US Inflation Hits 3.7% in September, Fueling Voter Anxiety Before Midterms

A new poll reveals deepening pessimism among key voting blocs about the state of the US economy less than three weeks before the midterm elections. The Harris poll conducted for the Guardian found that independents, rural voters and even some Republicans are turning against Donald Trump's economic record amid persistent high prices for groceries and fuel.

Three quarters of Americans surveyed expressed concern about a possible recession, while 61 percent incorrectly believe the country is already in one. The US economy does not meet the standard definition of a recession at present. Two thirds of respondents said gas and grocery prices rank as their top election issues, ahead of broader living costs, healthcare and foreign policy.

Support among independents has eroded sharply. Sixty five percent now say the economy is getting worse, a jump from 48 percent who held that view during the 2024 presidential campaign. Republicans have also grown less optimistic. In February 2025 shortly after Trump's inauguration, 39 percent of the party said the economy was improving. That figure rose to 49 percent by February 2026 but has since fallen to just 28 percent.

The findings align with separate reports of inflation climbing to 3.7 percent, driven in part by rising fuel prices. Market indicators have reflected unease as well, with major stock indexes posting losses amid worries over tech spending and broader economic pressures. On the campaign trail Trump has dismissed the inflation spike, yet the poll suggests voters are not so easily reassured.

Independent voters are widely viewed as decisive in competitive House and Senate races. Their growing dissatisfaction with prices and the overall direction of the economy could complicate Republican efforts to retain congressional majorities. Rural voters, another group Trump has counted on, showed similar signs of frustration in the survey.

The poll underscores how everyday costs continue to shape voter sentiment more than abstract economic indicators. Even as some Republicans initially credited Trump with an economic rebound after taking office, recent months have seen that confidence fade. With election day approaching, the data points to a challenging environment for the president's party as it seeks to convince voters that conditions are improving.