White House Emails Staff on Ethics Rules for Prediction Market Bets

The White House sent a pointed email to staff on March 24 warning that using nonpublic government information to bet on online prediction markets is a criminal offense and a serious ethics violation. The message from the White House Management Office came one day after President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants. It explicitly referenced recent press reports about government officials placing wagers on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

Multiple outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, CBS News, BBC and Reuters reported the email after it was obtained or described by administration officials. The notice reminded employees that federal ethics rules prohibit exploiting confidential information for personal or third-party financial gain. It stressed that such misuse “will not be tolerated.”

The timing of the warning is notable. It arrived amid a pattern of unusually well-timed trades tied to Trump administration decisions on Iran. Exchange data reviewed by Reuters showed unidentified traders placed roughly $500 million in bets on Brent and WTI crude futures within a single minute shortly before the March 23 pause announcement. Oil prices subsequently fell 15 percent. On Polymarket, more than 50 new accounts appeared minutes before a recent Iran ceasefire announcement, with three accounts alone profiting more than $600,000 by correctly forecasting the timing, according to The Wall Street Journal.

These episodes echo an earlier controversy. In January an anonymous Polymarket user earned nearly $500,000 betting on the exact timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces. The account’s perfect timing again raised questions about possible leaks of sensitive operational details. Prediction markets allow bets on geopolitical events, interest-rate decisions, election outcomes and more. Because trades are executed in cryptocurrency, they are difficult to trace to specific individuals.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle rejected any implication of wrongdoing. “Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” he told multiple outlets. Ingle repeated that President Trump wants a “strong and profitable stock market for everyone” while insisting that members of Congress and government officials must not use nonpublic information for financial benefit. He added that all federal employees remain subject to standard ethics guidelines.

Critics nevertheless point to broader patterns. Trump has repeatedly adjusted or softened public threats when financial markets reacted negatively, a phenomenon traders have dubbed “TACO” for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The president also maintains direct family ties to the prediction industry. His son Donald Trump Jr. serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket. The Trump family’s social media company announced plans last year to build its own prediction-market product. While no rule explicitly bars public officials from participating in these markets, the combination of privileged access, opaque crypto transactions and large, precisely timed wins has intensified calls for tighter regulation.

Polymarket and Kalshi have grown rapidly by framing their platforms as information markets rather than traditional gambling. Their owners argue the products more closely resemble investing. Yet the surge in bets on active military and diplomatic decisions has alarmed lawmakers. A U.S. congressman cited in BBC reporting this week questioned how the industry should be overseen when national-security information appears to influence private profits.

The March 24 email itself appears reactive. It acknowledges “recent press reports” that triggered concern inside the West Wing. Administration officials told CBS News the message was intended to reinforce existing rules rather than respond to any specific internal investigation. No public probe into the suspicious trades has been announced, and the anonymous nature of the platforms makes linking bets to White House personnel extremely difficult.

The episode highlights ongoing tension between the Trump administration’s market-friendly rhetoric and persistent questions about whether insiders are monetizing access to sensitive national-security decisions. With conflicts involving Iran still fluid and oil markets volatile, further well-timed bets could renew pressure for congressional scrutiny of both prediction platforms and potential leaks from within government. For now the White House has chosen a written reminder over deeper public accountability, leaving the string of improbably accurate wagers as an unresolved cloud over its handling of the Iran crisis.