A Deal With Iran Over Hormuz May Require a Compromise From Trump

U.S. and Iran Seek Agreement on Reopening Strait of Hormuz

Negotiations between the United States and Iran over access to the Strait of Hormuz continue, with both sides indicating that an agreement could be reached soon. The waterway normally carries about 20 percent of global oil shipments. The Trump administration has stated it will not accept terms that grant Iran permanent control over commercial traffic, including any system of fees or tolls.

Eliot Cohen, who served as counselor at the State Department during the George W. Bush administration, said any arrangement that leaves Iran with greater influence over the strait would be difficult for President Trump to accept. Cohen noted that Trump views international outcomes in terms of clear winners and losers and that an agreement perceived as a concession would carry political costs.

David Schenker, a former State Department official in the first Trump administration and now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said economic pressures from continued disruption could lead the president to accept limited changes in the strait’s management. Schenker said the president has signaled urgency in resolving the situation and that such a step remains possible despite its implications for global shipping patterns.

President Trump has maintained that the United States retains substantial military capacity. In a social media post on Thursday, he stated that the military possesses large quantities of weapons and that production continues. He also warned of legal action against individuals who disclose information about stockpiles. The comments followed a Washington Post report describing internal discussions at a recent Cabinet meeting at Camp David about weapons inventories.

A senior administration official described the Cabinet discussion on Iran as substantive and said no major disagreement occurred. The official spoke on condition of anonymity while discussing internal deliberations. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has published analyses based on budget documents indicating reduced stocks of certain missile interceptors used in recent operations.

When asked about munitions supplies, President Trump told reporters that additional quantities are always required. He described some categories as widely available and others as more constrained, without providing specific figures. He added that the military could draw on stockpiles maintained at overseas locations if necessary.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Republican senators this week to discuss a proposed increase in Pentagon funding included in a broader budget measure. Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat and former Navy pilot, said the current shortages result from an operation that struck more than 14,000 targets without a clearly defined objective. Kelly stated that a narrower target list might have reduced the scale of munitions expended.

President Trump has also posted that his approval ratings stand at their highest level. He cited employment figures and what he described as the denuclearization of Iran. An Associated Press-NORC poll conducted in late July found that roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults viewed the conflict with Iran as not worthwhile, including most Democrats and independents and 37 percent of Republicans.

The president has said the strait is partially open to commercial traffic under a route maintained near Oman’s coast. He noted that Iranian forces retain the ability to deploy mines or launch attacks on vessels. Maritime data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded at least two ship strikes in the strait during the past week and several additional reports of near misses or warnings attributed to entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Weekly transits rose to 84 last week from 45 the previous week, compared with more than 700 in a typical pre-crisis period.

U.S. military statements this week described the international route near Oman as open to commercial traffic. Iranian officials have said the strait will not return to its pre-conflict status as a fully open international passage. U.S. and Iranian representatives have described a possible temporary arrangement that would route inbound traffic through an Iranian-controlled corridor and outbound traffic through an Omani-controlled corridor. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said any such routes would not include tolls or charges. The official added that the administration prefers a diplomatic resolution and retains leverage in the talks.

Vessel operators continue to assess risks associated with remaining Iranian missile and drone capabilities. Traffic volumes remain well below normal levels despite the reported increase last week.