In Texas, Cornyn and Paxton's Senate primary runoff tests Trump's gri…

Texas Senate Primary Runoff Between Incumbent Cornyn and Attorney General Paxton Tests Party Dynamics

Senate Republicans face a competitive general election in Texas regardless of the outcome in Tuesday’s primary runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Public polling has shown Paxton leading Cornyn ahead of the vote. Republican leaders in the Senate have supported Cornyn, citing his record as more likely to prevail against Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico in November. Paxton has faced multiple allegations of corruption, financial issues, and personal conduct. Fundraising reports show Cornyn and Talarico have raised more than Paxton.

Cornyn stated at a Houston event Thursday that a Paxton nomination would require Senate Republicans to redirect substantial resources from other races. “It would be hundreds of millions of dollars, and there’s still a good chance he would lose,” Cornyn said. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and are defending seats in Maine, Ohio, and North Carolina while targeting Democratic seats in Georgia and Michigan. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said last week that the party has 24 seats up for election compared with nine for Democrats.

Texas campaigns require significant spending due to the state’s size and media markets. The 2024 Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Colin Allred exceeded $210 million in advertising, according to AdImpact. Talarico has raised more than $27 million since January. Paxton has raised just over $7 million and held about $2 million in cash at the start of May. Lone Star Liberty PAC, the largest super PAC backing Paxton, reported roughly $1.9 million on hand at the beginning of the month.

Cornyn won a narrow plurality in the March primary. Paxton has drawn stronger support from voters who participate in runoffs. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton last week after Senate Republicans and Trump’s advisers had urged an endorsement of Cornyn. Rep. Lance Gooden, a Paxton backer, described the endorsement as decisive.

Cornyn has not lost a statewide election in Texas. He was the first Republican elected attorney general since Reconstruction and later served as Senate majority whip from 2013 to 2019. He sought the majority leader post in 2024. His supporters include former Gov. Rick Perry, former Sen. Phil Gramm, and Ross Perot Jr. Perry’s Lone Star Freedom Project super PAC spent more than $17 million on Cornyn’s behalf. One Nation, a group aligned with Republican leadership, spent more than $10 million supporting him. Cornyn has raised more than $414 million for Republican candidates and committees during his Senate tenure.

Matt Mackowiak, a Cornyn spokesman, said the senator’s donor relationships developed over decades would be difficult to replicate for another candidate. Cornyn has warned that a Paxton nomination could affect down-ballot Republican candidates in Texas House races. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus said Republicans would face challenges if they nominated Paxton.

A Paxton spokesman declined to comment. The Senate primary has already set records for spending, with Cornyn and his supporters exceeding $90 million, according to AdImpact. Other Texas races, including the Republican primary for attorney general between Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton, have also drawn significant expenditures.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has criticized Paxton. Its communications director, Joanna Rodriguez, described his conduct in July as “truly repulsive and disgusting.” The group has not detailed its plans for the general election if Paxton wins the nomination. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Republican leadership, stayed out of the primary and has remained neutral in the runoff.

Gooden said Republican leaders would need to match or exceed their primary spending to retain the seat if Paxton is nominated. Cornyn stated this month that he would support the Republican nominee in the general election.