Hormuz Restrictions Persist After Ceasefire, Keeping Oil Prices Elevated
Cover image from foxnews.com, which was analyzed for this article
Shipping and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted despite the US-Iran ceasefire, with Iran halting traffic and imposing tolls. Analysts predict energy prices will take months to normalize, exacerbating global supply chain issues. Trump accused Iran of failing to comply, threatening trade and markets.
PoliticalOS
Friday, April 10, 2026 — Business
The US-Iran ceasefire has not restored normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz because the two sides interpret the 'safe passage' commitment differently, with Iran enforcing coordination, tolls and linkage to Lebanon while the US demands immediate unrestricted access. This gap, combined with shipping industry caution over risks and insurance, means elevated energy prices and supply chain delays could persist for months regardless of Saturday's talks in Pakistan. The single most important reality is that paper agreements have not yet translated into functional maritime traffic, keeping global markets on edge.
What outlets missed
Most coverage downplayed or omitted the explicit terms of Iran's 10-point proposal incorporated into the ceasefire, which requires Hormuz reopening "in coordination with Iran's armed forces" and includes tolls to compensate for war damage to Iranian infrastructure. This context reframes limited traffic not as simple bad-faith closure but as partial implementation of agreed Iranian oversight, a distinction few outlets highlighted despite citing the low vessel counts. Initial sharp drops in oil prices right after the announcement, with Brent falling below $95 before rebounding, received little attention even though they demonstrated markets initially pricing in relief. Reports also underplayed the human element of nearly 20,000 commercial mariners stranded for weeks under International Maritime Organization tracking, as well as the precise diversion costs of 25 percent higher voyage expenses via alternate Gulf ports.
Global supply chains and household energy bills remain under pressure as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stays far below normal levels more than a week after the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire. The narrow waterway, which carries one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, typically sees 120 to 140 vessels daily. Since the truce took effect, daily transits have numbered between three and 11 ships, according to data compiled by Kpler, Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward AI. No oil tankers have made the passage in recent days. A backlog of more than 3,200 vessels has formed, including roughly 600 to 800 tankers, leaving nearly 20,000 mariners idled. Insurance premiums for war-risk coverage have surged, and many operators cite uncertainty over mines, missiles or drones as reasons to stay clear.
The central unresolved question is whether the ceasefire's requirement for "safe passage" means immediate, unrestricted access or a managed reopening coordinated with Iranian forces. The agreement, mediated by Pakistan and announced Tuesday, paused direct U.S.-Iran fighting that began with strikes on February 28. It explicitly tied the truce to reopening the strait. Iran released a 10-point proposal that includes maintaining oversight of the waterway, charging fees to fund reconstruction of bombed infrastructure, lifting sanctions and extending protections to its regional allies including Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States and Israel maintain that Lebanon operations fall outside the deal. Iranian state media linked continued restrictions to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which included some of the heaviest attacks of the parallel conflict on Wednesday. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran was doing "a very poor job, dishonorable some would say" of allowing oil through the strait. He warned against any tolls and said oil would flow "with or without the help of Iran."