Senate GOP majority in jeopardy as poll finds Dems 'pulled within striking distance'

Poll Shows Tight Contests in Six Senate Battleground States

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted across six competitive Senate states found the average race tied at 47 percent for each party. The surveys, released in late June 2026, covered Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas—states identified as the primary opportunities for Democrats to gain seats.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate. Democrats would need a net gain of at least four seats to secure a majority while also protecting their own vulnerable incumbents. The poll indicated that, if the election were held at the time of surveying, Republicans would likely retain enough of the contested seats to maintain control.

In the individual races, Republicans held narrow leads in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Texas was tied. Democrats led in Maine and held a seven-point advantage in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley. These results occurred even though Donald Trump carried five of the six states in the 2024 presidential election by an average margin of eight points.

The poll recorded Trump’s overall job approval at 43 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. On cost-of-living issues, 36 percent approved of his performance, including 24 percent of independents. Voters identified jobs, inflation and the economy as their top concerns and, by a 14-point margin, said his policies had done more harm than good on those measures. His handling of the conflict with Iran and gasoline prices also received lower marks. Immigration remained the issue on which his ratings were strongest.

Democratic Senate candidates recorded higher favorability ratings than their Republican opponents in five of the six states. In each state, voters were less likely to describe the Democratic candidate as “too far left” than to apply that description to the Democratic Party as a whole. The largest gap on this measure appeared in Iowa. Maine Democratic candidate Graham Platner was the exception, posting lower favorability than his opponent.

Voter enthusiasm differed by party. Ninety-three percent of Democratic respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 87 percent of Republicans. The poll was fielded before the November election and reflects conditions at that time.