Weak Jobs Data Keeps Yields Elevated, Nasdaq Futures Dip

U.S. Treasury yields remained near multiyear highs on Monday as investors digested the latest signals from the bond market and prepared for fresh economic data and Federal Reserve minutes. The 10-year note traded at 5.273 percent while the 30-year bond sat at 5.626 percent following last week's sharp selloff. A softer-than-expected jobs report had eased some immediate fears of further rate hikes, yet the overall level of yields continued to reflect persistent concerns about inflation and the trajectory of government debt.

Traders now assign an 82 percent probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting. Attention turns next to the Institute for Supply Management services report due Monday and the September Fed minutes scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that the unsettled market makes incoming data and central bank communication especially important, particularly any discussion of the neutral rate and the broader tightening cycle.

Across the Atlantic, the euro fell to a 17-month low against the dollar amid political uncertainty in Spain and France. The common currency dropped 0.6 percent, reaching levels last seen in May 2025. The move coincided with rising borrowing costs across the euro zone as governments confront simultaneous pressures from inflation, higher interest rates, and expanding deficits.

Spain had drawn investor preference earlier in the year because of its growth path and relative fiscal restraint. Even during the recent bond market turbulence, Spanish and Portuguese debt avoided the steeper selloffs seen elsewhere. France, by contrast, has become a focal point for sovereign debt concerns. Economists at Barclays observed that the French government's draft budget aims to narrow the public deficit from 5.4 percent of GDP to 5 percent next year, yet the targets remain unlikely to be met given current spending commitments.

These developments illustrate how sustained government borrowing and expansive fiscal policies transmit costs directly to markets. Elevated yields serve as a price signal that investors require greater compensation for holding longer-term debt when inflation risks and deficit paths remain unresolved. In Europe, political reluctance to restrain spending has amplified volatility in both currency and bond markets.

Market participants continue to monitor how central banks and national governments respond to these pressures. The data releases and policy communications scheduled this week will provide further clarity on whether officials intend to adjust course or maintain current trajectories.