Hormuz Traffic Stalls Post-Ceasefire as US and Iran Trade Blame Over Tolls and Control
Cover image from foxnews.com, which was analyzed for this article
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill despite the US-Iran ceasefire, with Iran accused of blocking flows and imposing tolls, exacerbating global energy supply concerns. Analysts warn energy prices may take months to normalize, prompting shippers to explore alternative routes amid high air cargo rates and ocean gridlock. The choke point issues are stoking fears of prolonged volatility in oil markets and trade.
PoliticalOS
Friday, April 10, 2026 — Business
The ceasefire has paused active fighting but left the Strait of Hormuz operating at roughly 10 percent of normal capacity because the parties disagree on what reopening actually requires. Iran insists on coordination with its forces and compensatory tolls; the U.S. demands unrestricted passage. Until that contradiction is resolved in Pakistan talks or the two-week clock runs out, energy prices will stay elevated, supply chains will remain strained, and global consumers will bear the cost.
What outlets missed
Most outlets underplayed the explicit terms of Iran's 10-point proposal incorporated into the ceasefire, which requires coordination with Iranian armed forces for any reopening and includes tolls to fund reconstruction of bombed infrastructure. Few connected the low traffic figures to the pre-existing requirement for Iranian permission rather than treating every restricted transit as automatic bad-faith violation. Coverage also largely omitted that the conflict itself escalated after expiration of a prior Twelve-Day War truce on February 28, framing the U.S.-Israeli strikes as the unambiguous start without that context. Insurance and mine-risk details appeared sporadically but rarely alongside verifiable stranded-mariner counts from the IMO or the selective passage of non-oil vessels via IRGC-managed lanes near Larak Island. Finally, immediate post-ceasefire oil price drops of 15 percent in some benchmarks were buried or ignored in favor of longer-term normalization warnings.
Global energy markets face months of volatility as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a fraction of normal volumes even after a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect this week. The narrow waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. A backlog of more than 600 vessels, including hundreds of tankers, has formed in the Persian Gulf, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence and Kpler data. Insurance rates have surged. Alternative routes around Africa add two weeks and 25 percent to costs. Air cargo rates from Asia to Europe have doubled on some lanes, per Flexport and WorldACD figures, as shippers scramble for passenger belly space or reroute via Los Angeles.
The central unresolved question is whether Iran will permit unrestricted commercial traffic under the truce terms before the pause expires, or whether demands for coordination with its forces and disputed tolls will keep the channel effectively closed. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on Tuesday, stating it required the "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING" of the strait. By Thursday he posted on Truth Social that Iran was doing "a very poor job, dishonorable some would say" of complying. Iranian officials countered that the agreement, which incorporates a 10-point Iranian proposal mediated by Pakistan, requires coordination with Iran's armed forces to guarantee security and allows for fees to offset war damage. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that the United States must restrain Israeli strikes on Lebanon or the deal collapses. Those strikes continued Wednesday, killing hundreds according to Lebanese officials, though both Washington and Jerusalem maintain Lebanon falls outside the truce.