California Gubernatorial Primary: Polls Indicate Possible Republican Advancers Amid Democratic Field Split

By Staff Reporter

*Published: March 30, 2026*

California's 2026 gubernatorial primary, set for June 2 with mail-in ballots available starting May 5, uses a top-two advancement system where the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, proceed to the November general election. Recent polls from multiple firms show Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, both Republicans, polling near the top, potentially positioning them to advance if current trends hold.

California is a strongly Democratic state. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris received 59% of the vote compared to 38% for Donald Trump, according to official results. Despite this, the primary field includes 10 candidates, eight of whom are Democrats. Bianco and Hilton each poll around 20% in some surveys, capturing much of the Republican vote, while the Democratic candidates divide the larger share of Democratic support, with most polling in single digits or the low teens.

Polls vary. A California Democratic Party (CDP)-funded survey released last week by Chairman Rusty Hicks showed Hilton at 16%, Bianco at 15%, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 10%, billionaire Tom Steyer at 10%, and U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell at 10%, with other Democrats lower. A Berkeley IGS poll similarly indicated Bianco and Hilton leading due to Democratic vote-splitting. However, an Emerson College poll from March 2026 showed Swalwell at 17%, ahead of Hilton at 13% and Bianco at 11%, with 25% of voters undecided. Undecided voters range from 15% to 25% across surveys, often including Democratic-leaning respondents navigating the crowded field.

The three leading Democrats—Porter, Steyer, and Swalwell—are polling close to the Republicans in some surveys, but no Democrat is assured of advancing. Forecasters assess the general election as solidly Democratic. The Cook Political Report rates it "Solid Democratic," Sabato's Crystal Ball calls it "Safe Democratic," and Inside Elections agrees, noting no Republican has won statewide in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 reelection.

The absence of a clear successor to term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom has contributed to the fragmented field. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis initially pursued the governorship but switched to the state treasurer's race in August. U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla remained in Washington despite some party encouragement, and Vice President Harris declined to run. Other notable Democrats include former U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra, who served in House leadership, as California attorney general, and as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary under President Biden; and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was also state assembly speaker.

Despite more than a year of campaigning, no Democratic candidate has emerged as a clear frontrunner. In response, Hicks sent a public letter earlier this month urging lower-polling candidates to withdraw before the March 6 filing deadline to avoid appearing on ballots. None did. Hicks then released the CDP poll publicly, highlighting the tight race.

The situation evolved further with a planned debate hosted by the University of Southern California and KABC-TV Los Angeles, intended for top candidates based on a formula developed by a USC political science professor. The criteria considered polling, fundraising, and time in the race, qualifying Bianco, Hilton, Porter, Steyer, Swalwell, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. Mahan, a moderate who has attracted significant funding from tech companies and other business interests after entering late on January 29, made the cut partly due to strong early fundraising.

The four excluded candidates—Becerra, Villaraigosa, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former State Controller Betty Yee—are all people of color, while the six qualifiers are white. Excluded candidates and legislative leaders criticized the criteria as potentially disadvantaging non-white contenders, arguing that polling and fundraising thresholds could reflect systemic barriers in access to resources. They described the selection as racially exclusionary. Facing backlash, the debate sponsors canceled the event on the eve of its scheduling.

Hicks has noted that the firm conducting the CDP's surveys is led by Black and Latino partners. The top-polling candidates' demographics reflect broader patterns in self-funded campaigns; Steyer, for instance, has invested tens of millions of his own funds.

With voting six weeks away, party leaders continue efforts to consolidate support. Hicks has called for low-polling candidates to drop out by April 15, providing time to assess viability while allowing weeks for rallying behind fewer contenders. Some Democrats advocate endorsing two candidates: one from the center-left wing, such as Swalwell, who has support from figures like Sens. Ruben Gallego and Adam Schiff, or Becerra; and one from the progressive wing, such as Porter or Steyer, backed by groups like the Working Families Party, Rep. Ro Khanna, or Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Swalwell is viewed as moderate among the leaders, Porter as a progressive voice on economic issues from her House tenure, though she lost her 2024 Senate bid to Schiff. Steyer brings a progressive platform and relative novelty in state politics. California has had only white male governors historically, despite its diverse population, though Harris and Padilla might have led if they had entered.

Prominent figures like Harris, Newsom, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have positioned themselves as key opponents of Trump policies. Party consolidation could involve public endorsements to direct voters. Even if some candidates like Becerra or Yee persist, endorsements from leaders could shift dynamics.

California Democrats have taken actions against Republican-led changes nationally, such as redrawing congressional districts after Texas did so. Pelosi played a role in urging Biden's 2024 withdrawal post-debate. The gubernatorial race remains a focal point, with early polls volatile due to the split field in a state where Democrats hold a significant registration edge—about 46% Democrat, 24% Republican, and 23% independent as of recent filings.

Bianco, a conservative sheriff, and Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, have campaigned on platforms aligning with Trump-era policies, including tougher stances on crime and immigration. Bianco leads Riverside County, a region with conservative leanings, while Hilton emphasizes business-friendly reforms. Democratic candidates span ideologies: Steyer focuses on climate and inequality; Porter on consumer protections; Swalwell on national security; Becerra on health and labor; Villaraigosa on urban infrastructure; Thurmond on education equity; Yee on fiscal oversight; and others like Mahan on tech collaboration.

Fundraising underscores divides. Steyer's self-funding exceeds $50 million per filings, Mahan has drawn millions from Silicon Valley donors, while others rely on grassroots or PAC support. Voter turnout in primaries averages lower than generals, amplifying undecideds and splits.

Historical precedents inform expectations. In 2006, Schwarzenegger, a moderate Republican, won amid Democratic scandals. Since then, Democrats have dominated: Jerry Brown in 2010 and 2014, Newsom in 2018 and 2022. The top-two system, adopted in 2012 via Proposition 14, has led to same-party generals, like the 2021 recall where Newsom faced Republican Brian Dahle.

Current registration: Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1. Latino voters, 40% of the electorate, lean Democratic but show variability; Black voters solidly so. Asian Americans split more evenly.

Party officials monitor closely. Hicks' April 15 timeline aligns with ballot printing deadlines, enabling shifts without names removed. If two Democrats advance, the general pits them in a base-heavy contest; two Republicans would face a D+13 environment per 2024 margins.

Analysts note primary polls often overstate leaders due to name recognition, with late consolidations common. Emerson's Swalwell lead suggests potential Democratic dominance if unity emerges. CDP internals project 60% Democratic primary turnout.

The race tests party machinery in the post-Trump era. National Democrats watch, given California's 54 electoral votes and congressional delegation. A Republican general opponent would contrast Newsom's progressive record on housing, climate, and sanctuary policies.

As ballots mail May 5, candidates intensify ads. Bianco targets Central Valley; Hilton coastal suburbs; Democrats statewide. Debates now pivot to smaller forums or virtual.

In sum, while some polls show Republicans atop the primary, others and forecasters indicate Democratic advantages persist. Consolidation efforts continue to shape outcomes in this high-stakes contest.

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