Gas Prices Hit $4.48 as Hormuz Tensions Drive Oil Volatility

The national average price for regular gasoline climbed to $4.48 per gallon on Tuesday, a 30-cent increase in a single week and the highest level recorded since 2022, according to AAA data. The price has now risen for thirteen consecutive days, ending a brief period in which costs had fluctuated between just under $4 and slightly above that threshold. For context, the national average stood at $4.18 only seven days earlier and had fallen as low as $2.79 in mid-January, a five-year low.

The acceleration traces directly to the U.S. conflict with Iran that began in late February. Winter weather initially disrupted refinery operations, but the sharpest increases followed military strikes and the ensuing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes. By late March the average had reached $4.02. It touched $4.16 in early April before resuming its climb. Democrats have repeatedly identified the Trump administration’s decision to engage in direct military action against Iran as the dominant factor, arguing that the war has produced the very energy shock critics predicted.

President Trump addressed the increases Tuesday, telling reporters that prices would “come crashing down” once the conflict ends. Administration officials have framed the operation as necessary to protect shipping lanes and deter Iranian aggression. Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on CNN in April and offered an assessment of price trends that drew criticism for seeming to minimize the scale of the problem. The mixed messages have contributed to public frustration at a moment when many households are already feeling the cumulative effect of elevated costs.

The conflict’s reach now extends beyond fuel. Oil prices remain elevated even after a modest pullback Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading near $104 a barrel and Brent crude above $112. Recent exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates and reported U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels, have kept markets on edge. The administration announced that the Navy would escort neutral commercial ships through the passage under what it calls “Project Freedom.” The first days of the operation produced immediate Iranian countermoves, and a fragile truce is now in place.

Economists and analysts warn that the disruption is not limited to the price at the pump. New York University professor Scott Galloway, writing in a widely circulated Medium post, argued that observers are underestimating second-order consequences. With freedom of navigation compromised for more than two months, supply chains are absorbing higher energy costs that translate into higher prices for plastics, chemicals, and finished goods. A Malaysian company that produces one-fifth of the world’s condoms has already announced price increases of as much as 30 percent. Chemical giant Dow is doubling previously planned price hikes for certain polymers. Galloway described the potential for a world of “toll booths” at critical maritime chokepoints, a scenario that could permanently raise baseline costs for global trade if not resolved.

These pressures arrive as Americans prepare for the summer driving season. Industry forecasts already point to higher travel costs, additional airline fees, and possible cancellations as carriers pass on elevated fuel expenses. The broader inflation picture has darkened. Sustained high oil prices increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will face renewed pressure on interest rates, complicating the path back to price stability.

Financial markets offered a mixed verdict Tuesday. Stock futures rose modestly after the latest oil dip and a series of strong corporate earnings reports. Pfizer and Anheuser-Busch InBev both exceeded expectations, lifting their shares in pre-market trading. Yet commodity markets reflected anxiety. Gold futures opened at $4,534 per ounce, the lowest opening level in more than a month, while silver also fell sharply. The moves suggest investors are reassessing safe-haven demand even as longer-term uncertainty persists.

The episode illustrates the tight connection between foreign policy choices and domestic economic conditions. When the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets in February, few analysts expected the energy market to remain calm. The return of gasoline prices above $4 a gallon has now made the linkage concrete for millions of drivers filling tanks in advance of Memorial Day weekend. How long the current price plateau lasts will depend on whether the tenuous cease-fire in the Persian Gulf holds and whether the Trump administration can translate its military posture into a durable agreement that restores reliable oil flows.

For now, the data show a clear trajectory. A winter season that began with unusually low fuel costs has given way to a spring and summer defined by the economic drag of war. Whether that drag proves temporary, as the president asserts, or settles into a new and higher baseline will shape consumer confidence, inflation expectations, and political debate through the remainder of the year.