Oil Nears $100 as Ceasefire Doubts Stall Hormuz Traffic

Cover image from rawstory.com, which was analyzed for this article

Oil prices are climbing with Brent crude topping $98 and poised to breach $100 amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz limiting tanker traffic. Doubts over truce terms slow stocks and raise fears of prolonged high energy costs despite de-escalation signs. Gas prices remain elevated in red states, contradicting promises of quick relief post-war.

PoliticalOS

Thursday, April 9, 2026 — Business

4 min read

Despite the announced ceasefire, oil and gas prices are likely to stay elevated for months because reopening the Strait of Hormuz requires resolved security, legal and toll disputes that have no quick fix. The EIA's own forecast shows national averages above $3.60 per gallon into 2027 even under optimistic assumptions. Readers should track Pakistan talks and daily shipping data rather than political promises for any realistic sense of when relief will arrive.

What outlets missed

Most coverage omitted that the EIA operates with statutory independence from political appointees, with its administrator Senate-confirmed and forecasts not requiring White House approval. The two-week ceasefire was explicitly conditional and excluded Lebanon in the U.S.-Israeli interpretation, a fact buried or framed as unilateral Israeli aggression rather than disputed terms. Partial traffic continued with seven to 11 vessels transiting under Iranian coordination in the first 48 hours, contradicting blanket claims of total closure. Several outlets repeated an unverified Trump quote promising rapid price drops without noting the absence of transcripts or video from any nationwide address. Pre-war context on mutual escalations, including Iranian missile strikes on Israeli and Saudi targets that preceded U.S. responses, was routinely dropped in favor of immediate post-ceasefire snapshots.

American drivers face months of elevated fuel costs even if fighting between the United States, Iran and Israel fully stops. Oil markets swung from sharp declines to renewed climbs above $98 a barrel within 24 hours of a two-week ceasefire announcement, reflecting deep skepticism that the truce will quickly restore global energy flows. The central question is whether Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal tanker traffic before the temporary pause expires.

That narrow waterway carries one-fifth of global oil supply. Traffic has slowed to a handful of vessels daily instead of the usual 100 or more, according to maritime tracking firm Windward and shipping brokers. President Trump announced the deal late on April 8, hinging it on immediate, safe reopening of the strait. Iran described the same agreement differently, linking passage to resolution of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and demanding security coordination for all vessels. Vice President JD Vance is set to lead U.S. talks in Pakistan this weekend aimed at bridging those gaps.

Benchmark Brent crude rose 4 percent to $98.70 a barrel on April 9. West Texas Intermediate climbed 5 to 7 percent toward $100. Both benchmarks remain well above the roughly $70 level before fighting intensified in late February. Stocks reversed course too. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each fell about 0.4 percent in early trading after posting 2.5 to 3 percent gains the day prior. European and Asian indices followed similar patterns.

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook on April 8. Even assuming hostilities cease by month's end, the agency projects U.S. retail gasoline will average more than $3.70 per gallon for 2026 and $3.60 in 2027. That compares with a pre-war national average of $3.13. Administrator Tristan Abbey stressed three uncertainties: exact duration of any Hormuz disruption, volume of shut-in production, and the unprecedented mechanics of reopening a closed strait. Restoration, he said, will take months. Current national average pump prices sit near $4.16, according to AAA data cited across multiple outlets, with some Republican-leaning states seeing faster increases.

Israeli strikes on Lebanon hours after the ceasefire announcement killed hundreds and prompted Iran to restrict Hormuz passage further. Both sides accused the other of violating terms. Tehran called the Lebanon action a grave breach. Washington insisted the deal required full strait access regardless. Hezbollah fired rockets at an Israeli community on the same day, according to Israeli and Reuters reporting. The ceasefire explicitly excluded Lebanon in the U.S. and Israeli view but not in Iran's.

Analysts at ING, Macquarie and GasBuddy described the same dynamics in interviews and notes. Wholesale oil prices react instantly to headlines. Retail gasoline moves with a lag as stations work through higher-cost inventory purchased weeks earlier. Prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather, one analyst noted. Fitch Ratings scenario work from March projected $100-plus crude through 2026 under prolonged Hormuz constraints. No major agency forecasts a return to pre-war levels before late 2027 at the earliest.

Talks in Islamabad will confront larger issues: Iran's nuclear program, which Washington wants dismantled and Tehran intends to keep for civilian use, plus reconstruction costs and sanctions relief. Shipping brokers report Iranian warnings that unauthorized vessels will be targeted. Iran has proposed tolls to fund rebuilding. Major oil companies and insurers remain on the sidelines pending clearer rules. Roughly 3,200 vessels and 20,000 seafarers sit waiting west of the strait. The EIA forecast explicitly excluded scenarios in which fighting continues past April.

Consumers in Nevada, California-dependent markets and inland red states have seen the sharpest pain, with prices topping $5 in some areas. The administration's own data agency offered no support for rapid relief. Global inflation pressures, already elevated, could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bond yields rose on the combined signals. The single unresolved tension remains whether diplomats can convert a fragile pause into durable access before markets price in renewed disruption.

Coverage ranged from overt political attacks framing high prices as Trump failure hitting red states hardest, complete with unverified quotes and buried caveats, to dry market-wire updates that stuck to price ticks and analyst notes while soft-pedaling geopolitical origins. Progressive outlets emphasized consumer pain and administration contradictions; conservative and wire services highlighted ceasefire mechanics and eventual relief potential. Centrist reports split the difference but often omitted key context on partial Hormuz traffic or the truce's two-week limit, producing a spectrum from partisan gotcha to incomplete neutrality.

Behind the Coverage

rawstory.com

Most biased

rawstory.com

Most biased

pbs.org

newsmax.com

upi.com

washingtonexaminer.com

businessinsider.com

Least biased

What each outlet got wrong

rawstory.com

Raw Story used a loaded headline and gotcha framing to portray the EIA forecast as proving Trump wrong, with 'Trump promised cheap gas post-war — his own agency's new admission just proved him wrong,' relying on an unverified Trump quote about gas prices rapidly declining post-war. A second article sensationalized red-state price spikes as 'Expert astounded by red state gas price explosion since war began: "Look at this!"' and added 'Even worse for Trump' to imply partisan pain.

Our version: The neutral version presents the EIA forecast with its explicit uncertainties and independence upfront, without political gotchas or unverified quotes, and balances market swings including post-ceasefire plunges.

pbs.org

PBS sequenced events to imply Israeli strikes caused Iranian Strait closure and market doubts, stating 'Doubts about the durability of the ceasefire arose just hours after the announcement as a round of intense Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed and injured hundreds. Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz in response.'

Our version: The neutral version clarifies both sides' accusations of violations, notes Hezbollah rocket fire on the same day, and explains differing views on whether the ceasefire excluded Lebanon.

newsmax.com

Newsmax cited an unverified 'March 23, 2026 scenario analysis from Fitch Ratings' warning of $100+ oil through 2026 from Hormuz disruption and used passive phrasing like 'before the war with Iran began' to downplay U.S. initiation via strikes.

Our version: The neutral version references verified analyst notes from ING, Macquarie, and GasBuddy without unverified projections and provides balanced context on conflict triggers without assigning sole blame.

upi.com

UPI employed a sensational headline 'Oil prices poised to breach $100 level as Iran cease-fire fears mount' and quoted an unverified SSY Global claim of Iranian navy warnings that unauthorized vessels 'will be targeted and destroyed.'

Our version: The neutral version reports actual price levels and traffic data from Windward without predictive hype or unverified threats, focusing on verified shipping broker reports.

washingtonexaminer.com

Washington Examiner framed the ceasefire as Trump's brokered success with 'President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,' overstating the Strait as fully 'opened for oil tankers' despite ongoing restrictions.

Our version: The neutral version describes the truce as a temporary two-week pause with differing interpretations by U.S. and Iran, and notes slowed but not zero Hormuz traffic.

businessinsider.com

Business Insider emphasized Iranian obstruction with Windward's quote 'The strait has not reopened — it is in a supervised pause' and ADNOC CEO's unverified claim of Iran's 'coercion,' relying heavily on sources with commercial incentives to highlight risks.

Our version: The neutral version uses Windward data neutrally alongside broker reports on Iranian warnings and proposals like tolls, without framing as unilateral coercion.

Facts outlets left out

EIA's statutory independence from political appointees

Omitted by: rawstory.com

Hezbollah fired rockets at an Israeli community on April 8

Omitted by: pbs.org

U.S.-Israeli strikes initiated hostilities in late February 2026

Omitted by: newsmax.com

Record 16% WTI plunge on April 8 post-ceasefire announcement

Omitted by: rawstory.com, upi.com

Ceasefire explicitly excluded Lebanon in U.S./Israeli view

Omitted by: pbs.org

Ceasefire is conditional two-week truce, not permanent reopening

Omitted by: washingtonexaminer.com

Framing tricks we caught

Loaded headline

“Raw Story: 'Trump promised cheap gas post-war — his own agency's new admission just proved him wrong'”

Neutral alternative: Neutral version leads with market skepticism and EIA uncertainties without tying to unverified political promises.

Selective sequencing

“PBS: Places Israeli strikes immediately after ceasefire announcement to imply causation of doubts and closure”

Neutral alternative: Neutral version sequences mutual accusations and same-day Hezbollah actions for balanced violation claims.

Partisan cherry-picking

“Raw Story: Spotlights red states with fastest price rises as 'Even worse for Trump' per CNN analyst”

Neutral alternative: Neutral version notes sharpest pain in specific markets like Nevada/California-dependent and inland red states without partisan spin.

Sensational prediction

“UPI: 'Oil prices poised to breach $100 level as Iran cease-fire fears mount'”

Neutral alternative: Neutral version reports actual climbs to $98.70 Brent and toward $100 WTI without hype on breaching thresholds.