Trump to warn NATO countries against using 'funny math' on defense — as key allies struggle to do the minimum

President Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO leaders on Tuesday and raise concerns about how alliance members calculate and report their defense expenditures. The discussions come as NATO countries report their current spending levels and future budget plans at the summit in Turkey.

NATO members reached the alliance’s 2% of GDP defense spending guideline in 2025, according to data compiled by the organization. This marked an increase from six members meeting the target by the end of Trump’s first term. The 2% figure originated as a 2014 commitment that gained renewed attention during Trump’s first presidency.

Last year, NATO members agreed to work toward a higher target of 5% of GDP on defense-related outlays by 2030. The agreement divides the target into 3.5% for direct military spending on personnel, weapons, and equipment, plus 1.5% for broader security investments such as infrastructure and civil preparedness. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that members are progressing toward the updated goal.

Several large European economies face constraints from slower growth and domestic budget pressures. The United Kingdom currently allocates 2.31% of GDP to defense, according to figures from the Atlantic Council. British officials announced an additional $20 billion in planned defense funding last week, though the sources of those funds and the resulting percentage of GDP remain under discussion. The United Kingdom has indicated it will not reach the full 5% target and has instead set an internal goal of 3.5% by 2035, which officials have described as difficult to achieve given current economic conditions. The country’s active-duty army is at its smallest size in more than 200 years.

France reached just over 2% of GDP on defense last year. Government plans call for an increase of roughly 0.5 percentage points by 2030. Italy’s prime minister has outlined a path to raise spending from approximately 2% to 2.8% of GDP. Spain’s government has stated it will maintain defense spending at 2.1% of GDP and has declined to adopt the 5% target.

Germany, the largest economy in NATO, has circulated budget documents indicating a trajectory toward 5% of GDP by 2030, according to reporting by Reuters. Eastern European members have recorded higher current spending rates. Poland allocates 4.5% of GDP, while Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia also exceed the previous 2% guideline. These levels exceed the percentage proposed for the United States this year.

The Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Albania reported reaching the 2% threshold for 2025, but NATO has requested additional detail on the composition of those figures. Some reported expenditures included infrastructure projects such as road construction that fall outside direct military categories. NATO officials have asked for clearer accounting at the current summit.

Jerry McGinn of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that geographic proximity to Russia correlates with higher defense spending among several members. He stated that countries nearer Russia have adjusted priorities since 2022. A senior NATO official told Reuters that sustained spending near 2% would place members off the trajectory required for the 3.5% direct military component of the 2030 target.

Trump administration officials have indicated that the president will emphasize measurable progress on spending plans and the exclusion of non-defense items from reported totals. One official described defense burden-sharing as a continuing priority from the first term. The meeting occurs against the backdrop of NATO’s decision not to authorize use of member air bases for certain U.S. operations related to Iran.

NATO’s formal reporting process requires members to submit both current expenditures and multi-year projections. The summit agenda includes review of those submissions to assess alignment with the 2024 agreement. Countries that have already exceeded 2% continue to submit updated plans alongside those still approaching the earlier benchmark.

The United Kingdom’s recent political and economic challenges have affected budget debates, with officials acknowledging trade-offs between defense and other domestic programs. France and Italy face similar fiscal pressures tied to debt levels and growth rates. Spain’s position reflects a policy choice to limit increases beyond the current 2.1% level.

Poland’s 4.5% allocation includes significant procurement of armored vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems. Baltic states have similarly directed funds toward equipment modernization and personnel expansion. These patterns illustrate variation across the alliance in both current outlays and stated future targets.

NATO continues to compile standardized data on spending categories to allow comparison across members. The distinction between direct military outlays and supporting investments remains central to assessments of progress toward the 2030 framework. Officials expect further clarification on reporting methods during the Turkey meetings.