US Vice President Vance to Lead Renewed Iran Negotiations Amid Fragile Ceasefire

By The Intercept Briefing Staff

*Published: 2026-04-10T10:00:00+00:00*

Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to lead renewed negotiations with Iran this weekend, following a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. The agreement, brokered by Pakistan, came after a series of developments in a conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when U.S. and Israeli forces conducted strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The U.S. and Israel cited Iran's advancing nuclear program and threats from Iranian proxies as the reasons for the operation, which aimed to neutralize perceived threats and pursue regime change objectives.

The week's events included a social media post from President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning, in which he stated, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Trump urged Iran to reach a deal with the U.S. and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET that day. Shortly before the deadline, Trump announced on social media that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan. He indicated that the U.S. had received a 10-point plan from Iran to initiate negotiations toward a durable resolution, and Iran stated it would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ceasefire faced immediate challenges. Residual attacks were reported, including Iranian claims of Israeli strikes on energy infrastructure and Emirati reports of Iranian drone and missile strikes. U.S. bombing operations in Iran ceased, according to available accounts. A significant escalation occurred when Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon, killing more than 300 people the day after the ceasefire announcement, per Lebanese reports. Israeli officials stated that the ceasefire applied only to direct U.S.-Iran hostilities and did not encompass the separate ongoing conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. On April 9, 2026, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel—its first such attack since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire—forcing over 60,000 Israelis to seek shelter and declaring the action a response to "Israeli-American aggression."

The conflict has resulted in casualties on multiple sides, including 13 U.S. service members: six killed in a refueling crash over Iraq and seven in combat operations.

Details of Iran's 10-point plan remain partially undisclosed, but Narges Bajoghli, an associate professor of anthropology and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, outlined key Iranian priorities in an interview with The Intercept Briefing. "One is that Iran is asking for non-aggression from the United States into the future," Bajoghli said. "It won’t take the United States’s word for it. It’s already been burned by the U.S. multiple times." She added that sanctions relief is another major demand, noting Iran's opposition to returning to pre-war sanctions levels. Bajoghli emphasized Iran's focus on "its sovereignty and independence."

Bajoghli discussed the broader implications on The Intercept Briefing podcast, hosted by senior editor Ali Gharib. She argued that the war demonstrated Iran's deterrence capabilities stem from its control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global oil and gas trade passes, rather than a nuclear weapon. "Iran’s real deterrence actually doesn’t come from a potential nuclear bomb, but it comes from the ability to be able to stop or regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," she said.

The podcast episode also addressed the regional context. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group, entered the conflict to support Iran, launching attacks on Israel amid the escalation. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have been part of a broader campaign that intensified after October 7, 2023, events, with Israel citing Hezbollah rocket fire and proxy threats as justifications. U.S. officials have provided munitions support to Israel, including bombs used in Lebanese operations, while maintaining that such actions are distinct from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced the ceasefire request via a tweet, which the New York Times reported had been pre-approved by the Trump administration. The announcement referenced Lebanon, but Israel clarified that the agreement excluded its front with Hezbollah. Vice President Vance aligned with this position, and he is set to travel to Pakistan for talks alongside Steve Witkoff, who participated in earlier Iran discussions, and Jared Kushner, a Trump advisor with close ties to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but no formal administration role.

U.S. sanctions on Iran, in place since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and intensified under Trump's first term "maximum pressure" campaign around 2018, target Iran's nuclear program among other issues. The Trump administration has indicated that the 10-point plan includes commitments on nuclear activities, though this was not detailed in Iran's public readout. A Financial Times report cited a diplomat describing a version of the plan received by negotiators.

The negotiations occur against a backdrop of Democratic criticism in the U.S., with some lawmakers discussing the 25th Amendment or impeachment proceedings in response to Trump's rhetoric and policy decisions. Checks and balances in U.S. institutions have been invoked, though their effectiveness remains debated.

Expert Analysis on the Ceasefire and Path Forward

In a podcast conversation recorded on Wednesday morning—hours after the ceasefire announcement—Gharib spoke with Bajoghli, author of "Iran Reframed," "How Sanctions Work in Iran," and the forthcoming "Weapons Against Humanity," which examines the Middle East's role in the global weapons industry.

Gharib recapped the timeline: Trump's Tuesday morning post set a deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the ceasefire announcement about 90 minutes prior. Bajoghli highlighted potential Chinese involvement in the Pakistan-mediated talks, as reported, to guarantee U.S. non-aggression pledges. She stressed that Iran views past U.S. withdrawals, such as from the 2015 nuclear deal, as precedents for distrust.

On sanctions, Bajoghli noted that any return to pre-war levels—exacerbated by measures crippling Iran's economy—would be unacceptable to Tehran. The U.S. has framed its demands around curbing Iran's nuclear advancements, which Israeli and U.S. officials describe as an existential threat, particularly after intelligence assessments of weaponization progress.

Bajoghli pointed to Iran's Strait of Hormuz leverage as a pivotal factor in forcing the ceasefire. "In many ways, what actually has potentially led to this ceasefire is the fact that Iran is able to create a chokehold over 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas trade," she said. "That is an extremely powerful weapon that they have in their hands and in many ways can force shifts to happen geopolitically."

The discussion touched on Israeli-Lebanese dynamics. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon on Wednesday killed over 200 people in a single day, according to Lebanese health authorities, contributing to higher totals from ongoing operations. Hezbollah's rocket fire on April 9 followed these strikes, with the group stating it would continue responses. Israel maintains that its actions target Hezbollah infrastructure used to support Iran, and U.S. officials have described the Lebanon theater as separate from direct U.S.-Iran engagements.

Co-host Akela Lacy, a senior politics reporter at The Intercept, raised questions about U.S. institutional responses to the conflict's escalation. Democrats have publicly called for constraints on executive war powers, referencing past debates over similar authorizations.

Vance's role drew scrutiny. While in Hungary supporting Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of elections, Vance was profiled in the New York Times as having urged restraint on Iran policy. Critics question the depth of his opposition, given his ultimate alignment with administration decisions. Israeli officials have welcomed Vance's involvement, citing shared security concerns over Iran's proxies.

U.S. casualties underscore the conflict's toll: the seven service members killed in direct action and six in the Iraq crash highlight risks to American forces. Iranian reports detail hundreds of civilian and military deaths from U.S. and Israeli strikes, while proxy engagements have caused Israeli losses, including from Hezbollah rockets displacing communities in northern Israel.

Regional and Domestic Reactions

The ceasefire's fragility stems partly from cross-border actions. Emirati statements noted continued Iranian strikes post-announcement, while Iran accused Israel of targeting its assets. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reopened temporarily but faced disruptions, impacting global energy markets.

Israel's campaign in Lebanon, which has razed areas in the south, is framed by Jerusalem as necessary to degrade Hezbollah capabilities built up since 2023 escalations. Hezbollah leaders have vowed sustained resistance, tying their efforts to Iran's defense. U.S. arms transfers, including precision-guided munitions, have supported these operations, with Pentagon officials emphasizing alliance commitments.

Bajoghli's analysis underscores Iran's strategic calculus: proxy networks and maritime control provide leverage beyond nuclear pursuits. U.S. negotiators, per administration statements, seek verifiable nuclear limits, full proxy stand-downs, and Strait guarantees.

Vance's delegation—including Witkoff, who engaged Iran pre-war, and Kushner, influential in prior Middle East deals—aims to build on the 10-point framework. Netanyahu's office has stressed that any deal must address proxy threats, including Hezbollah, to prevent future disruptions.

Domestic U.S. discourse reflects polarization. Trump's "madman theory"—evoking unpredictable deterrence—has been debated, with supporters crediting it for the ceasefire and critics warning of recklessness. Vance's positioning as a moderating voice offers cautious optimism amid limited alternatives.

As talks proceed, the exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire remains contentious. Hezbollah's April 9 rockets signal ongoing volatility, potentially complicating durable peace. With 20 percent of global oil at stake, geopolitical stakes remain high.

The full podcast episode, featuring Gharib, Lacy, and Bajoghli, is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and other platforms.

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