Hormuz Traffic Stalls Post-Ceasefire as US and Iran Trade Blame Over Tolls and Control

Global energy markets face months of volatility as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a fraction of normal volumes even after a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect this week. The narrow waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. A backlog of more than 600 vessels, including hundreds of tankers, has formed in the Persian Gulf, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence and Kpler data. Insurance rates have surged. Alternative routes around Africa add two weeks and 25 percent to costs. Air cargo rates from Asia to Europe have doubled on some lanes, per Flexport and WorldACD figures, as shippers scramble for passenger belly space or reroute via Los Angeles.

The central unresolved question is whether Iran will permit unrestricted commercial traffic under the truce terms before the pause expires, or whether demands for coordination with its forces and disputed tolls will keep the channel effectively closed. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday, stating it required the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the strait. By Thursday he posted on Truth Social that Iran was doing "a very poor job, dishonorable some would say" of complying. Iranian officials countered that the agreement, which incorporates a 10-point Iranian proposal mediated by Pakistan, requires coordination with Iran's armed forces to guarantee security and allows for fees to offset war damage. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that the United States must restrain Israeli strikes on Lebanon or the deal collapses. Those strikes continued Wednesday, killing hundreds according to Lebanese officials, though both Washington and Jerusalem maintain Lebanon falls outside the truce.

Traffic numbers tell the story in stark terms. Before the February 28 outbreak of direct U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, 120 to 140 vessels passed daily. In the first 24 hours after the ceasefire, trackers recorded between five and 11 transits, mostly dry bulk carriers and a few Iranian-flagged ships using corridors near Larak Island rather than standard lanes. Kpler analyst Matt Smith said no oil tankers had moved in recent days. Ana Subasic, another Kpler analyst, projected safe capacity at 10 to 15 passages daily even if the truce holds, before accounting for toll disputes. Windward maritime data showed some vessels switching off tracking systems. The International Maritime Organization estimates nearly 20,000 mariners remain stranded.

Iran has signaled it will charge fees, with reports citing figures from $1 per barrel paid in cryptocurrency to $2 million per container vessel. The Financial Times and Reuters carried versions of the claim; Trump warned such charges must stop. Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, posted that the strait "is not open" and that access is "restricted, conditioned and controlled." South Korea's National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac told a Friday briefing that passage "remains disrupted" and that Seoul would pursue alternative crude and naphtha supplies; 26 Korean-flagged ships are among those waiting. Japanese and European governments have activated reserves and urged conservation, from four-day workweeks in the Philippines to free public transit in Australian states.

Analysts diverge on timing. Rockford Weitz of Tufts University called it "the biggest disruption in the history of global oil markets" and said predictable flows require cooperation among the United States, China, Russia and Gulf powers. Usha Haley of Wichita State University noted Iraqi production shut-ins that could take weeks to reverse. Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security said a risk premium would keep prices elevated even if some blocked cargoes reach market soon. Brent crude spiked above $100 per barrel last month, fell sharply on the ceasefire announcement, then climbed back toward $96 as traffic data emerged. The International Monetary Fund plans to downgrade its global growth forecast next week.

Saturday talks in Pakistan between U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf are meant to convert the pause into something durable. Iran's proposal demands acceptance of its nuclear enrichment rights, sanctions relief and inclusion of its regional allies. Israel has begun separate Lebanon negotiations in Washington next week and says it will scale down strikes. Yet mutual accusations continue. Tehran links continued Lebanese fighting to its strait policy. Washington calls Iranian restrictions a breach. Shipping companies, unlike governments, operate with near-zero tolerance for missile or mine risk; war-risk insurance remains expensive and restricted.

The juxtaposition is clear: a truce hailed as averting wider war has not yet restored the flow of energy that underpins the global economy. Until vessels move at something approaching normal volume, or until the two sides agree on what "safe opening" actually means, oil markets, supply chains and consumers from Asia to Europe will continue paying the price.