Markets Rise on Iran Deal Hopes Amid US Strikes

Global markets showed tentative gains Tuesday on signs that talks to end the US-Iran conflict might be advancing, even as fresh American airstrikes hit targets inside Iran and raised fresh doubts about Washington's commitment to diplomacy. US stock futures climbed sharply after President Donald Trump described negotiations with Tehran as proceeding nicely, yet the same day brought confirmation of new US military action in southern Iran that included hits on missile launch sites and boats.

Dow futures rose more than 300 points in early trading, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures each gained around 0.7 percent. The optimism stemmed largely from expectations that a deal could soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the oil supply crunch that has persisted since fighting intensified in late February. South Korean shares surged past the 8,000-point mark for the first time, with the KOSPI closing at a record 8,047 after a 2.55 percent jump driven by the same hopes.

Yet the picture remained far from straightforward. US Central Command described the strikes as defensive measures taken during an ongoing ceasefire, targeting Iranian positions involved in mine-laying operations. Iranian forces reportedly responded by firing at US aircraft and drones. Oil prices reflected the uncertainty, with Brent crude climbing above 98 dollars a barrel after earlier drops below 94, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 5 percent on the day. European shares gave up some recent advances, with the STOXX 600 slipping 0.2 percent amid concerns that the latest military moves could prolong rather than resolve the standoff.

Trump's own comments added to the mixed signals. While he expressed confidence that talks were moving forward, he also warned that the United States stood ready to shift to offensive operations if diplomacy collapsed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated any agreement could still take several days to finalize. Analysts noted that investors had quickly priced in de-escalation last week, only to recalibrate after the strikes became public.

The broader economic backdrop showed how intertwined energy markets and investor sentiment have become with the conflict. Last week's US stock rally, which included a 2.1 percent gain for the Dow, had been fueled in part by falling oil prices. Silver held relatively steady near 77 dollars an ounce despite the volatility, suggesting some investors viewed precious metals as a hedge against ongoing geopolitical risk rather than a direct play on any single outcome.

Regional markets outside the United States displayed similar caution. London's FTSE 100 managed a modest rise, but Germany's DAX declined as traders digested the possibility that military action could drag on. South Korean authorities highlighted heavy trading volume exceeding 39 trillion won, with institutions buying large-cap shares while foreign investors and individuals sold.

The pattern of optimistic rhetoric followed by renewed strikes has left many observers questioning how durable any near-term agreement might prove. With oil supplies still constrained and military exchanges continuing in the Strait of Hormuz, markets appear caught between hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and the reality of persistent US military involvement in the region.