Saudi Pipeline Back at 7M Barrels Daily After Attacks

Global energy markets gained a measure of relief Sunday as Saudi Arabia restored its East-West oil pipeline to full capacity. The move eases strains that began when Iranian attacks slashed output during the conflict that erupted in late February between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition. Oil prices, which had spiked above $100 per barrel amid the disruptions, have since moderated. Yet one question hangs over every trading floor and foreign ministry: how durable is the fragile ceasefire now in its second week?

The Saudi Ministry of Energy announced the pipeline, which runs from the Abqaiq complex in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea, has returned to 7 million barrels per day. Repair crews worked quickly after strikes on a pumping station that the Saudi Press Agency said cut daily output by 700,000 barrels. The same announcement confirmed full restoration at the offshore Manifa field to 300,000 barrels per day. Work continues at the inland Khurais field, where capacity remains offline by roughly 300,000 barrels daily, according to the ministry.

These figures matter because the East-West line has become a vital alternative route. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage carrying one-fifth of global oil and LNG — had already tightened supplies worldwide. Shipping data from S&P Global showed only 22 vessels with transponders active in the strait between Wednesday and Friday, against a pre-war average of 135 daily transits. Three supertankers exited over the weekend, according to London Stock Exchange Group and Kpler tracking, each capable of moving 2 million barrels. Hundreds more remain queued in the Gulf.

The attacks fit a wider pattern. Iranian missiles and drones struck US assets across six Gulf Cooperation Council states, including energy sites in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE. Tehran described the actions as retaliation. Saudi officials have not publicly assigned blame for the specific hits on their facilities. The ministry instead highlighted what it called the “high operational resilience” of Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, and the broader energy system in maintaining supply continuity.

Analysts watching from outside the region see both promise and limits. Restoration of the pipeline and Manifa output removes roughly 1 million barrels per day of earlier cuts, according to combined ministry and Saudi Press Agency statements. That helps offset some — but not all — of the Hormuz disruption. Morgan Stanley strategists told clients that lower oil prices could support Chinese importers and lift beaten-down stocks such as BYD, Li Auto and Sinopec, with specific price targets cited in their note. US production, which reached 13.6 million barrels per day last year per Energy Information Administration data, continues to grow through horizontal drilling and AI-assisted fracking; Chevron alone operates more than 4,000 wells in Colorado’s DJ Basin. These parallel supply streams matter. They reduce single-point vulnerability.

The central tension remains unresolved. Ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran have produced no comprehensive agreement on reopening the strait or guaranteeing pipeline security. Israel conducted additional strikes after the truce announcement, Reuters reported. Iranian state media signaled possible further retaliation. Qatar released footage of damage to civilian and energy infrastructure from Iranian attacks. Repair timelines for Khurais have not been disclosed. Independent verification of exact damage — through satellite imagery or third-party engineers — has been limited in public reporting.

Market reaction has been measured. Brent crude fell about 5 percent in the days after ceasefire news but remains elevated versus pre-war levels. Related equities in Asia and energy-adjacent sectors show tentative buying. Longer term, the episode underscores both Saudi infrastructure’s ability to rebound and the persistent risks tied to any single chokepoint in a geopolitically volatile region. Full stabilization will require more than one pipeline returning to nameplate capacity.