Thursday briefing: Thanks to an erratic Trump, peace in Ukraine is still far away

Thursday briefing: US proposes energy ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine conflict as talks continue

Good morning. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.” Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials had been consulted in advance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the proposal was “news to me” but added that Ukraine was “ready and we will accept it.” Russian forces subsequently struck Ukrainian power facilities.

This sequence reflects the pattern of recent diplomatic exchanges involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. Fighting has continued, and European governments have reaffirmed support for Ukraine. UK Levelling Up Secretary Andy Burnham met Zelenskyy in London yesterday and stated that Britain would increase its assistance while urging other countries to do the same.

Negotiations have followed established patterns for ending armed conflicts. Diplomats seek overlapping interests that could produce a settlement both parties view as preferable to continued fighting. For today’s First Edition, I spoke with former British ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies, now senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, about current efforts. First, the main headlines.

Five big stories

UK | Author Sally Rooney has stated she will withdraw her books from UK sale in response to the proscription of Palestine Action.

Gaza | Israel has declined to approve a proposed military facility linked to a US-backed reconstruction plan in Gaza, according to reporting by the Guardian.

EU | Scotland Secretary Ian Murray said Britain could gain improved trade access with the EU even if that required limits on independent trade negotiations.

Ukraine | Ukrainian forces reported reduced access to Starlink terminals after the US administration pressed for an immediate halt to long-range strikes on Russian energy targets.

Vaccine | Guinea-Bissau’s health minister said the country has not authorised a US-funded hepatitis B study involving newborns.

In depth: Conditions for a settlement

Ukrainian emergency teams responded to a Russian strike on a residential building in Kharkiv. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, multiple rounds of talks in Belarus, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland have not produced a ceasefire or peace agreement.

Gould-Davies described the standard requirements for any agreement. “A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests to end the fighting than to continue,” he said. The task is to identify an overlap where each party accepts compromises because continued combat appears worse.

He stated that Russia has shown no interest in a ceasefire. Ukraine has repeatedly offered an unconditional halt to fighting. Russian officials have instead described their objective as a conclusive resolution that would leave Ukraine substantially weakened and under Russian dominance. Gould-Davies noted that Ukraine has rejected that outcome.

Recent US-Russia-Ukraine exchanges

Since Trump’s return to office, communications between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have consisted largely of each side seeking to persuade the White House that the other bears responsibility for the absence of an agreement. Gould-Davies characterised these exchanges as parallel messaging efforts rather than joint negotiations.

Ukraine’s position remains an unconditional ceasefire. Russia’s public statements continue to tie any end to hostilities to broader political and territorial conditions.

US policy and diplomatic channels

US officials met European counterparts in Miami last week. Gould-Davies described the challenge of working with an administration that has taken unilateral steps without prior coordination. Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement occurred without advance notice to either capital and had no agreed basis, he said.

The administration has taken several actions affecting Ukraine’s military capabilities. Zelenskyy stated that access to military-grade Starlink services had been restricted, limiting drone operations and air defence coordination. The US has also sanctioned certain Russian oil companies and supported Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. At the same time, the administration has limited some weapons supplies and paused aspects of intelligence sharing.

Gould-Davies said the overall approach has combined pressure on Ukraine with efforts to reach understandings with Russia.

Energy imports and sanctions

Trump announced plans to import Russian diesel to address US fuel prices. European governments and a bipartisan group of US senators expressed concern. Legal questions remain about whether such imports would comply with existing sanctions statutes, and the volumes under discussion are small relative to US consumption.

Gould-Davies said some diplomats view the diesel proposal as one element of a broader shift. He suggested the administration might seek Russian assistance in easing restrictions on oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for reduced US sanctions on Russia and diminished support for Ukraine. He presented the idea as one possible interpretation rather than confirmed policy.

Back-channel communications

Separate diplomatic contacts continue outside public view. Gould-Davies expressed scepticism that these channels will alter Russia’s position, citing the absence of evidence that Moscow intends to change its objectives. He warned that prolonged informal talks could sustain unrealistic expectations of an imminent settlement.

European governments have increased direct engagement with US officials. Gould-Davies described coordinated visits to Washington aimed at maintaining existing alliance structures. He noted that the administration contains officials with differing private assessments of Russia policy, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who travelled to Moscow earlier this year.

Western diplomats continue to monitor internal administration views, a process Gould-Davies compared to traditional Kremlinology. The goal remains identifying which advisers hold influence on any given issue.

Additional coverage

How We Win, a Guardian newsletter series, features contributions on US politics from writers including Naomi Klein, Mehdi Hasan, and Bernie Sanders. Robert Reich’s introductory essay is available on the site.

A retrospective on the television series Girls marks the announcement of a five-episode revival. Coverage appears in the newsletters section.

The Long Wave newsletter examines language learning and cultural connection in a column by Micha Frazer-Carroll.

The Wildlife Photographer of the Year exhibition is now open; selected images, including an entry by James Lewin, are published online.

A travel feature lists heated outdoor swimming pools operating through the winter months in Britain.

Sport

Paris Saint-Germain defeated Manchester City 4-2 in the Champions League. Liverpool won 6-3 against Lask, with Bradley Barcola scoring a hat-trick. Aston Villa beat Fenerbahce 6-0.

Fifa council members are scheduled to question President Gianni Infantino on Thursday regarding a cancelled World Cup media rights plan, the Folarin Balogun matter, and the award of a peace prize to Donald Trump.

Formula One has reached a ten-year agreement with Rwanda for a race on a new circuit, with the first event planned for the early 2030s.

Front pages

The Guardian leads with Zelenskyy’s statement attributing reduced protection from Russian attacks to US decisions on Starlink. The Times reports Zelenskyy warning of increased civilian risk following changes in US policy. Other national papers cover domestic economic figures, European trade discussions, and the Champions League results.

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