Hormuz Traffic Stalls Post-Ceasefire as US and Iran Trade Blame Over Tolls and Control

Despite President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran earlier this week, maritime tracking data shows the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial oil traffic, underscoring the fragility of agreements with a regime that has long used energy as a weapon. A backlog of roughly 3,200 vessels, including 800 tankers and cargo ships, has formed west of the strait, with operators reluctant to risk passage through the narrow chokepoint that normally carries one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

Analysts at Kpler report that no oil tankers have transited the waterway in recent days. Only a handful of vessels have made the journey since the truce took effect, among them a few Iranian-flagged ships and dry bulk carriers. On Wednesday, five vessels crossed, followed by seven on Thursday, a sharp contrast to the 120 to 140 daily transits before the conflict escalated in late February. Matt Smith, a senior analyst at Kpler, described the situation bluntly: the strait is effectively closed, giving Iran continued leverage over global markets.

Trump addressed the issue directly on Thursday, posting on Truth Social that Iran was doing a "very poor job, dishonorable some would say," of honoring the agreement to reopen the waterway. "That is not the agreement we have," he wrote, adding that oil would begin flowing again "with or without the help of Iran." The president also warned against reports that Tehran might impose tolls on passing tankers, stating such fees must stop immediately. His comments came ahead of scheduled talks between U.S. and Iranian officials in Pakistan this weekend, talks now clouded by mutual accusations of bad faith.

The disruption traces back to Iran's decision to choke off the strait in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear and military infrastructure. Tehran also targeted energy facilities in several Gulf states, compounding shortages in oil, gas, helium, and fertilizers derived from those inputs. The resulting price spikes have rippled worldwide. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel last month for the first time since 2022 and has stayed elevated. Experts caution that normalization could take months even if the ceasefire holds, because markets require sustained, predictable flows before confidence returns.

Rockford Weitz, a maritime studies professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School, told Al Jazeera that anyone claiming to know exactly when prices will ease "is lying." The immediate human cost is visible in the Persian Gulf, where nearly 20,000 mariners remain stranded aboard idled ships, according to the International Maritime Organization. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are trapped, Lloyd's List Intelligence reported. South Korea's national security adviser, Wi Sung-lac, said Friday that passage remains disrupted and uncertainty in supply chains will persist. Seoul is actively seeking alternative shipping lanes and crude supplies to protect its economy, which relies heavily on Gulf imports. Twenty-six Korean-flagged ships are among those still waiting.

The ripple effects extend beyond energy. Air cargo rates have nearly doubled on some Asia-to-Europe routes due to high jet fuel prices and reduced Middle East capacity. Freight forwarders are improvising, routing electronics and consumer goods from Asia to Europe via Los Angeles by sea and air to avoid both the African cape route and exorbitant direct flights. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen noted that such hybrid paths are slower than pre-crisis options but far cheaper than current air rates amid a global air cargo capacity drop of more than 50 percent to the Middle East.

Governments are responding with conservation appeals. Thailand has halted fuel exports to safeguard domestic stocks. Other nations in Asia and Africa, where the price shocks hit hardest, are urging citizens to reduce energy use. The International Energy Agency has echoed these calls. Yet such measures treat symptoms rather than the root problem: a single authoritarian actor's ability to throttle a vital international waterway.

Complicating the truce further are continued exchanges involving Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel conducted strikes there this week, including what it described as responses to rocket fire toward its northern cities. Tehran has cited these actions as justification for maintaining restrictions on Hormuz. U.S. officials and analysts express skepticism that the ceasefire will endure without clearer enforcement mechanisms. Gen. Jack Keane, former Army vice chief of staff, told Fox News he remains doubtful, predicting Tehran will "delay and obfuscate."

For markets and ordinary consumers, the lesson is sobering. Secure sea lanes and reliable energy supplies are foundational to prosperity, yet they remain vulnerable to strategic disruption by regimes that prioritize leverage over commerce. With talks looming and traffic still minimal, the coming days will test whether the ceasefire represents a genuine off-ramp or merely a pause in a conflict whose economic costs continue to mount. Shippers, governments, and families worldwide are already adapting to higher prices and longer supply chains, adjustments that rarely fall evenly and often burden those least able to absorb them.