Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy Exposes Iran's Deepening Power Struggle

Iranian Leadership Shows Internal Divisions During Hormuz Diplomacy

Iran’s economy faces high inflation, currency depreciation, and labor actions by workers, pensioners, and teachers. Against this backdrop, Iranian officials have displayed open disagreements over policy choices. Statements from government figures about unity and resistance contrast with reports of competing approaches inside parliament and security institutions.

Divisions have appeared in state-affiliated media. Iranian newspapers have described disputes within the Majlis and among security and diplomatic bodies. On May 25, elections for the third session of the 12th parliament featured efforts by some factions to reduce the influence of Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf. Ghalibaf retained his position, yet the contest highlighted differences between two main approaches. One group favors limited agreements with the United States and other Western governments to reduce the risk of further domestic protests. The other group opposes such steps, arguing they would reduce support among core constituencies and affect Iran’s regional alliances.

These differences influence decisions on foreign policy. Ghalibaf traveled to Doha with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati. Discussions addressed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, access to previously restricted Iranian assets, and measures to lower tensions after recent regional incidents. Reports describe a possible framework involving a temporary halt in hostilities, phased adjustments to sanctions, increased Iranian oil sales, and renewed talks on nuclear issues alongside assurances on maritime security.

The proposed arrangement reflects pressures on multiple parties. Iranian authorities seek economic measures to address fiscal strains, while U.S. officials aim to maintain stability in a key energy route without extended military involvement. Limited contacts with Washington have drawn criticism from Iranian hardline commentators.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that major decisions require approval from Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly in recent periods; official channels have distributed statements attributed to him. Some observers have speculated about his health following reported strikes that affected senior figures, though no confirmed public information has been released. Statements linked to Mojtaba Khamenei have called for a regional order independent of U.S. influence and have referenced support for allied groups, which analysts interpret as efforts to maintain backing from domestic and regional supporters during negotiations.

Editor of the newspaper Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, has criticized the negotiating team, claiming it risks reducing Iran’s position regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Parliament members Amir-Hossein Sabeti and Hamid Rasaee have expressed similar reservations, stating that past patterns of U.S.-Iran relations indicate limited reliability in agreements. These positions coincide with additional U.S. strikes on targets linked to Iranian-supported groups. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that diplomatic channels remain open.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid has voiced concerns that any interim arrangement could provide Iran with economic relief at the expense of Israeli security priorities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated Israel’s right to conduct independent military operations. Discussions within Israel reflect differing assessments of U.S. policy direction.

Domestic protests by workers, teachers, pensioners, and younger Iranians have continued despite security measures. Iranian authorities have responded with a combination of external talks and internal controls. Neither policy approach has produced a long-term resolution to economic or political challenges. The absence of public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei, ongoing public demonstrations, and tensions involving Washington and Jerusalem have contributed to uncertainty about future leadership arrangements and policy consistency.

Struan Stevenson served as a member of the European Parliament for Scotland from 1999 to 2014 and chaired the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup from 2004 to 2014.