Trump Says Iran War 'Very Close to Over' as Fragile Ceasefire Nears Expiration

Global oil markets eased and stocks climbed Wednesday on signals that the seven-week war between the United States and Iran might be winding down. Yet thousands are already dead, millions displaced, and a two-week ceasefire imposed on April 8 faces expiration on April 22 with no final agreement in sight. The central tension is whether American military pressure, including a newly enforced blockade of Iranian ports, can extract nuclear concessions Tehran has repeatedly rejected or whether stalled talks and mutual accusations will restart the fighting.

President Trump told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo that he views the conflict as "very close to being over." He said U.S. strikes had "obliterated" Iranian capabilities, leaving the regime unable to survive much longer, according to a transcript of the interview that aired April 15. Trump added that Washington could destroy every Iranian bridge and power plant within an hour but preferred not to because reconstruction would take years. He told the New York Post that fresh negotiations could begin within two days in Pakistan, praising army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for facilitating the process. A senior Pakistani official said talks were expected soon but might slip by a day or two beyond Trump's timeline.

The first round of direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 lasted more than 20 hours before collapsing, according to multiple diplomats briefed on the sessions. Vice President JD Vance, who led the American side, said the gap centered on the future of Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of all enrichment activity; Iran countered with a three-to-five-year halt and demanded sanctions relief plus guarantees on the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later told the Post he opposed any deal that would let Iran "feel like they have a win." Iranian officials described American demands as maximalist and said the U.S. had failed to build trust, per accounts shared with Reuters and Al Jazeera.

On April 13 the U.S. Central Command declared a blockade of all Iranian ports fully implemented. Admiral Brad Cooper stated that sea trade, which accounts for an estimated 90 percent of Iran's economy, had been halted within 36 hours. Central Command reported that no vessels breached the line in the first day and that six merchant ships were turned back. However, maritime tracking data cited by CNBC and Reuters showed at least one U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker and several other vessels transiting the strait with minimal disruption in the initial hours. Iran labeled the blockade "piracy" and warned that any military approach to the strait would violate the ceasefire.

The war began February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. Some reports, including those referenced by the Institute for the Study of War, indicate the campaign included the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, though this detail has not been corroborated by all major outlets. By mid-April, casualty estimates varied widely. NPR and humanitarian monitors reported more than 1,200 Iranian civilians killed, 3.2 million displaced internally, and at least 25 hospitals damaged. Reuters, citing unspecified tallies, put total deaths near 5,000 across Iran and Lebanon, including combatants. These figures could not be independently verified in real time.

Market reaction was immediate. Benchmark oil fell below $100 a barrel for a second straight day as traders priced in the possibility of resumed flows. The Dow and S&P 500 posted modest gains. Yet the International Monetary Fund warned that prolonging the conflict risked an energy crisis and broader recession. China called the blockade "dangerous and irresponsible." European allies expressed concern over both the humanitarian toll and potential spillover.

Vance struck a measured tone at a Turning Point USA event in Georgia. He acknowledged deep mistrust built over 49 years but said the Iranian side appeared interested in a deal. "You're not going to solve that problem overnight," he said. Back-channel discussions continued after the Islamabad collapse, according to officials from Pakistan, Iran and Gulf states, with one source telling Reuters that progress had narrowed the nuclear gap.

Whether the ceasefire holds now depends on whether the blockade's leverage produces a breakthrough before April 22 or simply hardens positions on both sides. Trump has insisted the war prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Tehran maintains its program is civilian. The coming days will test which assessment prevails.