These swing voters are adding high gas prices into their political calculations

Swing Voters in Key States Describe Effects of Elevated Gasoline Prices

Swing Shift voters, a group of swing voters in swing states who NPR is routinely speaking with through the next several months. Clockwise from top left: Lee from Nevada, Michelle from Michigan, Wally from Georgia, Jason from North Carolina, Evan from Wisconsin, Gerald from Georgia, Colleen, John and Theresa from Pennsylvania.

Illustrations by Tara Anand

When Colleen in Pennsylvania went to fill up her tank, it was $4.37 a gallon. She said she was considering adjustments to household spending to cover transportation costs. "Telling my kiddos, 'we have to cut back on some stuff so that we can pay to put gas in the car and get from point A to point B,'" she said in a voice memo sent to NPR.

Colleen is one of about a dozen voters participating in Swing Shift, a project from NPR that will regularly check in with swing voters from swing states. The participants have all voted for candidates from both parties over the years and aren't using their full names so they can speak more freely about politics and, in this case, gas prices, without fear of personal or professional repercussions. Colleen voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and Trump in 2020. In her voice memo, she said she does not perceive sufficient attention from political leaders to the effects of current gasoline prices. "I guess their pockets are deeper than mine," said Colleen. "Maybe I should start thinking more about politics as I fill up."

Voters like Colleen have seen slight relief in recent days as gas prices have fallen slightly. But a gallon of regular unleaded is still well over a dollar more than it was this time last year. That could have political consequences in the midterm elections in the fall. It is already affecting the way voters in NPR's Swing Shift project are managing expenses. John in Philadelphia says he's paying about $4.25 a gallon, a big jump from just a couple months ago. "How am I feeling about it? Not good," he said. "High gas prices lead to high grocery prices and other prices."

He tends to vote Republican and supported Trump in 2024 after swinging to Democrats in 2020. In his voice memo, John mentioned his wife recently had dinner out with friends at a chain restaurant. Her pasta entree was $30. "It's unbelievably expensive to do anything," he said.

Lee lives in Nevada, where gas prices are even higher. "I hear people on the East Coast and the Midwest paying $3 a gallon when I am paying $5.50 for the same gas," he said in a lengthy voice memo detailing his thoughts on the price of gas. He is upset that gas prices are so much higher in western states and attributes the difference to policy decisions by Democrats. He voted for former President Joe Biden in 2020 but switched to President Trump in 2024.

Lee noted that President Trump initiated the conflict with Iran. "I mean, yeah, technically he's the one who started the [Iran] war, so ultimately you could blame him, but this war is needed," Lee said of Trump. In a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, more than 60 percent of respondents blamed President Trump for the current increase in gas prices. Lee stated he accepts that connection but does not assign fault for the outcome. "It's time we finally take care of Iran, get them handled and if we have to deal with the high gas prices for a couple months, so be it," said Lee. He also noted that gas prices were actually higher four years ago when Biden was in office. Lee was angrier then, when the national average for regular unleaded peaked just above $5 a gallon. He attributed that earlier increase to Biden's energy policies.

Gas prices are displayed at a station on May 21 in Rolling Meadows, Illinois. According to AAA, the national average gas price for regular gas is $4.56 per gallon, the highest in four years and up 54 cents from last month.

Scott Olson/Getty Images

Jason in North Carolina, another Swing Shift participant, remembers that price spike too, though in his voice memo he recalled Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as the spark that drove up prices. Given that context, "I don't feel all that bad about it," Jason said of the $3.67 per gallon he paid in early May.

Earlier this month, gas prices spiked in the Midwest. It was the result of a combination of problems with refinery operations regionally and high global oil prices. That's when Michelle in Michigan went to fill up her tank. "It was $4.96 cents per gallon. Wow," Michelle said. This was for regular unleaded at one of the cheapest stations around. She swung to Trump in 2024 and is living on a fixed income. "I feel very frustrated and kind of shocked when I think about it," she said, adding that everyone she spoke to at the gas station felt the same way. "That was a conversation for sure at the gas station."

Evan in Wisconsin described similar calculations. He said he attributes part of the price movement to international supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and part to seasonal refinery maintenance schedules. "The numbers move with events overseas and with what the refineries are doing here," Evan said. He noted he has reduced nonessential driving but has not altered his overall view of the administration's foreign policy approach.

For Theresa, from outside of Pittsburgh, it was $4.69. "For the cheap gas," she said. She's been shopping around for the best gas prices, using apps to look for discounts. She voted for Trump in 2024 and says this is going to affect her vote in November. "I'm just really going to watch and look at these candidates more carefully to see who I feel is going to be more responsive to our needs and to be able to help out the middle class, because right now we are suffering," Theresa said. She's already worrying about how much fuel oil will cost this winter when she'll need it to heat her home. That too is tied to the global price of oil.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found 81 percent of respondents said current gas prices are a strain on their household budgets. "Listen, I ain't gonna lie," said Gerald in Georgia. "This gas is kicking my butt." Especially since his beloved dually pickup truck runs on diesel fuel, which is even more expensive. But he voted for Trump in 2024 after a lifetime of backing Democrats and still trusts that the president has a plan. "You know it is my prediction that once the mission is complete, prices will be much much lower," Gerald said, referring to the war. "Fingers crossed." Like Theresa, he's using apps and cutting back where he can.

Wally, also in Georgia, a fellow Biden to Trump voter, noticed gas prices tick down a little this week, but it was already too late for his Memorial Day weekend plans. "I just ended up staying at home, hanging out in the back yard, enjoying some quiet time," said Wally. "No fill ups, no state to state trips, just keeping the spend to as much of a minimum as possible."