Trump’s Texas Senate Primary Win Is Going to Backfire Spectacularly

Ken Paxton Wins Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Against John Cornyn

May 28, 2026

Ken Paxton defeated incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff for Texas’s Senate seat on May 26, 2026. Paxton, the state attorney general, will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the November general election. The outcome follows former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton on May 19.

Paxton’s campaign emphasized alignment with Trump’s policy positions. Cornyn’s Senate voting record aligned with Trump’s agenda at a reported 99 percent rate, compared with 95 percent for Texas Senator Ted Cruz, according to congressional tracking data. Cornyn had served in the Senate since 2002 and held leadership positions including majority whip. Paxton has held the Texas attorney general position since 2015 and has filed multiple lawsuits challenging federal policies.

Trump did not endorse in the initial primary, which left Cornyn short of a majority. After the endorsement, Paxton secured the nomination. Similar patterns occurred in other Texas Republican runoffs. In the race to succeed Paxton as attorney general, state Senator Mayes Middleton defeated U.S. Representative Chip Roy. In the race for Texas railroad commissioner, Bo French defeated the incumbent after Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had called for French’s resignation from a county party post following a social media poll French posted in 2025 that listed “Jews” and “Muslims” as options for “bigger threat to America.”

Paxton’s record as attorney general includes lawsuits against California vehicle emissions standards in coordination with America First Legal, an antitrust settlement involving agricultural data brokers, and litigation against Beto O’Rourke’s political fundraising activities. A federal judge dismissed one of the O’Rourke-related suits. Paxton has also faced ongoing legal proceedings related to securities fraud allegations stemming from 2015, which he has denied.

Fundraising reports showed Paxton raised less than Cornyn during the primary period. Talarico reported a large fundraising total after the runoff results. Republican strategists have discussed allocating substantial resources to the general election contest, with some estimates reaching $250 million for the seat. Democrats have indicated they will also direct significant spending to the race.

A poll conducted before the runoff found that 90 percent of Cornyn primary voters said they would support Paxton in a general election matchup against Talarico, while 2 percent said they would support Talarico. The poll’s margin of error was reported near 3 percent. Texas voter demographics include a Latino population that constitutes approximately 25 percent of the electorate. A New York Times analysis of voting patterns has noted shifts among both Latino and white voters in recent cycles.

Cornyn has not issued a public statement on future plans following the defeat. Previous defeated incumbents in other states, such as Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, have made critical remarks about Trump after their losses. Cornyn previously described Trump in 2023 as a figure whose time had passed in certain respects.

The general election contest will determine control implications for the U.S. Senate. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. The race is expected to draw national attention and substantial spending from both parties.