Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s Iran gamble has produced a crisis reshaping the global order

US-Iran Strikes Continue Over Strait of Hormuz Control

Good morning. Within two hours of entering No 10 on Monday afternoon, Andy Burnham held his first call with Donald Trump. After discussing football, with both noting England’s performance in the tournament, and Manchester, the new prime minister extended an invitation to visit the city, the conversation turned to the strait of Hormuz.

The United States has conducted strikes on Iran for the eleventh consecutive night, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. These followed Iranian missile strikes on US air bases and facilities in neighbouring Gulf states. Gulf governments have stated that some strikes hit desalination plants. Both sides state their operations aim to prevent the other from controlling the strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carried 20% of global oil shipments prior to the current conflict. Commercial vessels transporting oil, gas and fertiliser remain halted.

US operations began on 28 February with stated aims that later shifted toward securing passage through the strait. Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies and author of Iran’s Grand Strategy, discussed the situation for today’s First Edition. That interview follows the headlines.

Five big stories

UK politics | Andy Burnham has faced questions over funding for policy pledges while directing his cabinet to review options for addressing the cost of living.

UK news | Joshua Kerry, 28, appeared in court charged with the murder of former MP Ann Widdecombe. Prosecutors allege he struck the former Conservative minister 21 times with a hammer at her home in Haytor, Devon.

Middle East | US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth informed the Senate that operations related to the US and Israel actions against Iran have cost $37.5bn to date. Lawmakers raised concerns over expenditure and the deaths of three US service members last week.

Climate crisis | Water restrictions affecting approximately 23 million people are scheduled to begin this weekend as parts of England and Wales approach drought conditions.

Ukraine | President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and proposed a new role for a previously dismissed defence minister, following earlier protests.

Developments in the Strait of Hormuz

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu initiated military action against Iran on 28 February. Trump had stated during the 2024 campaign that he would not start wars. The strikes occurred without prior public mobilisation or detailed congressional notification on the scale of sustained operations. Early statements from the administration referenced regime change objectives, later adjusted to focus on reopening shipping lanes.

Nasr noted that initial planning appeared to anticipate limited resistance and rapid resolution. Iranian forces retained operational capacity after the opening strikes, which included the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iranian missile and drone responses continued, and domestic protests did not produce the scale of change some assessments had projected.

The conflict has now lasted five months. Public opinion polling in the United States shows opposition levels comparable to those recorded during the Vietnam War at a similar duration. Houthi forces have issued statements threatening actions against Saudi shipping routes.

Ceasefire Terms and Subsequent Breakdown

A memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June by the United States and Iran established a temporary halt to strikes and a 60-day period for further talks. The document addressed, among other items, arrangements for the strait. The pause ended after Iranian forces struck three commercial tankers operating near Omani waters outside the corridor designated by Iranian authorities.

Nasr described the choice available after a violation: respond to maintain the agreement or treat the incident as grounds to terminate it. The United States selected the second course. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated this week that the immediate priority is restoration of oil transit through the strait.

Prior to 28 February, vessels had transited the strait without closure. Iranian officials have indicated interest in a system of tolls for passage. Negotiations remain active. Nasr stated the alternatives now facing the United States are either a prolonged conflict that keeps the strait closed or further escalation.

Assessments of Initial Planning

Netanyahu stated in an earlier interview that the implications of potential closure of the strait became clearer as operations progressed. Some analysts had previously identified closure as a high-risk outcome. The US government has reduced the number of career Iran specialists in relevant agencies; one former State Department official on the negotiating team departed after public criticism from activist Laura Loomer.

Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute observed that experienced observers of Iranian decision-making would have noted differences from standard commercial negotiation patterns.

Economic Effects

Higher oil prices have contributed to increased inflation and elevated government borrowing costs. Projections indicate that absence of an agreement by 2027 could reduce global growth by 1.3% or more. European gas supplies, increasingly sourced from Qatar following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have faced production adjustments. Some forecasts reference the possibility of energy shortages during the coming winter.

Proposals on Navigation and Legal Framework

Trump suggested at one point that the United States could collect fees for safe passage through the strait. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and several European governments had previously described such fees as inconsistent with existing international law. Neither the United States nor Iran is a party to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Freedom of navigation principles have been cited by multiple states as a basis for opposing unilateral toll systems.

Nasr noted that other coastal states might examine similar leverage over chokepoints if they perceive vulnerability to external attack.

Additional Reporting

Alice Lassman examined how younger users interact with AI systems for personal conversations. Ed Miliband’s transition from energy policy to the Foreign Office raises questions about continuity of prior climate initiatives, as discussed by Fiona Harvey. Anna Moore reported on survivor-led efforts concerning drug-facilitated sexual offences. Gaby Hinsliff reviewed privacy implications of new wearable camera devices from Meta. Neil Mackay assessed the Scottish independence movement in relation to developments at Westminster.

Sport

Cycling | Remco Evenepoel won stage 16 of the Tour de France in a time trial, reducing the overall lead of Tadej Pogacar.

Tennis | The French Open announced that players will receive a share of tournament revenue, marking a change in prize-money distribution.

Football | La Liga president Javier Tebas criticised FIFA and called for the resignation of its president, Gianni Infantino.

Front Pages

The Guardian leads with Burnham’s instructions to cabinet on living costs. The Times reports signals of spending restraint. The i Paper repeats emphasis on living costs. The Mail questions funding sources. The Financial Times notes a decision against raising tax allowances. The Telegraph covers early release considerations for those convicted in the Pc Harper case. Several tabloids report court details from the Widdecombe proceedings.

Additional Context

US military casualties have prompted congressional questions about operational control. Iranian statements continue to link actions to defence of territorial claims over the strait. Both governments maintain that their respective operations respond to the other’s prior moves. Negotiations on permanent arrangements remain open as of this week.