Trump's Iran Focus Deepens Economic Pain as Diesel Surges and Polls Slide

President Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to the lowest level of his two terms as the ongoing conflict with Iran disrupts fuel supplies and raises costs for American businesses and households. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey released this week found that 40 percent of respondents approve of the president’s job performance while 58 percent disapprove, producing a net approval of negative 18. That represents a 10-point decline from the previous quarter and the sharpest drop since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

The survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, shows disapproval rising across party lines. Republican net approval fell 17 points, the lowest reading since 2017. While self-described MAGA voters remain steadfast at 96 percent approval, support among non-MAGA Republicans dropped 19 points to 60 percent. Independent and Democratic numbers reached record lows as well.

Pollsters and political observers tie the slide directly to widespread frustration over high energy prices and the perception that the administration has taken its eye off domestic economic concerns. The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, which began in late February, has constricted oil flows through the Persian Gulf. Diesel fuel, critical for trucking, shipping, and heavy industry, has been hit harder than gasoline. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average national price of diesel has climbed about 45 percent since the conflict started, compared with a 35 percent rise for regular gasoline. Forecasts suggest diesel could peak above $5.80 per gallon this month while gasoline averages around $4.30.

That gap matters because diesel powers the supply chain that delivers most consumer goods. Trucking firms, farmers, and manufacturers face higher operating costs that eventually pass through to retail prices. One energy strategist noted that pre-war diesel inventories were already thin, leaving little cushion when Persian Gulf producers cut exports. Regional crude grades suited to making diesel and jet fuel compounded the shortage, while gasoline supply proved more resilient.

These figures arrive at a politically sensitive moment. Midterm elections are six months away, and some Republicans worry that the president’s public focus has drifted. In a four-day stretch earlier this month, Trump’s Truth Social feed featured comments on a proposed triumphal arch, White House ballroom renovations, the Iran conflict, a planned UFC event, and an aside about singer Bruce Springsteen. An AI-generated image of the president as Jesus, later deleted, drew additional attention. Economic topics were largely absent until a recent pivot toward cost-of-living issues. Critics inside the party say voters still associate Trump with pre-pandemic growth and expect him to deliver similar results. When the president has addressed fuel costs, he has described current gasoline prices as “not very high,” a characterization that clashes with AAA data showing pump prices 27 percent above year-ago levels.

Yet the administration’s Iran policy itself aligns with public sentiment. Multiple polls conducted before and during the conflict show strong concern about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. A Harvard-Harris survey found 76 percent of Americans ranking Iran’s nuclear program as a top foreign-policy priority. YouGov data consistently classify Iran as an “enemy” or “unfriendly” nation in the eyes of most respondents. After last year’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, 78 percent held negative views of the regime, including 58 percent who labeled it an enemy. Those numbers exceed negative sentiment toward Russia or China.

The White House has complemented military action with economic pressure. The Treasury Department recently sent lists of sanctions-evading banks to the United Arab Emirates, Oman, China, and Hong Kong, warning that continued financial support for Tehran will invite consequences. A military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz aims to further restrict Iranian oil revenue. Enforcement, however, faces hurdles. Turkey has emerged as a conspicuous weak point. Iranian-linked currency exchange houses in Istanbul and Ankara operate with minimal oversight, allowing Tehran to move funds outside the SWIFT system. These networks have reportedly helped Iran’s Ministry of Defense and facilitated oil sales. U.S. officials designated one Iranian-Turkish operator a terrorist in 2024, yet the broader Turkish conduit remains active.

Public Opinion Strategies partner Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster for the CNBC survey, cautioned against overinterpreting the approval drop. He described the five-point decline as modest given the scale of events, noting that core Republican support, especially among MAGA voters, has held firm at high levels. Roberts characterized the current period as one of significant disruption but suggested the president retains a motivated base.

The diesel shock illustrates a classic economic reality: military conflict in energy chokepoints ripples quickly through interconnected markets. Transportation and logistics, which run on diesel, face the steepest immediate pressure. If the price disparity persists, the cost of moving freight could dampen broader growth and complicate the administration’s efforts to claim credit for economic stewardship ahead of November. Whether voters weigh the strategic necessity of confronting Iran against the pocketbook consequences will likely shape the political landscape in the months ahead.