What voters in 6 key states could tell us about the 2026 midterms

Voters in Six Competitive States Offer Views on Issues Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Voters cast their ballots inside the Arlington County Courthouse in Arlington, Va., on Sept. 18, which was the first day of early voting in the state for the midterm elections.

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Four weeks from now, the midterm elections will help decide the balance of power in Congress. Ahead of Election Day, Morning Edition will travel to six states with some of the most competitive races to hear what voters say is shaping their decisions.

Recent polling provides some indications of current voter preferences. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found registered voters favor Democrats for Congress over Republicans by 12 percentage points. President Trump remains a factor in voter considerations, with 45% saying their vote for Congress is a vote against him, compared with about a quarter who say they are voting to support him.

Across the political spectrum, one issue frequently mentioned is the cost of living and its implications for household finances. Multiple factors contribute to these pressures. International conflicts, including U.S. engagements connected to Iran, have been linked by analysts to fluctuations in energy prices. Federal trade measures, such as tariffs enacted in prior years, have also been associated with changes in consumer goods costs. Policy decisions at the federal level from both recent administrations have intersected with local economic conditions in ways that voters in several states describe as difficult to separate from daily expenses.

Candidates from both major parties have campaigned on measures intended to address affordability. Voters have also referenced immigration enforcement, the expansion of data centers in certain regions, and procedures for casting and counting ballots, including state-level restrictions implemented after prior elections. In addition, some races raise questions about the strength of traditional party alignments and what voters expect from their own parties.

Steve Inskeep is reporting from North Carolina and Georgia. North Carolina features an open Senate seat along with congressional districts redrawn after the most recent census and court reviews. Georgia has races for Senate and governor in a state where recent elections have shown support for candidates from both parties.

Inskeep stated he is listening for voters who view the election as directly relevant to their circumstances. He plans to speak with residents affected by federal policy shifts on immigration, government operations, education, taxes, foreign policy, and the economy. Trump is not on the ballot but has encouraged voters to treat the contests as tied to his record, and the scale of administration actions makes such connections likely in voter discussions.

Michel Martin is traveling to Ohio and Michigan. Ohio has competitive contests for governor and Senate amid ongoing economic concerns. In Springfield, reporting will examine the conclusion of temporary protected status for certain Haitian immigrants and its effects on a community where those immigrants form a notable portion of the local population, along with any resulting shifts in how residents align with parties.

Michigan presents separate dynamics. Trump carried the state by a narrow margin in 2024, when dissatisfaction with the prior administration’s approach to the conflict in Gaza influenced some voters, especially in Arab American areas. The state also recorded higher participation among younger voters. An open Senate seat and governor’s race this cycle allow observation of whether those patterns persist and what part younger voters and Black voters play in Democratic support.

Martin described Ohio and Michigan as states whose outcomes have historically reflected broader national trends. In Michigan, questions will focus on the primary motivations for voter choices after the state has alternated between parties in major races. Martin said the goal is to determine whether voters express anger, disappointment, or fatigue.

Leila Fadel is reporting from Maine, where the Senate race involves Republican Sen. Susan Collins seeking reelection against Democrat Troy Jackson. Immigration enforcement and trade policy appear in local discussions. Fadel said the reporting will examine what factors most influence voters and the continuing role of party identification. Maine shares a border with Canada, so federal tariff policies and related trade measures affect businesses with cross-border ties. The state has also experienced changes from federal immigration enforcement actions. Fadel will ask voters what outcomes they seek from candidates and whether the party presenting those positions affects their decisions.

A Martínez is covering Texas, where Republicans are assessing whether recent increases in support among Latino voters will continue. The U.S. Senate race places the state in the contest for chamber control. The Republican majority in the state legislature adjusted five congressional districts, including three containing larger shares of Latino voters. Martínez said the reporting will examine the party’s approach to Latino voters and its potential effect on Senate control.

Over the next four weeks, Morning Edition will cover races and voter groups across these states, focusing on the issues voters identify as most important, any shifts from prior cycles, and indications of national direction. Coverage from Maine begins Oct. 6, followed by Texas on Oct. 13, then North Carolina and Georgia, and finally Ohio and Michigan. Reports will appear on Morning Edition, NPR.org, the NPR app, and the Up First newsletter.

This piece was edited by Treye Green.