Shippers Consider Alternative Routes Amid Elevated Air Cargo Costs and Middle East Shipping Constraints

By Lisa Baertlein and Allison Lampert

*April 10, 2026*

Shippers are exploring unconventional transport routes in response to elevated jet fuel prices and disruptions in key Middle East waterways, including restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. These issues stem from a conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Tehran and other Iranian cities, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with measures including the Hormuz restrictions, and a recent ceasefire between Iran and the United States is not expected to provide immediate relief.

Freight forwarders report that clients previously routing electronics and other consumer goods from Asia to Europe via Middle East hubs are now shipping via Los Angeles by sea and air to access lower rates, according to one U.S. freight forwarder.

"It's a lot faster than going by ocean around the southern tip of Africa, but much cheaper than direct air," said Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport.

Air cargo costs have increased due to strong demand and higher jet fuel prices following the onset of the Hormuz restrictions. According to WorldACD Market Data, air cargo capacity to the Middle East has declined by more than 50% year-over-year in the past two weeks, though independent verification of this figure was not available.

Flexport reported that long-term contract air cargo rates from Vietnam to Europe have nearly doubled to $6.27 per kilogram compared with levels before the conflict began, without providing pre-conflict baseline data for verification.

In comparison, air cargo rates from Los Angeles to Paris have risen by only 8%, as airlines have added passenger flights amid strong demand, increasing belly-hold cargo capacity, Flexport data shows.

"We could see a bump if trade disruptions persist in the Middle East," said Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, part of the busiest U.S. seaport complex in Los Angeles.

Global air cargo capacity, previously forecasted to grow by 5.5% this year, has instead declined by 1% so far due to the conflict, according to Marco Bloemen, managing director of consulting firm Aevean.

The trajectory for the year will partly depend on the resumption of widebody passenger aircraft operations by major Gulf carriers, which provide about half of the region's air cargo capacity, Bloemen said.

A delayed rebound in Gulf tourism after fighting ceases could prompt carriers to reduce passenger flights, affecting cargo belly space, said Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at transportation pricing platform Xeneta.

"Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways operate some of the world's most important air freight networks," van de Wouw said.

British Airways announced on Thursday it would reduce flights to the Middle East upon resumption, indicating that ongoing regional tensions may suppress demand.

Dedicated cargo operators like UPS continue regional services using contingency plans, as their pilots are not currently flying to hubs such as Dubai.

Third-party charter aircraft have filled some gaps, but jet fuel supplies are projected to remain constrained and expensive for months.

"The major issue for everyone is the massive hike in fuel prices," said Dan Morgan-Evans, group cargo director at Air Charter Service.

One client of AIT Worldwide Logistics paid five to six times more to transport oil drilling equipment to Saudi Arabia by air and truck after its planned ocean shipment from Houston was canceled due to conflict-related disruptions, according to Ryan Carter, the company's executive vice president for the Americas.

Nevertheless, many firms indicate they must incur the added air shipping costs to ensure delivery.

"Sometimes the cargo just has to move," Morgan-Evans said.

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