Republican enthusiasm problem hits even core voters - The Washington …

Republican Groups Report Data on Voter Participation Ahead of Midterms

Republican organizations tracking voter engagement have identified lower levels of certainty about participating in the November midterm elections among some consistent party supporters, according to internal analyses and public polling released in recent weeks. The data comes as the party prepares for contests in which the president’s party has historically lost seats.

An analysis by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC, examined voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire, and Michigan who had participated in all four of the most recent primaries and general elections. The group’s executive director, Nathan Nascimento, stated that roughly one in five of these high-propensity Republican voters indicated they might stay home or consider supporting Democratic candidates. The primary concerns cited in the data were inflation and economic conditions.

Nascimento said door-knocking efforts by the organization typically shifted some of these voters toward Republican candidates or to an undecided position. The analysis did not include lower-propensity voters who supported Donald Trump in presidential years but have lower participation rates in midterm elections.

Washington Post and Ipsos polling conducted around the same period found Democrats holding a 10-percentage-point advantage among respondents who described themselves as absolutely certain to vote in November. On a generic congressional ballot, Democrats led Republicans by three points overall. Mitchell Brown, a Republican pollster at Cygnal, noted that Democratic self-reported enthusiasm matched levels observed before the 2018 midterms, while Republican enthusiasm measured lower than at the comparable point in that cycle.

Brown identified men under 40 as the subgroup showing the largest decline in stated participation intent among Republican-leaning voters, again citing economic and price concerns. Republican strategists have said such patterns can shift as the election approaches and more voters focus on the contests.

The Republican National Committee issued a statement asserting that Republicans remain united and on offense, citing what it described as the party’s largest war chest in its history. Spokeswoman Natalie Baldassarre said voters understand the stakes in the November elections.

In Iowa, where Republicans hold open races for governor and a Senate seat, AFP Action conducted door-knocking in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale. Some residents expressed criticism of the ongoing conflict involving Iran and of inflation levels. A smaller number indicated plans to support Democratic candidates.

In rural Harrison County, resident Lance Sulentic, who voted for Trump in the previous three presidential elections, stated that the president had not fulfilled several campaign promises on gas prices, food costs, energy prices, rebate checks, new wars, border wall construction, and deportations. Sulentic said he planned either to abstain or to vote for Democrats in the fall. Higher fuel costs for motorcycle travel were among the specific expenses he mentioned.

Republican senators have discussed internal legislative disagreements that have delayed action on several priority measures. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said the party needs to take steps to increase base participation and suggested some voters may believe lawmakers have not pursued certain goals aggressively enough. Among the stalled items is the Save America Act, which would require voter identification and proof of citizenship for registration. A White House spokesperson said the legislation remains a priority while the administration continues work on drug prices, job reshoring, and energy costs.

Some senators have urged the president to use his public platform and the resources of his affiliated political committee to increase turnout among lower-propensity supporters. Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota reported a conversation in which Trump linked turnout to passage of the voting legislation. The White House has pointed to a planned Republican midterm convention in Texas in September as one effort to increase engagement.

Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who is not seeking reelection, said he expects traditional Republican voters to participate but noted that economic conditions and the Iran conflict could affect support among moderates. He added that mobilizing the coalition that has been distinctive to Trump’s presidential candidacies would be necessary to narrow any participation gap.

The midterm environment includes structural factors such as redistricting changes implemented during the current administration and the typical midterm penalty for the president’s party. Republican strategists have stated that additional campaign activity closer to Election Day could alter current participation estimates.