Iran War Sends US Oil and Gas Prices Higher, Straining Farmers

Iran War Sends US Oil and Gas Prices Higher, Straining Farmers

Cover image from salon.com, which was analyzed for this article

High gas prices from Iran war push farmers to the brink and accelerate inflation, roiling bond markets. Officials like Kudlow tell Americans to 'live with it' as a small price for security. Oil rises over 1% post-summit amid unresolved tensions.

PoliticalOS

Friday, May 15, 2026Business

3 min read

The Iran conflict has produced measurable spikes in US fuel and fertilizer costs that are squeezing farmers and lifting pump prices, yet the scale and duration of those effects remain tied to unverified shipping and supply figures. Diplomacy after the Trump-Xi summit has produced only partial alignment on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, leaving markets and producers exposed to continued volatility.

What outlets missed

Most coverage omitted the documented sequence of exhausted diplomacy and Iranian nuclear advances that preceded the February 28 strikes, leaving readers without context on whether the conflict was initiated or reactive. Few pieces reconciled conflicting tanker counts through Hormuz or noted that traffic had already recovered to about 30 permitted passages by mid-May. The absence of verified data on China’s exact share of Iranian oil purchases before the war also left claims about Beijing’s leverage untested across outlets.

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Trump's Iran Standoff Leaves American Farmers and Consumers Paying the Price

American farmers are grappling with sharply higher costs for fuel and fertilizer as President Donald Trump's conflict with Iran enters its third month without a clear end in sight. The spring planting season has arrived amid a stalemate that has sent oil prices climbing past $100 a barrel and left agricultural producers facing some of the steepest input expenses in recent memory.

Third-generation Iowa farmer Alan Montag, who is leasing land near West Bend to plant soybeans, has seen fuel and fertilizer prices spike compared with last spring. Similar pressures are hitting growers across the Midwest and South. In Bertie County, North Carolina, ninth-generation farmer Charles Harden reports a 12-inch rainfall deficit so far this year on top of last year's drought. His operation, Clovergrass Produce, grows soybeans, cucumbers, peanuts and corn while also raising beef cattle. "Right now is harder than any time in the history of our country for agriculture," Harden said.

The economic strain traces directly to the war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28. The fighting has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Although Iran says roughly 30 vessels have passed through since Wednesday evening, that figure remains far below the roughly 140 daily transits recorded before the conflict. An Indian cargo ship carrying livestock was sunk off Oman on Wednesday, and another vessel was seized near the United Arab Emirates, keeping markets on edge.

Oil prices reflected the uncertainty. Brent crude for July delivery rose 2.4 percent to $108.22 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.79 percent to $103.39. The gains followed Trump's two-day summit in Beijing, where he and Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to produce a concrete roadmap to end the fighting. Both leaders said they want Iran to remain non-nuclear and the Strait of Hormuz open, yet Trump later posted on Truth Social that the "military decimation of Iran" could continue. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would work behind the scenes to reopen the waterway, but no timeline or mechanism was announced.

The lack of progress has left markets pricing in continued supply risks. Trump claimed China had agreed to purchase U.S. oil from Texas, Louisiana and Alaska, but Beijing has not confirmed any such purchases. White House officials described the talks as constructive, yet the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough means the conflict remains in limbo.

Inside the administration, some voices have framed higher energy prices as an acceptable trade-off. Fox Business host Larry Kudlow told viewers that $4.50 to $5 gasoline is "a small price to pay to take out Iran" and to prevent nuclear capabilities. He urged Americans to "live with it," predicting prices would fall once the war ends. Such comments come as households already contend with elevated costs for diesel, fertilizer and transportation.

Farmers say the cumulative effect is squeezing margins at a time when weather is also uncooperative. Harden noted that his region typically receives about 50 inches of rain annually; the current shortfall threatens yields across multiple crops. With global fertilizer supplies still tight and fuel costs elevated, many producers are delaying purchases or scaling back acreage.

The impasse in Beijing has dashed hopes that China's influence over Tehran might produce an off-ramp. While both sides agreed in principle that the Strait must stay open, the lack of enforcement details leaves shippers wary. Until a verifiable de-escalation occurs, the combination of higher energy prices and uncertain supply chains will continue to pressure American agriculture and household budgets alike.

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