U.S. Allies in Asia Voice Concerns Over Extended Middle East Conflict

By Rebecca Tan and Huiyee Chiew

TAIPEI, Taiwan — March 28, 2026

Allies and partners of the United States in Asia have expressed concerns that a prolonged U.S. military engagement in the Middle East could divert resources from regional security issues, particularly those involving China. Officials in cities including Tokyo, Manila, Taipei and Seoul have raised these points amid recent U.S. military escalations against Iran.

Over the past month, the U.S. has intensified its operations against Iran, leading to higher oil prices and natural gas shortages that have affected Asian economies. These developments have coincided with the redeployment of certain U.S. military assets from the Indo-Pacific region. For instance, components of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and Patriot missile batteries were relocated from South Korea to the Persian Gulf in February and March 2026, according to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. Lee opposed the move but accepted it, stating that South Korea's own defenses were sufficient to counter North Korean threats.

Additionally, thousands of U.S. Marines stationed in Japan were redirected westward. A planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, originally set for this month, was postponed. U.S. defense contractors and Taiwanese officials indicated that the meeting was expected to lead to announcements of additional U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The White House announced on Wednesday that Trump would visit Beijing on May 14-15 instead. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested that the conflict with Iran could conclude by then.

Asian leaders have indicated they are monitoring the situation closely as the Trump administration seeks to conclude its operations against Iran. Some had anticipated a U.S. declaration of victory following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Kuan-ting Chen, chair of Taiwan's legislature Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, noted, "But that wasn’t the case. So now we don’t know."

On Monday, Trump stated that the U.S. was negotiating a "TOTAL RESOLUTION" with Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected this characterization, describing Trump's remarks as "efforts to reduce energy prices and gain time to implement his military plans," according to Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency. The Pentagon has deployed thousands of paratroopers to the Middle East, which some interpret as preparation for a potential ground operation.

U.S. officials have assured regional partners of continued commitment to Indo-Pacific security. They argue that neutralizing Iran as a threat will ultimately allow for greater focus on Asia. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump has maintained "close contact with all our partners" during the conflict. "The United States continues to project power and maintain a strong defensive posture around the world," she added.

During a meeting this month in New York, U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby told Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. that there would be "no change" to the U.S.-Philippine defense alliance, according to Philippine Ambassador to the U.S. Jose Manuel "Babe" Romualdez. Romualdez said, "We were told there’s no immediate concern. But we may have to review that depending on how long this Iran crisis continues."

Certain analysts argue that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, combined with the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, demonstrate American military capabilities that could deter Chinese actions, such as an attempt to retake Taiwan by force or expand territorial claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. However, Kuan-ting Chen emphasized that such deterrence requires U.S. assets to be available in the region. "Military assets cannot be deployed at two places at the same time … Even though the United States is a very resourceful country, there is a limit," he said from Taipei.

Chen also highlighted risks if U.S. ground forces enter Iran, potentially leading to a lengthy occupation similar to those in Iraq or Afghanistan under previous administrations. U.S. military engagements in the Middle East have spanned multiple U.S. presidencies, including both Republican and Democratic ones. Taiwan's reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies adds another layer of concern. Taiwan imports nearly all of its oil from the Gulf region, as do the Philippines (95 percent), Japan (95 percent, with 70 percent transiting the Strait of Hormuz) and South Korea (67 percent). Disruptions from the conflict have strained supplies, prompting the Philippines to declare a national energy emergency this week and Japan to tap its oil stockpiles.

The Philippines this week declared a national energy emergency. Japan announced it would draw from its strategic oil reserves.

"We need our allies to understand: The only peer that is the strength of the United States is China," Chen said, noting that threats from Venezuela, Iran and Cuba are comparatively limited. "We need to focus."

Delayed Arms Deliveries

Prior to the onset of U.S. strikes on Iran, Taiwan had advanced its defense preparations. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te announced in November a proposed $40 billion special defense budget. In December, the Trump administration approved $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, a record amount.

Further sales were anticipated in 2026. U.S. officials had informed Taiwan of plans to approve a second package exceeding $11 billion, including advanced interceptor missiles, early in the year, according to U.S. defense contractors and Taiwanese officials speaking anonymously about private discussions. The White House has placed this announcement on hold.

"Things that are meant to happen, aren’t happening," said one U.S. defense contractor.

Some observers suggest the postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting allows time to resolve the Middle East situation before negotiations, preventing China from using it as leverage. William Yang, a Northeast Asia researcher at the International Crisis Group, countered that the delay could enable Xi to strengthen demands that reduce U.S. support for Taiwan.

Perceptions of U.S. overextension in Latin America and the Middle East might signal to Beijing a willingness to trade reduced Taiwan support for economic concessions, such as a trade deal alleviating U.S. domestic pressures. Subtle shifts, like changing U.S. statements from "does not support" to merely "opposes" Taiwan independence, or capping arms sales, could amplify this perception.

"Any kind of passive decline in support of Taiwan would be seen as conceding to Beijing," said Liang-chih Evans Chen of Taiwan's government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research. If Trump omits mention of Taiwan after the Xi summit, he added, Taiwanese leaders would be "very nervous."

Reduced U.S. focus on Taiwan could embolden China elsewhere. Satellite imagery indicates ongoing Chinese island-building in the South China Sea, opposed by Vietnam and the Philippines. On Tuesday, Chinese coast guard vessels conducted what the Philippines described as a "clearing operation" against Philippine fishing vessels near a shoal 140 miles from its coast.

Chinese coast guard activity near the disputed Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands to China) reached a record high in 2025, according to Japanese authorities. Japan faces constitutional limits on deploying forces beyond direct national security threats. Tokyo officials worry that declining U.S. requests for support against Iran could undermine American commitments to Japanese territories.

"It is crucial to avoid a situation where the U.S. and China form a G-2 [Group of Two] and ignore Japan or Taiwan," said Tetsuo Kotani, a security expert at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. "But to prevent that, Japan must cooperate on the Iran and Hormuz issue."

Regional Strategic Interests

Asian officials have emphasized the region's importance to U.S. interests. Japan plays a key role in securing rare earth minerals amid Chinese dominance. The Philippines borders critical sea lanes for goods reaching the U.S. Taiwan and South Korea produce most advanced semiconductors essential for U.S. technologies, including artificial intelligence. At the January World Economic Forum, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that disruptions to Asia's semiconductor supply could cause an "economic apocalypse."

"Peace in this region is core to American national interest," said Wang Ting-yu, a senior Taiwanese legislator from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. He expressed confidence in eventual U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, citing "thousands of meetings over more than two years."

Former U.S. official Kurt Campbell, who shaped the Biden administration's Asia policy, expressed doubt about a quick resolution. "Experience tells us that once drawn into the quagmire of an ill-defined conflict, American strategists have had difficulty extracting themselves from the morass," he wrote this week.

The conflict has provided China opportunities to portray the U.S. as unreliable. In Taiwan, Chinese messaging has linked fuel shortages to calls for reunification, promising stable energy. After South Korean President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged the THAAD relocation, Chinese state media republished an op-ed questioning South Korea's hosting of the system. "Whether the ROK should continue to bear the diplomatic, security, and social costs associated with hosting the THAAD system deserves serious consideration," wrote a professor at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics.

Chinese leaders appear to view the situation as strategically advantageous without direct involvement, according to George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group advisory firm. "The general attitude of the Chinese government is let’s wait and see. This is not our war … So let the U.S. be dragged down," he said. "Let history repeat."

Chie Tanaka in Tokyo and Rudy Lu in Taipei contributed to this report.

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