Trump's Low Approval Ratings Persist Amid Immigration Enforcement, Iran Conflict, and 2026 Election Debates

Recent polls indicate that former President Donald Trump's approval ratings during his second term remain below 40 percent. A January Pew Research Center poll found that 50 percent of respondents viewed his actions in office as worse than expected, while 27 percent supported “all or most” of his policies. Polls from February and March showed an average of 58 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy, with 59 percent in a separate poll stating the economy is getting worse.

Trump has historically polled higher on immigration issues compared to others. However, following Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) enforcement surges in cities including Minneapolis and Chicago—operations such as Operation Metro Surge in January 2026 that targeted undocumented immigrants with criminal records, resulting in arrests of individuals including murderers and drug traffickers—49 percent of poll respondents strongly disapproved of his immigration handling. Half of respondents, including a majority of independents, supported abolishing ICE entirely.

Presidents often receive broad support for military actions. A CBS poll showed 40 percent of Americans supporting U.S. military operations against Iran, lower than support for some past major conflicts. Only 7 percent backed sending ground troops, though a majority of Republican respondents supported deploying special forces but not a full invasion. The same poll found 92 percent prioritizing a quick end to the conflict and 68 percent saying Trump had not clearly explained U.S. goals.

The U.S. military action against Iran has contributed to a 32 percent rise in gas prices since the operation began, with oil prices continuing to increase. Prolonged conflict could raise costs for other goods exponentially. The action has also delayed fertilizer deliveries and increased prices in the U.S. and Asia, potentially affecting farmers and grocery prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture had already forecasted faster grocery price rises for the year compared to 2024 or 2025.

As the 2026 midterm election cycle progresses, forecasts suggest Democrats have a strong chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives. Current Trump policies may not boost Republican popularity by November, according to analysts. A Democratic House majority would limit their ability to pass legislation but could enhance leverage in budget talks, increase subpoena powers over Trump administration officials, facilitate release of more Jeffrey Epstein-related files, and revive impeachment discussions—though Senate conviction remains unlikely given its composition.

Trump and Republicans face questions about maintaining congressional control ahead of the election. Concerns have arisen over potential strategies, though federal officials have denied some speculated tactics.

Voter Access Debates Intensify

Trump has long claimed the 2020 election was lost due to voter fraud, assertions that multiple investigations, including state audits and court reviews, found unsubstantiated. He raised similar claims despite winning in 2024. A PRRI poll indicates Trump maintains 81 percent favorability among Republicans, contrasting with his overall low ratings.

Republicans, including Trump allies in Congress, have advanced voting restrictions. The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, currently facing a Senate filibuster, proposes stricter ID requirements for voter registration and ballot casting, potentially including passports or birth certificates, along with more frequent voter roll purges. Proponents, including the Trump administration, describe it as an election integrity measure. Critics argue it could hinder eligible voters.

Recent Supreme Court oral arguments suggested some conservative justices may support limits on mail-in voting. This aligns with Republican efforts dating back to at least 2000, when voting access was contested in the Bush v. Gore case, and post-2020 challenges.

Federal involvement in elections has also drawn scrutiny. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appointed Heather Honey, a private investigator known for promoting 2020 election fraud theories in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, as deputy assistant secretary for election integrity—a new position created in Trump's second term. In March 2025, Honey told right-wing activists the administration was considering a “national emergency” declaration before the 2026 election to assume direct control from state and local authorities. No public details on such a plan have emerged, and DHS has not confirmed it.

On February 25, 2026, Honey stated: “Any suggestion that ICE is going to be present at polling places is simply disinformation. There will be no ICE presence at polling locations.” This addressed concerns about federal law enforcement intimidating voters.

The federal government is suing over a dozen states to obtain voter files. In Minnesota, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi requested a voter list from state officials as a condition for scaling back ICE operations in Minneapolis, before protests prompted reductions.

In January, the FBI, accompanied by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, seized 2020 ballots from Fulton County, Georgia. These ballots, from Atlanta, had been reexamined at least three times in prior legal proceedings. The action stemmed from specific fraud allegations, though those claims remain disputed. Separately, a California Republican sheriff running for governor seized 650,000 ballots from a 2025 election, citing fraud investigations despite a multi-million-vote margin.

Trump's focus on voter fraud, often citing undocumented voters, persists. ICE, now with a budget exceeding all other federal law enforcement agencies combined, has conducted urban operations perceived as targeting politically opposed areas, with documented instances of civil rights issues, shootings, and fatalities.

Analysts note that while Republican support for Trump remains high among their base, broader unpopularity could influence turnout. Federal actions on elections have sparked debate, but officials deny plans for widespread intervention. No evidence has publicly confirmed intentions to declare a national voting emergency or deploy law enforcement to alter results.

The 2026 midterms will test these dynamics. Democrats aim to capitalize on economic and policy dissatisfaction, while Republicans emphasize security and integrity measures. Outcomes depend on voter participation, court rulings, and legislative progress.

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