Low US Fertility, Aging and AI Threaten Long-Term Fiscal Stability

Washington finds itself confronting a stark reality that elites have spent decades downplaying or ignoring. Americans are having far fewer children than at any time in modern history, a trend that is accelerating and threatening the foundations of the nation's economy, its entitlement programs, and its long-term stability. New government figures released this month show the U.S. fertility rate dropping to a record low of 1.57 children per woman in 2025, below even the already pessimistic projections from the Congressional Budget Office.

This marks the latest data point in a sustained decline that has persisted since the Great Recession. The United States has not reached the 2.1 children per woman needed for a stable population in nearly two decades. While the overall population has not yet begun to shrink, the rapid aging of society is unmistakable and its consequences are already visible. In 2000, there were roughly 24 Americans aged 65 and older for every 100 working-age adults. By mid-century that ratio will climb to 43 seniors per 100 workers, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. The burden of supporting a swelling retired population falls on a narrower base of taxpayers, driving up costs for Medicare and Social Security.

Spending on these old-age entitlements is expected to nearly double as a share of the economy, rising from 6 percent of GDP at the turn of the century to 12.7 percent by 2055. Much of that increase stems directly from demographic change rather than expanded benefits. The result is larger fiscal deficits and a national debt that grows heavier with each passing year. What began as warnings about overpopulation from figures like Paul Ehrlich in the 1960s has flipped into a genuine underpopulation challenge. The environmentalist's dire predictions of mass starvation never materialized. Instead, the country faces the slower-moving but equally serious threat of too few young people to sustain the workforce, fund government promises, and maintain the vitality that has defined American life.

This is not an abstract problem confined to spreadsheets in Washington. Working families across the heartland feel the pressure in concrete ways. Sky-high housing costs, stagnant wages for non-college workers, and a culture that often treats children as lifestyle accessories rather than the core purpose of adult life have combined to discourage larger families. Young Americans delay marriage and childbearing, sometimes indefinitely, while policymakers have largely focused on other priorities. The consequences compound over time. Fewer births today mean fewer workers and taxpayers tomorrow, which in turn squeezes the very programs that millions of retirees depend upon.

Some on the left have suggested automation and artificial intelligence will simply replace the missing workers, allowing the country to maintain its standard of living without addressing root causes. Yet this view overlooks the human element. Machines cannot replace the cultural transmission that occurs in stable families, nor can they magically expand the tax base needed to fund trillions in promised benefits. Debt-financed imports of foreign labor have been the preferred elite solution for years, but that approach brings its own strains on social cohesion, wages, and national identity.

In response to the gathering crisis, conservative policy institutions are advancing concrete proposals aimed at reversing the collapse in family formation. A recent report from the Heritage Foundation titled "Saving America by Saving the Family" calls for aggressive steps to put marriage and children back at the center of American life. Among the ideas is a federally supported "marriage bootcamp" program run through the Department of Health and Human Services in partnership with churches and private groups. Cohabiting couples with children would be invited to intensive counseling and education sessions. Those who complete the program would receive a communal wedding ceremony and a $5,000 payment to help establish a stable household, along with ongoing mentorship from established married couples.

The report also urges expanding financial incentives for family formation. It proposes building on the concept of Trump Accounts, which provide every newborn with a $1,000 government investment account. A new program called New Early Starter Trust accounts would seed each child's fund with at least $2,500 at birth. Young adults could access the money upon marrying before a certain age or reaching 30, with favorable tax treatment to encourage early family formation rather than prolonged single adulthood. Additional recommendations include a national messaging campaign from HHS with straightforward pro-marriage slogans and new initiatives focused on parenting skills and father involvement.

Critics, including some libertarians, point out that previous government-backed marriage promotion efforts produced only modest results. They question whether Washington should involve itself so directly in intimate decisions. Yet the scale of the demographic problem has changed the calculation for many on the right. With fertility rates continuing to fall and entitlement costs projected to consume ever-larger shares of national output, doing nothing carries far greater risks. The alternative is a future of chronic labor shortages, crushing tax burdens on younger generations, and a hollowed-out society unable to reproduce itself.

The data now coming from the federal government confirms what many ordinary Americans have sensed for years. The country is aging rapidly, its debts are mounting, and its birth rate is collapsing. Whether conservative proposals to pay young people to marry and have children can bend the curve remains to be seen. What is no longer in doubt is that the status quo leads toward decline. Policymakers who continue to treat falling fertility as a minor cultural curiosity rather than a national emergency do so at the peril of the next generation.