US Inflation Hits 3.7% in September, Fueling Voter Anxiety Before Midterms

A new poll shows deepening frustration with economic conditions among key voting blocs just weeks before the November midterms, with independents and even some Republicans expressing sharp doubts about the direction of the economy under President Trump. The survey, conducted by Harris for the Guardian, found that 65 percent of independents now describe the economy as getting worse, a sharp rise from 48 percent who said the same during the 2024 presidential campaign. Among Republicans, optimism has also faded, dropping to 28 percent who say conditions are improving, down from 49 percent earlier in the year.

The findings point to prices at the grocery store and gas pump as the dominant concern for voters. Two-thirds of those surveyed identified gas and food costs as their top issues heading into the election, ahead of broader living expenses or health care. This focus persists even as official data indicate the economy is not in recession by standard measures. Still, 61 percent of respondents believe the country is already in one, and three-quarters expressed worry that a downturn is coming.

These perceptions appear to be reshaping the political map in competitive districts. Republicans have counted on strong support from rural voters and a reliable base, yet the poll shows erosion even there. Independents, who often decide close races, are registering the steepest shift in sentiment. High prices have lingered from earlier inflation spikes and recent fuel cost increases, creating a gap between statistical indicators and household experiences that analysts say tends to favor challengers in midterm environments.

Trump has sought to downplay the inflation data on the campaign trail, arguing that underlying strength in employment and growth will eventually register with voters. The message has not fully landed with the groups the poll identifies as most unsettled. Market movements in recent sessions, including declines in technology shares tied to concerns over artificial intelligence spending, have added to a sense of uncertainty without yet altering the broader employment picture.

The disconnect between measured economic performance and public views is not new, but it carries particular weight in a midterm cycle where control of Congress is at stake. Voters who report feeling squeezed by daily costs often prioritize those pressures over longer-term trends. With the election less than three weeks away, the poll suggests Republicans face a narrowing path to hold their majorities if the current mood holds among independents and persuadable Republicans. Democrats, for their part, will need to show they can address the same price concerns without reigniting broader inflation fears that have dogged recent cycles.

The data underscore how economic sentiment can diverge from official statistics in ways that directly influence turnout and preference. Whether that divergence narrows or widens before Election Day will likely determine the balance of power in the next Congress.