Why Democrats Would Probably Come Out Ahead if Platner Dropped Out - …

Maine Senate Race Shows Shifts in Support for Graham Platner Ahead of Potential Withdrawal

Graham Platner has seen support from political allies diminish rapidly in the Maine Senate race. Credit...Sophie Park for The New York Times

Graham Platner is considering whether to continue his candidacy in the Maine Senate race after facing a rape allegation. He has denied the allegation and stated that he is taking time to reflect on the best path forward.

A New York Times/Siena poll conducted last week found that 30 percent of Platner’s supporters indicated his prior controversies were prompting them to reconsider their support. The same poll showed Platner leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins by two percentage points among likely voters. A majority of likely voters expressed an unfavorable view of Platner, and a separate majority expressed an unfavorable view of Collins.

If Platner withdraws by next Monday, the Maine Democratic Party would select a replacement nominee by July 27. Party officials have discussed options including a convention or statewide caucus. Several potential replacements have limited statewide recognition.

The poll recorded that likely voters preferred Democratic control of the Senate over Republican control by 12 points. Collins secured re-election in 2020 by nine points, her smallest margin in multiple campaigns. In the recent poll, clear majorities described Collins as moderate, moral, experienced, and effective. Among women aged 65 and older, Collins led by three points, while the same group reported supporting Kamala Harris by 28 points in the 2024 presidential election.

White voters without a college degree supported Collins over Platner by 59 percent to 36 percent. Thirty-five percent of those voters held a favorable view of Platner, and two-thirds stated that he would oppose President Trump too much.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters described the Democratic Party as too far to the left, compared with 45 percent who applied that description to Platner. The poll did not isolate ideology as the primary factor distinguishing voter reactions to the candidates.

Collins has won multiple elections in a state that has leaned Democratic in presidential voting in recent cycles. Her 2020 margin was narrower than previous victories. The poll found her support had continued to decline in the intervening years.

Platner’s profile emphasized working-class and progressive positions. The poll showed limited evidence that these positions produced measurable gains among blue-collar voters relative to Collins. Maine voters have supported Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections, though Senate results have varied.

The article continues with additional detail on the same poll crosstabs. Among respondents who backed Harris in 2024, Collins still drew measurable support from older women and from those who viewed her record as moderate. Platner’s favorability remained below 50 percent overall even before the most recent allegation.

Further breakdowns indicated that voters who described themselves as concerned about character issues were more likely to express reservations about Platner. The same respondents assigned higher marks to Collins on experience and effectiveness. These patterns held across multiple demographic slices reported by the poll.

Party strategists have noted that any replacement candidate would enter the race with different name recognition and different associations than Platner. Historical midterm patterns show that the party out of power often performs better in Senate contests, though individual candidate factors have altered outcomes in specific states.

The Times/Siena survey sampled likely voters in Maine and included questions on favorability, ideology, and past voting behavior. Results were weighted to match known population parameters. The poll was fielded prior to the rape allegation.

Collins has maintained a record of winning re-election in Maine despite the state’s partisan lean in national contests. Her margins narrowed over successive cycles. Platner entered the race emphasizing economic populism and opposition to certain foreign policy positions.

Voter responses in the poll showed that a plurality viewed the broader Democratic Party as positioned too far left, at a rate slightly higher than the share applying that label to Platner individually. This distribution suggests that candidate-specific factors beyond general party ideology influenced measured preferences.

If the nomination process produces a different Democratic candidate, subsequent polling would be required to assess any change in the race dynamics. Current data reflect conditions with Platner as the nominee.

Nate Cohn is the chief political analyst for The New York Times and covers elections, public opinion, demographics, and polling.