Has Trump dragged the US into a forever war in Iran? | Mohamad Bazzi

US Military Operations Against Iran Intensify After Ceasefire Collapse

As US forces began military strikes on Iranian targets in late February, President Donald Trump stated that operations would conclude rapidly. Administration officials rejected characterizations that the actions violated earlier campaign statements against initiating new conflicts. In early March, Trump said he would accept only unconditional surrender from Iran’s government and called for the removal of the leadership that took power after the 1979 revolution.

Trump had stated during his November 2024 election victory speech that he would not start wars. A ceasefire reached in early April later produced a memorandum of understanding in mid-June that addressed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments prior to its closure during the fighting. The memorandum extended the ceasefire for 60 days but left unresolved questions on Iran’s nuclear program and control of the strait. Trump described the interim agreement as achieving core objectives, though differing interpretations by each side contributed to its breakdown within weeks.

Following the collapse, Iranian forces struck oil tankers transiting the southern corridor of the strait near Oman. US forces conducted repeated airstrikes on Iranian command centers, missile and drone sites, air defense systems, and communications infrastructure. Additional strikes targeted bridges in southern Iran. Trump also indicated possible strikes on Iranian power plants and other infrastructure. Iranian missile and drone attacks hit US military facilities in the region, and Tehran warned of further strikes on energy facilities in Gulf states. The United States reinstated restrictions on Iranian shipping, reducing traffic through the strait. Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel.

On Friday, Iranian ballistic missiles struck a US airbase in Jordan, killing two American service members, with a third reported missing. The Pentagon stated that another service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq. Since the start of operations, 17 US service members have been killed and approximately 430 wounded. Trump had previously said that attacks resulting in US deaths would prompt major retaliation.

Iran’s government replaced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed along with more than 30 other senior officials in joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28. Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as the new supreme leader with support from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. Iranian officials have used control of the Strait of Hormuz to limit energy shipments, affecting global markets. Tehran has also indicated it could encourage allied Houthi forces in Yemen to expand disruptions in the Red Sea, where shipping had already been rerouted after earlier attacks on vessels. On Monday, Houthi forces announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian ports, a route used by Saudi oil exports seeking to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

These developments have contributed to higher energy prices and concerns about broader economic effects. Negotiations between the parties have fluctuated in scope, with no comprehensive agreement reached on nuclear limits or maritime access. Iranian leadership has retained its position despite the loss of senior figures and sustained military pressure from US and Israeli forces.

The conflict has involved repeated cycles of strikes and counterstrikes. US operations have included naval measures to restrict Iranian shipping, while Iranian responses have targeted military sites and threatened energy infrastructure in neighboring countries. Both sides have maintained that their actions respond to prior moves by the other.