipated having at the beginning of this year," Wyne said. As one example, he cited U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals to replenish missile interceptors depleted during the conflict.

Trump has portrayed his relationship with Xi as unaffected. In a recent Fox Business interview with Maria Bartiromo, Trump said, "He's somebody I get along with very well. Just wrote me a beautiful letter." Trump initiated the exchange by sending a letter to Xi requesting no weapons supplies to Iran, following media reports of such activity. "And he wrote me a letter saying that essentially, he's not doing that," Trump recounted.

China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, has experienced some insulation from the Strait of Hormuz closure's economic effects. However, post-blockade data shows a drop in those imports, creating supply strains and incentives for China to support mediation efforts for energy security, per trade data.

Potential Agreements

Unlike some predecessors who raised human rights or Taiwan issues with Xi, Trump has expressed respect for Xi's leadership in China.

Dennis Wilder, a Georgetown University professor and former top China adviser to President George W. Bush, described Trump's approach. "It's not just hyperbole but the president is his own China officer," Wilder said. "And he believes he understands Xi Jinping, he believes he can negotiate good deals with China."

Analysts anticipate announcements on increased Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, other farm products, and Boeing aircraft, along with steps to formalize the trade truce.

Melanie Hart, senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, noted ongoing preparations. "Everything is still in flux; at this point, normally at least the economic deliverables would be nailed in. That is not the case," she said. "So this is going to be evolving up until the last minute."

The White House indicated that a U.S.-China Board of Trade, if agreed upon, would not be finalized immediately and would require further work by both sides.

Wilder highlighted this as the first of four planned Trump-Xi meetings this year, including Xi's state visit to the U.S. in the fall. "What we're seeing here is the setup for a year of intense dialogue to try and reset to a certain degree, the U.S.-China relationship," Wilder said.

The U.S.-China relationship has evolved since Trump's first presidential visit to China nearly a decade ago. Wyne of the International Crisis Group observed that China previously emphasized its status as a capable competitor during that trip. "This time around in the run up to the meeting between President Trump and President Xi, the Chinese side doesn't have to make that case because U.S. officials are making that case themselves, beginning with President Trump," Wyne said.

A White House national security strategy document released late last year refers to China as a "near peer," amid ongoing competition between the two nations for global influence.

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