Key US voters say economy is getting worse ahead of midterms, exclusive poll finds

Poll Shows Widespread Pessimism on Economy Among Key Voter Groups Ahead of Midterms

With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, a Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian found that majorities of independents, rural voters, and some Republicans expressed pessimism about current economic conditions. The survey, fielded online from September 24 to October 3, 2026, among 3,998 U.S. adults, recorded that 65 percent of independents described the economy as worse than a year earlier, compared with 48 percent who said the same in a September 2024 survey.

Overall, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned about a possible recession, and 61 percent stated they believed the United States was already in one. Standard measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research have not classified the economy as being in recession during this period. The same poll showed that 28 percent of Republicans said the economy was improving, down from 49 percent in February 2026 and 39 percent in February 2025.

Recent price data cited in the poll release indicated that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months ending in September 2026, the highest such reading before a midterm election outside the pandemic period since 1990. Average retail gasoline prices stood more than $1.20 per gallon above levels recorded one year earlier, with California drivers paying an average of $6.20 per gallon according to AAA. The survey found that two-thirds of respondents identified gasoline and grocery prices as their top voting issues, followed by overall living expenses, healthcare costs, and foreign affairs.

The period covered by the poll followed the start of U.S. military operations against Iran in early 2026. Energy analysts have linked subsequent increases in crude-oil benchmarks and refined-product prices to supply disruptions and risk premiums associated with that conflict. When asked to identify the primary driver of current gasoline prices, 46 percent of rural respondents pointed to U.S. government policy, while Republican respondents distributed responsibility among oil companies, Iranian government actions, and normal market fluctuations.

A large majority of all respondents, including 96 percent of Republicans, agreed that an affordability challenge exists for households. Partisan differences appeared in assessments of which party, if any, could address the issue. Seventy-one percent of Democrats said their party had solutions, compared with 59 percent of Republicans who said the same about their party. Twenty-six percent of Republicans and 17 percent of Democrats said neither party offered solutions. Among independents, 50 percent said neither party had solutions, 14 percent credited Democrats, and 10 percent credited Republicans.

Rural respondents were more likely than suburban or urban respondents to say neither party had solutions (41 percent versus 35 percent and 27 percent). Forty percent of rural adults also said they were living in “survival mode,” meaning a single unexpected expense could create financial distress, compared with 35 percent of urban adults and 27 percent of suburban adults.

Democratic candidates in competitive races have highlighted household costs in their campaigns. In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico released an advertisement showing him holding a bag of groceries and stating that many Texans feel they are “drowning” under the combined costs of groceries, gasoline, and healthcare. In Michigan, Senate candidate Abdul el-Sayed told an audience that his name was unrelated to gasoline or grocery prices. The poll did not measure the effect of individual campaign messages on voter sentiment.

The survey results reflect responses collected before the November midterm contests and capture attitudes at a single point in time. No weighting adjustments or margin-of-error figures were released with the topline data.